富达警告称抛售压力加大，将比特币前景展望更新为“中性”

美国领先的现货比特币 ETF 发行商富达数字资产 (Fidelity Digital Assets) 已将其对比特币的中期展望从正面修改为中性。

This shift, detailed in their Q1 2024 Signals Report released on April 22, stems from several concerning trends in Bitcoin’s market performance.

富达为何改变其比特币中期立场？

The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) has seen impressive growth, amassing over $8 billion in inflows. It stands as the second-fastest growing Bitcoin ETF since its launch. Despite this success, recent analyses point to a significant shift in Bitcoin’s valuation outlook.

The Bitcoin Yardstick, or Hashrate Yardick, serves as a key metric, similar to the Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio used in traditional stock markets. This ratio compares Bitcoin’s total market cap to its hash rate, which measures the computational energy securing the network.

“The idea is that the lower the ratio, the “cheaper” Bitcoin looks, just as a lower PE ratio can be interpreted as a “cheap” or undervalued stock,” Fidelity explained.

According to the report, there was not a single day in Q1 when Bitcoin was deemed “cheap.” The cryptocurrency fluctuated between zero and two standard deviations from the mean for half of the quarter. Importantly, values above two deviations typically signal an overvaluation relative to the network’s energy output.

Read more: Bitcoin Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

长期持有者的抛售压力增加以及高比例的盈利地址进一步支持了中性观点，这可能会鼓励抛售。

“We believe on-chain indicators are now clearly above the lows or extreme bottoms previously observed. However, we are nowhere near the historical extreme highs,” Chris Kuiper, Fidelity Digital Assets’ Director of Research said.

Nonetheless, Fidelity’s outlook is not uniformly cautious. The firm maintains a positive view in the short term, after the profit-taking activities at the end of the first quarter.

此外，链上数据表明小投资者正在持续增持。自今年年初以来，持有至少 $1,000 比特币的地址数量增加了 20%，创下历史新高。

“This shows a continued growth of small addresses accumulating and saving Bitcoin, even with rising prices. This may also be representative of a growing distribution of Bitcoin and its adoption among the “average” person,” Fidelity notes.

阅读更多：如何购买比特币 (BTC) 以及您需要了解的一切

此外，随着越来越多的投资者选择自我托管，交易所余额有所下降，这可能会减轻抛售压力。

比特币在 3 月 14 日创下 $73,777 的历史高点后经历了大幅回调，在一周内跌至 $60,775。此后，比特币一直在 $60,000 和 $71,800 之间波动。截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格约为 $66,000。