The Flip Side of the Stock Market Rally: Energy Restructuring, Bitcoin Squeeze, and Market Mismatch

Original Author: Talha Chaudhry, 1KONTO

Original Compilation: Peggy, BlockBeats

Editor’s Note: Beneath a series of seemingly “positive” signals, the market is presenting a somewhat discordant structure: rising stock markets, falling oil prices, cooling inflation expectations, with investors beginning to re-bet on the narratives of “contained conflict” and “policy pivot.” However, taking a longer-term perspective reveals that deeper underlying tensions have not disappeared.

On one hand, capital is actively ignoring short-term uncertainties, focusing attention on potential policy easing and the technology cycle, particularly AI. On the other hand, structural shocks from energy supply, global supply chains, and geopolitical competition are quietly altering the long-term trajectory of demand and prices.

This split is also evident across different markets: stocks are trading on “anticipated solutions,” while commodities and macro variables still reflect “unresolved problems.”

As the divergence between narrative and reality continues to widen, the real risk often lies not in the variables already being discussed, but in those selectively ignored by the market.

The following is the original text:

سوق Brief

Digital Asset Market

Strategy purchased an additional 13,927 BTC for approximately $1 billion between April 6th and 12th, at an average price of $71,902 per بيتكوين, bringing its total holdings to 780,897 BTC. The cumulative cost for these bitcoins is $59.02 billion, with an average holding cost of $75,577. It remains 19,103 BTC short of its 800,000 BTC target.

The funds for this purchase came from the company’s sale of 10 million shares of its Stretch Perpetual Preferred Stock (STRC) through an “At-The-Market” (ATM) offering. During this period, no sales of STRF, STRK, STRD, or MSTR occurred. Notably, following rule adjustments in March, the issuance scale of STRC reached one of its historically high levels.

This operation took place as the company disclosed $14.46 billion in unrealized losses on digital assets for Q1 2026. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $786 million for the week. The price of Bitcoin briefly broke above $70,000 before retreating to around $71,000 over the weekend amid geopolitical tensions triggered by failed negotiations and the announcement of a maritime blockade on April 13th.

Macroeconomics

A significant surge in crude oil tanker traffic heading towards the U.S. Gulf Coast indicates a rapid restructuring of global oil trade in response to Middle East disruptions. Shipping and data analytics firms point out that the number of vessels currently arriving in the U.S. to load crude oil for transshipment to supply-constrained markets in Europe and Asia is far above normal levels.

With restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz and hundreds of energy-related vessels queuing for loading, buyers are shifting their supply chains to the United States, even if it means longer routes around Africa. This change further reinforces the U.S. role as the “marginal supplier” and “emergency stabilizer” in the global energy system.

Some commentary views this trend as a shift in the geopolitical landscape—weakening Iran’s leverage. Simultaneously, it’s a story of logistics and capacity, including the expansion of Gulf port access. However, there are also macro-level trade-offs: while increased U.S. exports help mitigate global oil price spikes and improve the external balance, domestic consumers will still bear the pressure of rising gasoline prices. Even as the U.S. has become a net oil exporter and is more resilient to oil price shocks than in the past, this still poses potential political and economic growth risks.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks rose for a second consecutive session as investors chose to “ignore the risk” amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, instead betting on optimistic expectations of a potential U.S.-Iran agreement. The S&P 500 gained 1.18%, sitting just about 1% below its 52-week high. The Dow Jones rose 0.66%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.96%, led by tech stocks, with Oracle, NVIDIA, and Palantir Technologies performing notably well.

Market sentiment was also buoyed by March’s Producer Price Index (PPI) coming in lower than expected. Concurrently, oil prices retreated sharply, with WTI down about 7% and Brent crude down about 4%.

Earnings reports showed mixed results: Wells Fargo’s stock declined due to missing expectations, while JPMorgan Chase, despite beating profit estimates, edged lower after cutting its net interest income guidance.

Additionally, market rumors surfaced about a potential merger between United Airlines and American Airlines, though it is expected to face tough antitrust scrutiny. Nonetheless, shares of both companies rose.

