Trump tweet sends BTC back above $80,000 for the first time in three months

作者：魔像（@web3_傀儡)

Crazy Monday! After three months, Bitcoin has once again broken through the $80,000 mark.

The altcoin market is also showing signs of recovery. According to Quantify Crypto data, over the past 24 hours, more than 80% of the top 200 altcoins by market cap have posted gains of varying degrees. Among them, DOGE rose over 5.43%, ZEC surged over 10.78%, and WLFI gained over 7.06%.

In derivatives, Coinglass data shows that total liquidations across all exchanges reached $286 million in the past 12 hours, predominantly short positions, which accounted for $251 million. The liquidation spike occurred as Bitcoin broke through $80,000. Specifically, BTC liquidations totaled $152 million, while ETH saw $75.5 million in liquidations.

This rally was not exclusive to the 加密貨幣 market. Asian stock markets opened sharply higher on Monday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising 1.9%, erasing losses since the Iran war. Tech stocks rebounded: SK Hynix’s stock price surged nearly 10%, TSMC jumped over 6%, and Hong Kong-listed tech and internet stocks also rallied collectively. Xiaomi Group rose over 10%, and Alibaba (09988.HK) gained more than 6%.

Meanwhile, according to Gate data, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices both saw slight declines, with WTI crude maintaining around $101 per barrel.

When both the crypto and stock markets rise on a Monday, accompanied by slight fluctuations in oil prices, seasoned investors could likely guess the reason: the market’s maestro, Donald Trump, had made a move again.

市場 Anticipates Trump’s ‘Project Freedom’ May Open the Strait of Hormuz

On the evening of May 3rd Eastern Time, Trump posted a message stating that he would begin helping ships leave the Strait of Hormuz on Monday (Middle East time). He claimed that many countries unrelated to the current Middle East dispute are appealing to the US for help to release vessels stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. For humanitarian relief, the US will safely 指導 their ships out of the restricted waters, naming the operation ‘Project Freedom’.

Following Trump’s statement, the U.S. Central Command announced it would provide military support for the operation to guide stranded vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz, including missile destroyers, over 100 land-based and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 military personnel. It stated this was in response to Iranian military attacks on merchant ships transiting the strait.

This unilateral action by Trump naturally angered Iran. As early as May 2nd, Ali Nikzad, Vice Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Consultative Assembly, emphasized while speaking on the coast of the Strait of Hormuz that Iran would absolutely not take a single step back from the Strait. He stated that the parliament had approved a ‘Strait of Hormuz Management Law,’ which includes permanently banning Israeli vessels from passing through this critical waterway, requiring vessels from ‘hostile nations’ to pay ‘war reparations’ for transit permits, and mandating that other ships obtain Iranian authorization for passage.

Consequently, Iran views Trump’s ‘Project Freedom’ as an infringement by the US on Iran’s authority over the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after Trump announced ‘Project Freedom,’ Ebrahim Azizi, Chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that any US intervention in the new maritime order of the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire agreement.

On April 8th, the US and Iran signed a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement. As the temporary ceasefire was about to expire on April 21st, Trump announced an in德菲nite extension of the ceasefire to continue negotiations with Iran. Although a ceasefire is in place between the US and Iran, control of the Strait of Hormuz has remained in Iran’s hands during this period, and it has never fully opened the strait for passage.

In terms of consequences, if Trump forcibly implements ‘Project Freedom,’ the current situation between the US and Iran could escalate from negotiations back to armed conflict. This would not only prevent normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz but, in the long run, the impact of war on global financial markets would be far greater than today’s rally.

當然， whether ‘The King of Bluster’ Trump will actually execute the ‘Project Freedom’ plan remains uncertain. It is currently Monday morning (May 4th) Middle East time, but there has been no news in the market of US forces successfully escorting merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Could this be another classic T.A.C.O. (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade? (Related reading: Win or Lose the War? Trump: I Profited)

Iran seems accustomed to this Trump-style ‘cry wolf’ narrative. Iranian scholar Seyed Mohammad Marandi said back in late March when Trump posted about manipulating oil prices: “Every week when markets open, Trump makes such statements to drive down oil prices.” Therefore, Ebrahim Azizi also dismissively remarked when Trump announced ‘Project Freedom,’ saying no one believes in this “buck-passing” trick.

Although we cannot yet know whether ‘Project Freedom’ will be actually implemented, Trump’s urgency to restore normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz is evident. This is not only tied to US national interests but also crucial for whether Trump can secure his position as president.

On May 3rd, according to the latest ABC/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, Trump’s disapproval rating reached 62%, a record high for his two terms. With midterm elections approaching, such approval ratings are quite unfavorable for Trump, making him urgently in need of achievements that can turn the tide. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the ideal goal (even though the current problems are largely of his own making).

On one hand, externally, opening the Strait of Hormuz would be a re-demonstration of American global deterrence. Trump can package it as a complete victory over Iran, showcasing American strength. On the other hand, internally, restoring passage through the Strait can lower global oil prices, quelling dissatisfaction among the US public and related stakeholders. Simultaneously, lower price levels could increase the chances of newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh convincing other officials to agree to an interest rate cut at the June FOMC meeting, injecting vitality into the market. (Related reading: Powell Bows Out but Doesn’t Leave the Stage; Trump’s Rate Cut Plans May Falter)

On the morning of May 4th, Trump also posted a photo on Truth Social showing him holding multiple cards, captioned “I have all the cards.” Superficially, this is a display of confidence, but often, those who lack a winning hand are more prone to bluffing.

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