富達警告拋售壓力上升，將比特幣前景更新為“中性”

美國領先的現貨比特幣 ETF 發行商富達數位資產 (Fidelity Digital Assets) 已將比特幣中期前景從積極調整為中性。

This shift, detailed in their Q1 2024 Signals Report released on April 22, stems from several concerning trends in Bitcoin’s market performance.

富達為何改變比特幣中期立場？

The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) has seen impressive growth, amassing over $8 billion in inflows. It stands as the second-fastest growing Bitcoin ETF since its launch. Despite this success, recent analyses point to a significant shift in Bitcoin’s valuation outlook.

The Bitcoin Yardstick, or Hashrate Yardick, serves as a key metric, similar to the Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio used in traditional stock markets. This ratio compares Bitcoin’s total market cap to its hash rate, which measures the computational energy securing the network.

“The idea is that the lower the ratio, the “cheaper” Bitcoin looks, just as a lower PE ratio can be interpreted as a “cheap” or undervalued stock,” Fidelity explained.

According to the report, there was not a single day in Q1 when Bitcoin was deemed “cheap.” The cryptocurrency fluctuated between zero and two standard deviations from the mean for half of the quarter. Importantly, values above two deviations typically signal an overvaluation relative to the network’s energy output.

閱讀更多：比特幣價格預測 2024/2025/2030

長期持有者拋售壓力的增加和盈利地址的高比例進一步支撐了中性前景，這可能會鼓勵拋售。

“We believe on-chain indicators are now clearly above the lows or extreme bottoms previously observed. However, we are nowhere near the historical extreme highs,” Chris Kuiper, Fidelity Digital Assets’ Director of Research said.

Nonetheless, Fidelity’s outlook is not uniformly cautious. The firm maintains a positive view in the short term, after the profit-taking activities at the end of the first quarter.

此外，鏈上數據顯示小型投資者正在持續累積。自年初以來，持有至少 $1,000 比特幣的地址數量增加了 20%，創歷史新高。

“This shows a continued growth of small addresses accumulating and saving Bitcoin, even with rising prices. This may also be representative of a growing distribution of Bitcoin and its adoption among the “average” person,” Fidelity notes.

閱讀更多：如何購買比特幣 (BTC) 以及您需要了解的一切

此外，隨著越來越多的投資者選擇自我託管，外匯餘額也有所下降，這可能會減輕拋售壓力。

比特幣在3月14日觸及歷史高點$73,777後，經歷了大幅回調，一週內跌至$60,775。此後一直在$60,000和$71,800之間振盪。截至撰寫本文時，其交易價格約為 $66,000。