Trump, the world’s largest oil trader

How much can a single post be worth?

At 7:05 AM Eastern Time on March 23, Trump posted an all-caps message on Truth Social, the gist of which was: The US and Iran have had “very good, productive conversations” over the past two days, and he has ordered a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian power plants and energy facilities.

When this post was published, the US stock market had not yet opened. But the futures market is real-time.

Within minutes, Dow Jones futures surged by over 1,000 points, and S&P 500 futures rose by 2.7%. Brent crude oil plummeted from $113 per barrel to $98, a drop exceeding 13%.

A reporter from the well-known foreign media outlet *Fortune* later calculated that from the moment the post was published until the market fully digested it, the total market capitalization of US stocks increased by approximately $1.7 trillion.

If you were an ordinary trader and posted a message on social media about oil supply, causing a 13% global oil price crash, regulators would likely be at your door within 24 hours.

But if you are the President of the United States, this is called diplomacy.

Then Iran said: We haven’t spoken with him.

The Iranian state news agency quoted a security official stating there have been no direct or indirect talks between Tehran and Washington. Iranian scholar Seyed Mohammad Marandi wrote more bluntly on X:

“Every week when the market opens, Trump issues such statements to push down oil prices. This time, he even conveniently set the five-day deadline to coincide with the close of the energy market trading week.”

When the news reached the US, the market gains were nearly halved. But by the close, the Dow was still up 631 points, and Brent crude settled at $99.94, falling below $100 for the first time since March 11. In other words, the market chose to believe Trump’s version, at least halfway.

One post, one hour, trillions of dollars swinging back and forth.

This is less like a president issuing a diplomatic statement and more like the world’s largest oil trader placing an order.

And the tools in his hands are not futures contracts, but the US military and Truth Social. Other traders use money to go long or short; he uses the switch of war.

According to CNBC, about 15 minutes before the post was published, around 6:50 AM New York time, there was a simultaneous abnormal surge in trading volume for both S&P 500 futures and crude oil futures.

In the thin-liquidity pre-market session, such a sudden, isolated spike in volume is very conspicuous.

Fifteen minutes later, the post went out, oil prices crashed, and stock indices soared. This means whoever acted at 6:50 AM made money after 7:05 AM. In the commodities market, building positions precisely ahead of major news is one of the most classic forms of insider trading.

Source: CNBC, S&P 500 Pre-Market Trading Volume Spike

In April last year, when Trump’s repeated reversals on tariff policy caused severe market volatility, Senator Adam Schiff publicly questioned: Who knew what the president was going to say before he posted? No one provided an answer then.

This time, CNBC contacted the SEC and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The responses from both institutions were identical: declined to comment.

And this is not the first time. Looking back, Trump moving oil prices with his mouth has been going on for nearly a decade.

The Mouth Business

Trump started talking about oil prices on social media as early as 2011. Back then, he wasn’t president, and lambasting OPEC for market manipulation was part of his regular content. But ranting is one thing; a real estate developer complaining on Twitter is quite different from manipulating oil prices.

What truly transformed him from a “commentator” to a “trader” was a deal in 2020.

At the beginning of that year, the COVID-19 pandemic erupted, the global economy ground to a halt, and oil demand plummeted. Making matters worse, Saudi Arabia and Russia engaged in a price war, mutually increasing production to grab market share, driving oil prices down to around $20 per barrel. US shale oil companies collapsed in droves, and the entire industry was in despair.

By normal logic, low oil prices are good for consumers—gas is cheaper. A president concerned about voters’ interests should welcome this.

But Trump did the opposite.

He invited a roomful of oil company CEOs to the White House for a meeting. Then he personally called Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin, persuading them to join OPEC in implementing large-scale production cuts. The goal was singular:

To push oil prices back up.

Subsequently, he posted a tweet hinting at an imminent production cut agreement. That day, WTI crude oil surged 25%, marking the largest single-day gain in history.

