Where is Bitcoin’s bottom? From $59,000 to $40,000, institutions are divided

简要说明

Bitcoin entered a downward cycle after hitting an all-time high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025. On July 1, 2026, BTC briefly fell to around $57,800, a maximum drawdown of about 54% from its peak; as of July 14, the price had recovered to near $62,000.

As the market enters a phase of seeking a bottom, institutions such as Standard Chartered Bank, Galaxy Research, CryptoQuant, NYDIG, and 10x Research have successively provided their assessments. However, the nature of these predictions varies: some institutions provide a baseline bottom, others offer only key support levels or pessimistic scenarios, and some are technical targets after breaking specific price levels.

Aggregating currently public views, institutional forecasts are mainly concentrated in two ranges: $50,000–$60,000 and $40,000–$46,000; KOLs’ judgments are more dispersed, with the lowest extending below $30,000.

Standard Chartered Bank: $59,000 Could Be the Cycle Bottom

On June 12, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that Bitcoin may have formed a cycle bottom around $59,000, and believes the current “加密 winter” is over.

Kendrick attributed the previous market decline to outflows from spot ETFs, decreased purchasing power from digital asset treasury companies like Strategy, and the shift of investor funds towards 人工智能-related assets. Standard Chartered maintained its year-end 2026 target of $100,000 for Bitcoin at the time.

However, Bitcoin subsequently fell to about $57,800 on July 1, briefly breaking below the $59,000 bottom identified by Standard Chartered. While its prediction is close to the actual low, it is too early to confirm that the market has completed its final bottoming process.

10x Research: Further Downgrade from $55,000 to Around $50,000

On June 24, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, indicated that Bitcoin might form a low after dropping to around $55,000. He suggested that a stronger US dollar, tighter liquidity, and seasonal market factors could continue to pressure BTC.

On July 1, 10x Research further updated its Elliott Wave model. Previously, the firm expected Bitcoin to complete the A-wave decline around $63,000, then rally to the $80,000–$90,000 range, before declining via a C-wave towards $50,000. The latest model gives a potential price range of approximately $46,628–$50,732.

Therefore, 10x Research’s assessment has been progressively revised downwards from the initial $55,000 to around $50,000. However, the firm also believes that after Bitcoin falls below $55,000, its long-term allocation value begins to emerge.

CryptoQuant: $53,600 Could Constitute a Valuation Bottom

In a report published in June, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, pointed out that Bitcoin had entered an on-chain valuation range, but demand remains weak, and the market has not yet shown complete capitulation signals.

The report indicated that Bitcoin’s realized price was approximately $53,600 at the time. The realized price reflects the average cost of all BTC at their last on-chain transfer and has historically often been viewed as an important valuation floor during bear markets.

CryptoQuant, combined with indicators like the MVRV Z-Score, identified the $55,000–$60,000 range as a potential bottoming area requiring close observation. However, the firm emphasized that a confirmed cycle bottom requires simultaneous improvement in spot demand, ETF flows, and stablecoin liquidity.

Citibank: $53,000 in a Pessimistic Scenario

On July 1, Citibank lowered its 12-month price target for Bitcoin from $112,000 to $82,000, citing persistent spot ETF outflows, stalled progress on US 加密 legislation, and weakening investor demand.

In a pessimistic scenario involving an economic recession and continued ETF outflows, Citibank estimated Bitcoin’s valuation at approximately $53,000.

It is important to note that $53,000 is not Citibank’s explicit prediction for the cycle bottom, but rather a 12-month valuation under a pessimistic scenario assuming an economic recession and sustained capital outflows.

NYDIG: $53,700 is the Cost Basis, Extreme Drawdown Scenario at $37,900

In a report released on June 5, NYDIG stated that Bitcoin was not far from historical bear market bottom levels, but market evidence remains complex and insufficient to confirm a final bottom.

The report considers the 1x MVRV level of approximately $53,700 as an important cost basis. This level implies that Bitcoin’s market price is near the average on-chain cost of all network holders.

NYDIG also calculated that if Bitcoin experiences a drawdown of approximately 70% from its peak of $126,000, the price would fall to around $37,900. However, this figure represents a stress scenario based on historical bear market drawdowns, not NYDIG’s base case prediction.

