A brief analysis of pump.fun data: Degen’s “non-return-to-zero” internal reference

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Original author: Moonke Dev (X: @moonkedev)

1/5 As a degen on @pumpdotfun, how likely are you to lose money? We analyzed 75,991 tokens created on @pumpdotfun from June 10th to June 16th. Lets dive in.

A brief analysis of pump.fun data: Degen’s “non-return-to-zero” internal reference

2/5 How many pumpfun tokens will be successfully listed on Raydium? Of the 75,991 tokens created between June 10 and June 16, only 1.42% were listed on Raydium. 85.85% of the new tokens were created by unique wallets, while 14.15% were created by duplicate wallets.

3/5How long does it take for a token to be listed on Raydium? Among all the tokens deployed from pumpfun to Radydium:

  • 50th percentile token: 15 minutes to list on Raydium

  • 75th percentile token: 59 minutes to list Raydium

  • 90th percentile token: 4.9 hours to list Raydium

If your tokens are not deployed on Raydium within 5 hours, you may lose this opportunity forever.

4/5What is the probability that your investment will go to zero? Of the 75,991 tokens we queried, 97.43% have a liquidity of less than 1 SOL, and 98.41% have a liquidity of less than 10 SOL. If your token is not deployed on Raydium, the probability that your investment will go to zero is more than 99%.

A brief analysis of pump.fun data: Degen’s “non-return-to-zero” internal reference

5/5 Lessons for degens:

1. Only about 1.4% of tokens are ultimately deployed on Raydium

2. If the token is not deployed on Raydium within 1 hour, consider Jeet (early exit). Otherwise, there is a 99% chance that your investment will be “zero”

3. Follow @moonkebiz and @moonkedev to get memecoin related alpha information

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