Shayne Coplan 的旅程：从对加密货币充满好奇的青少年到预测市场的先驱

每四年举行一次的美国总统大选今年吸引了全球数十亿观众。最近，特朗普和哈里斯辩论的消息充斥社交媒体。美国总统大选对全球事务有长期影响，而在短期内，它影响全球股市和经济。 加密 industry. Surrounding the election, events such as Trump’s attack, the GOP and Democrats wooing crypto voters, and Zuckerberg revealing that he was once asked by the Biden administration to censor information, appear unprecedented.

与美国大选有关的一个被反复提及的网站是预测市场Polymarket。

• Polymarket 已经吸引了近 $1 亿美元的对美国总统大选结果的投注，占据了美国大选博彩市场的 85%。
• 为什么称之为预测市场，而不是赌场或博彩平台？“预测市场”预测未来事件发生的可能性（例如谁将成为美国总统），被认为是一种社会认知工具，可以产生有价值的预测和见解。“赌场”提供的娱乐是随机结果，通常不会产生额外的信息价值。最直接的区别是，在“预测市场”中，拥有知识和洞察力的参与者可以长期获利，而在赌场中，大多数参与者会随着时间的推移而亏损。
• Unlike previous prediction markets that were usually confined to small circles, Polymarket’s U.S. presidential election data has been recognized and used by mainstream media, including The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg Terminal. It has even partnered with popular AI app Perplexity.
• Polymarket 是一个基于 Polygon 区块链的去中心化预测市场，用户可以使用 USDC 下注。它与 Moonpay 的合作允许法定存款，创造了用户友好的体验，使 Polymarket 成为最主流的 Web3 应用程序之一。

Numerous analytical articles about prediction markets and Polymarket are available, so I will not elaborate here. Instead, what interests me more is Polymarket’s founder, Shayne Coplan.

Shayne Coplan 今年 26 岁，但在加密领域拥有 12 年的经验：

• 他第一次接触加密货币是在 14 岁时，与朋友一起挖掘莱特币。
• 16岁时，他参加了以太坊预售，是当时最年轻的参与者之一。
• 他18岁进入纽约大学就读，但第二学期后退学。三年后，他创立了Polymarket，如今已成为美国最大的预测市场，甚至影响了美国大选。

As a content creator, crypto enthusiast, and father, I can’t help but wonder:

• Shayne Coplan 在什么样的环境中长大？
• What influences shaped Shayne Coplan’s development, allowing him to discover crypto at 14, participate in Ethereum’s presale at 16, and launch Polymarket at 22?
• 我们可以从他的经历中学到什么来帮助培养下一代企业家？

I researched all available interviews with Shayne Coplan to answer these questions, and here’s the resulting article. Enjoy!

在纽约富裕社区长大并通过音乐接触加密货币

谢恩·科普兰 (Shayne Coplan) 在纽约市上西区长大，这是曼哈顿著名的住宅区。他的母亲是纽约大学的电影教授，这说明他出身优越。该地区文化气息浓厚，靠近林肯中心、百老汇和现代艺术博物馆。

In 2013, at 14, Coplan discovered cryptocurrency while downloading music unavailable on iTunes in a file-sharing community. At that time, the most popular P2P file-sharing protocol was BitTorrent, one of the earliest peer-to-peer protocols embodying decentralization. The title of Bitcoin’s whitepaper, “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System,” reflects similar principles.

P2P 文件共享和加密货币社区密切相关，因为两者都秉承去中心化的理念，并且在政府审查的情况下使用匿名加密货币进行交易。

16 岁时对资产的兴趣和参与以太坊众筹

除了挖矿之外，Coplan 还对“彩色币”的概念很感兴趣，它提供了一种廉价而简单的方法来创建可证明稀缺的资产，例如股票和债券。这种兴趣自然而然地将他引向了以太坊，它允许构建各种金融应用程序。

In 2014, when Ethereum launched its fundraiser, Coplan had just turned 16 and participated in the presale at $0.30 per ETH. He also entered Manhattan’s renowned public high school, The Beacon School, and interned at genius.com in his sophomore year and chronicled.com the following summer.

从纽约大学退学，过着与世隔绝的生活，读书和探索

After a promising start, Coplan’s life took a turn during his second semester at NYU, where he decided to drop out in 2017. Unlike other notable dropouts with clear entrepreneurial goals, Coplan described this period as “living a life isolated from the world, engrossed in reading and exploring new things.”

During this time, two influential works inspired him: Friedrich Hayek’s “The Use of Knowledge in Society” and Robin Hanson’s concept of “Futarchy.”

发展他的预测 市场, Polymarket, 在新冠肺炎疫情期间

出于对市场机制的兴趣，Coplan 最初推出了 union.market，一个多链股权委托平台 marketplace然而，新冠疫情打乱了一切，被困家中的科普兰对主流媒体产生了怀疑，这促使他在 2020 年开发了自己的预测市场 Polymarket。

Polymarket 筹集了 $4 百万美元的种子资金，由 Polychain Capital 领投，并吸引了 Naval Ravikant 和 Balaji Srinivasan 等加密领域的重要人物。

培养下一代企业家的经验教训

Reflecting on Coplan’s journey, four qualities stand out:

• Early Awareness of the World: Coplan’s interest in crypto and colored coins at 14 was rooted in his understanding of scarcity and assets.
• 好奇心：强烈的好奇心促使他探索 P2P 社区，在那里他发现了加密货币。
• 自学能力：科普兰独立学会了编码、设计产品和研究经济理论。
• Independent Thinking: Instead of following trends, Coplan pursued his interests, developing Polymarket when prediction markets weren’t mainstream.

Coplan’s journey as a “global super-individual” provides inspiration and lessons for future generations.