PlanB：比特币不会再次跌破 $60,000

2024 年 3 月 14 日，比特币飙升至 $73,760 的历史新高，再次成为众人瞩目的焦点。

This figure marks a significant milestone in BTC’s journey, especially as it approaches the much-anticipated halving. PlanB, a prominent figure within the crypto community, shared insights into this phenomenon, providing a prediction about Bitcoin’s future valuation.

$200,000 是比特币的保守目标

At the heart of PlanB’s Bitcoin price prediction is the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. It anticipates significant price movements in conjunction with halving events by comparing the current supply of Bitcoin against the flow of new BTC entering the market. These are periods when the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is halved, thus reducing the supply of new coins.

According to PlanB, BTC’s alignment with the S2F model’s projections, especially before a Bitcoin halving, is a critical indicator of its future performance. The transition from “blue to red” dots in PlanB’s model marks the shift into new phases of the market cycle, with red indicating a bull market.

根据历史模式、信号增长和持续的看涨势头，预计这种转变将会持续下去。

PlanB 表示，虽然市场将面临波动，可能出现 20-30% 的跌幅，但总体趋势仍然向上。

“We will have a steep increase in price from here, [potentially] $100,000 this year. [But] note that this model jumps in April to roughly $500,000, which is the average price level in this halving period. It [may] take a couple of months or almost a year to reach that level, so the next top will not be this year, but in next year, 2025,” PlanB explained.

Regarding the next market top, some anticipate Bitcoin reaching $200,000. However, according to PlanB, such a figure might actually fall short of expectations. From an S2F perspective, he is looking at a target significantly above the average, possibly exceeding $500,000, to align with the model’s projections.

Read more: Bitcoin Price Prediction 2024 / 2025 / 2030

支持这一乐观前景的一个关键因素是链上指标的表现，例如实现价格和两年实现价格，在牛市期间表现出显著的增长。尤其是五个月实现价格在 $60,000 建立了新的强劲支撑位。

“The five-month realized price, that’s the short-term holder price, is at $60,000 right now. That would be the aggressive floor because if we look at previous bull markets then you see Bitcoin price doesn’t go below [the five-month realized price]. So that’s my personal aggressive floor that I think we will not go below again,” PlanB added.

此外，相对强度指标 (RSI) 呈现出有趣的叙述。目前，RSI 处于减半前的最高水平，表明比特币正以前所未有的强度进入这一阶段。这种与前几个周期收益递减模式的背离可能预示着向指数增长的转变。

总而言之，比特币正处于关键时刻，多种指标表明其增长远未结束。