PlanB：比特幣不會再跌破 $60,000

2024 年 3 月 14 日，比特幣飆升至歷史新高 $73,760，再次成為人們關注的焦點。

This figure marks a significant milestone in BTC’s journey, especially as it approaches the much-anticipated halving. PlanB, a prominent figure within the crypto community, shared insights into this phenomenon, providing a prediction about Bitcoin’s future valuation.

$200,000 是比特幣的保守目標

At the heart of PlanB’s Bitcoin price prediction is the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. It anticipates significant price movements in conjunction with halving events by comparing the current supply of Bitcoin against the flow of new BTC entering the market. These are periods when the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is halved, thus reducing the supply of new coins.

According to PlanB, BTC’s alignment with the S2F model’s projections, especially before a Bitcoin halving, is a critical indicator of its future performance. The transition from “blue to red” dots in PlanB’s model marks the shift into new phases of the market cycle, with red indicating a bull market.

根據歷史模式、訊號成長和持續的看漲勢頭，預計這種轉變將持續下去。

PlanB 表示，雖然市場將面臨波動，可能下跌 20-30%，但整體軌跡仍保持向上。

“We will have a steep increase in price from here, [potentially] $100,000 this year. [But] note that this model jumps in April to roughly $500,000, which is the average price level in this halving period. It [may] take a couple of months or almost a year to reach that level, so the next top will not be this year, but in next year, 2025,” PlanB explained.

Regarding the next market top, some anticipate Bitcoin reaching $200,000. However, according to PlanB, such a figure might actually fall short of expectations. From an S2F perspective, he is looking at a target significantly above the average, possibly exceeding $500,000, to align with the model’s projections.

了解更多：2024 / 2025 / 2030 年比特幣價格預測

支持這種樂觀前景的關鍵因素是鏈上指標的表現，例如已實現價格和兩年已實現價格，在牛市期間表現出顯著增長。特別是五個月的實現價格在 $60,000 處建立了新的強勁支撐位。

“The five-month realized price, that’s the short-term holder price, is at $60,000 right now. That would be the aggressive floor because if we look at previous bull markets then you see Bitcoin price doesn’t go below [the five-month realized price]. So that’s my personal aggressive floor that I think we will not go below again,” PlanB added.

此外，相對強弱指標（RSI）呈現有趣的敘述。目前，RSI 處於減半前的最高水平，表明比特幣正以前所未有的強勢進入這一階段。這種與先前週期中收益遞減模式的背離可能表示經濟正在轉向指數成長。

總而言之，比特幣正處於關鍵時刻，一系列指標顯示其成長遠未結束。