Why save oil prices? Because those shale oil company bosses on the verge of bankruptcy were his biggest political donors.

According to public reports, oil tycoon Harold Hamm saw his personal wealth evaporate by $3 billion in a few days during the oil price crash and immediately lobbied Trump to intervene. NBC’s headline at the time was direct: “Trump wanted lower oil prices. Now he’s talking to oil execs about raising them.”

The essence of this deal was: global consumers paid for higher oil prices, the profits flowed to his political donors, and he himself reaped the next round of campaign funds.

If the matter ended there, it could still be categorized as “political horse-trading.” But Trump did something no politician would do—he publicly admitted it.

At subsequent campaign rallies, he repeatedly told his supporters:

“We got oil prices too low, we had to save the oil companies. I called OPEC, I called Russia and Saudi Arabia, told them the price has to come up.”

The crowd erupted in applause.

Source: Visual Capitalist

In 2023, the academic journal *Energy Policy* published a paper reviewing all of Trump’s social media posts related to oil from his announcement of candidacy in 2015 until his account was suspended in 2021.

The conclusion: his tweets did have a quantifiable impact on WTI crude oil futures prices and significantly amplified speculative behavior in the market.

In other words, academia used data to confirm something all traders already knew: this man’s mouth could move global oil prices. And the 2020 story proved he not only could, he was willing, and his motive was not national interest, but his own network of interests.

From his first term to now, Trump’s oil trading tools have been upgraded. Twitter became Truth Social, cursing OPEC became pausing bombing Iran…

But the logic has never changed: using the president’s unique information advantage and policy power to create price volatility in the world’s largest commodity market.

From Mouth to Hands

Over the past decade, Trump has earned “influence” money in the oil market.

With a word, others profit, others lose, and he himself harvests political capital. But in 2026, the nature of this business began to change.

In early March this year, *The Wall Street Journal* and Bloomberg reported the same news: Trump’s two sons, Donald Jr. and Eric Trump, are investing in a military drone company called Powerus.

Donald Jr. is also a shareholder and advisory board member of the drone component company Unusual Machines, holding approximately 330,000 shares worth about $4 million.

He joined this company in November 2024, just weeks after his father won the election. Prior to this, he had no experience in the drone or defense industry.

Unusual Machines subsequently secured a contract with the US Army to produce 3,500 drone motors, with the military indicating an additional 20,000 components would be ordered in 2026.

Donald Jr. is also a partner at the venture capital firm 1789 Capital. According to *Financial Times* statistics, in 2025 alone, at least four portfolio companies of this VC firm received defense contracts from the Trump administration, totaling over $735 million.

Forbes estimated Donald Jr.’s personal net worth was around $50 million before his inauguration in January 2025 and had sextupled by year-end.

Then, his father launched the war against Iran on February 28, 2026.

Drones are the signature weapon of this war. According to *The New York Times*, both the US and Iran are using drones on a massive scale, with the cost per unit being a fraction of traditional missiles. The Pentagon is advancing an $11 billion procurement plan, aiming to deploy over 200,000 US-made attack drones by 2027.

A few days after the war began, his son Eric Trump posted on X: “Drones are the future.”

The conflict of interest is evident. A president’s son enters the defense industry after his father takes office, the companies he invests in receive contracts from his father’s administration, and his father is fighting a war that heavily consumes the products of these companies.

It’s not just oil; the Trump family’s business has expanded to war itself. Oil is the money he makes with his mouth; drones are the money his sons make with their hands.

Today is the first day of the pause in strikes. In five days, either negotiations yield results, the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and oil prices continue to fall; or nothing is achieved, Iran continues to blockade the strait, and everything reverts to the original state.

The world’s largest oil trader has issued the market a five-day option. Whether the strike price is war or peace, no one knows.

But one thing is certain: if oil prices rise, his son’s drone company gets more orders; if oil prices fall, he wins again on Truth Social.

Regardless of the outcome, he won’t lose money.

This article is sourced from the internet: Trump, the world’s largest oil trader

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