NVIDIA continued its strong rally, primarily driven by sustained robust demand for AI chips, the launch of its open-source “Ising” quantum model, and continued heavy capital expenditure by major tech firms. The company also denied acquisition rumors involving PC manufacturers.

Federal Reserve & U.S. Treasury

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated he is confident core inflation will continue to decline this year, providing room for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. However, he also understands it would be reasonable if policymakers choose to wait for clearer signals regarding the economic impact of the Iran war before acting.

Data shows headline inflation rose 0.9% month-over-month in March, with producer prices up 0.5%, primarily driven by energy. Core inflation was notably more subdued at 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. He pointed out that the decline in U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices following the ceasefire suggests inflation expectations are cooling.

The overall Fed inclination is currently to hold rates steady, while political uncertainty is also rising: Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, and the confirmation of Kevin Warsh could be delayed due to an investigation involving Senator Thom Tillis regarding cost overruns on a Fed building.

Geopolitics

The U.S. and Iran are attempting to arrange a second round of peace talks within days, potentially returning to Pakistan, with the goal of making progress before the current ceasefire agreement expires next week. Iran is also considering a temporary suspension of transit through the Strait of Hormuz to ease tensions.

Although the Islamabad talks yielded no substantive results, diplomacy is advancing. However, the U.S. has begun implementing a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, restricting Iranian oil exports, and warning it will intercept or divert vessels associated with Iranian ports while allowing neutral vessels to pass. Market optimism about the prospects of a deal has led to falling oil prices and rising stock markets.

The conflict has damaged regional energy infrastructure, disrupted global supply chains, and pushed up fuel costs. The International Energy Agency warns that global oil demand could see its first annual decline since 2020. Meanwhile, Switzerland has offered diplomatic support, Israel continues operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and significant differences remain between the U.S. and Iran on the nuclear issue—the U.S. proposes a long-term suspension, while Iran favors a shorter timeframe.

Our View

Negative Funding Rates, Not $76K, Might Be the True Bitcoin Bottom Signal

Bitcoin’s struggle around $76,000 might be less significant than the market thinks. More attention should be paid to the off-chain structure: the derivatives market has seen negative funding rates for 46 consecutive days, meaning traders are consistently “paying to be short.” This is extremely rare in a market that typically has a long-biased structure.

The last time sentiment was this one-sided was after the FTX collapse, where extreme pessimism coincided with the cycle bottom. Of course, this doesn’t mean history will simply repeat itself; macro environment, regulation, and liquidity variables still influence the market. But it is certain that short positions have become noticeably crowded.

The real risk might not be further downside, but rather—if even a mild positive catalyst emerges, shorts being forced to cover in a relatively thin liquidity environment could trigger a violent upward repricing.

Gulf Shock May Fade, But Some Oil Demand Could Be Permanently Lost

Markets often view demand destruction as a temporary phenomenon, but historical experience shows that severe supply shocks often leave lasting impacts.

When prices spike and supply shortages occur, airlines retire inefficient aircraft, industrial users adjust production processes, households and businesses change consumption habits, and governments accelerate energy diversification. These “forced savings” often evolve into “structural demand reduction.”

This presents a key second-order risk: when Gulf supply recovers, the pace of supply restoration may outpace demand recovery. At that point, relief in the physical market could translate into a repricing in financial markets—narrowing spreads, rising inventories, declining refining margins. Producers will also realize that a portion of the demand formed during the crisis has permanently disappeared.

Critical Supply Chain Reshoring Tests Execution, Not Just Slogans

Supply chain reshoring efforts around electrification, defense, and advanced manufacturing are accelerating, but “urgency” alone doesn’t solve the problem.

Core segments like rare earth processing, critical metals, and magnets remain highly concentrated in China, exposing the vulnerability of Western supply chains at a time when strategic dependence is deemed unacceptable. Initiatives like USA Rare Earth establishing processing capabilities in France and advancing capacity in Oklahoma show the direction is clear. Government involvement also signifies that “reshoring” is shifting from a cost issue to one of security and resilience.

However, the real challenge lies in execution: permitting efficiency, long-term financing, skilled labor, and stable downstream demand are all indispensable. If these foundational conditions cannot advance in sync, supply chain reshoring may remain a high-cost strategic vision rather than a truly actionable industrial capability.

Happy Trading

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