Galaxy Research: Baseline Bottom at $40,000–$46,000

Galaxy Research provides one of the clearest and lower base case predictions among current institutions. Its June report suggested that Bitcoin could form a cycle bottom in the $40,000–$46,000 range between now and Q4 2026.

Galaxy established a Bitcoin bottom monitoring framework comprising 13 indicators, covering price drawdowns, holder losses, realized price, miner stress, long-term holder behavior, and market time cycles. As of the report’s publication, only four indicators had fully triggered, suggesting that while Bitcoin has entered the latter half of the bear market, the price decline and duration may not have fully completed the cleansing process.

Consequently, Galaxy lists $40,000–$46,000 as its baseline bottom range, while also cautioning that further deterioration in the macroeconomic environment or digital asset treasury companies could lead to deeper tail risks.

Bitfinex: $53,400 is Structural Support, Weak Demand Could Lead to a Dip to $40,000

In its June 29 report, Bitfinex Alpha identified the realized price of approximately $53,400 as an important structural support level for Bitcoin.

The report suggests that if ETF outflows slow and spot buying resumes, Bitcoin could complete its bottoming in this area; however, if demand remains persistently weak, the market could further decline towards the $40,000 level in Q4.

On July 1, Bitcoin quickly rebounded after falling to around $57,800. In subsequent reports, Bitfinex noted that this move could be a “false breakdown,” but it was still insufficient to confirm that the final bottom had been formed.

22V Research: After Breaking Below $60,000, Technical Target Points to $40,000

John Roque, Technical Strategist at 22V Research, stated that Bitcoin is testing the $60,000 level as its first downside target. If the price effectively breaks below this level, it could further decline to $40,000.

Therefore, $40,000 is a conditional target following a break of a key technical level, rather than 22V Research’s unconditional prediction for this cycle’s bottom.

Other Institutions: $31,000–$40,000 Primarily Represents Deep Bear 市场 Scenarios

John Blank, Chief Equity Strategist at Zacks Investment Research, stated in February that if the current crypto winter persists for 12–18 months, Bitcoin could drop to around $40,000 over the next 6–8 months. His assessment is primarily based on technical formations, declining liquidity, and historical bear market cycles.

Stifel previously gave a potential target of approximately $38,000; Ned Davis Research suggested Bitcoin could fall to around $31,000 if the market enters a full-blown “crypto winter.” These figures largely represent long-term bear market or deep stress scenarios, rather than the current consensus base case of these institutions.

Strategy and Metaplanet: No Clear Bottom Prediction, but Long-Term Treasury Strategy Continues

Strategy and Metaplanet have not provided specific bottom price predictions for Bitcoin, but their treasury activities are important variables for institutional assessments of market demand.

Michael Saylor stated that the recent ~$4 billion outflows from Bitcoin ETFs reflect capital rotation towards 人工智能, rather than damage to Bitcoin itself; in his view, volatility still creates opportunities.

However, Strategy has started managing its balance sheet more flexibly. The company sold 3,588 BTC between June 29 and July 5, cashing out approximately $216 million, primarily to pay preferred stock dividends. In the most recent week, the company did not buy or sell BTC but raised about $467 million by selling common stock, increasing its dollar reserves to approximately $3 billion. As of the disclosure, Strategy holds 843,775 BTC.

Metaplanet continues to maintain its long-term direction of expanding its BTC reserves, targeting a holding of 100,000 BTC by the end of 2026 and 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027. The positions of these two companies are better categorized as long-term treasury allocation rather than short-term bottom predictions.

KOL Predictions: From $57,000 to Below $30,000

Beyond institutions, on-chain analysts, traders, and industry figures have also provided diverse assessments of this cycle’s bottom.

Michael Terpin stated in April that Bitcoin has not yet reached its final bottom, predicting the price could fall to around $57,000 around October. The low of $57,800 on July 1 was close to his prediction, but whether it is the final bottom remains to be confirmed.

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen stated in June that $59,000 is the first support level to watch; if broken, the next important zone is $48,000–$52,000. Biteye summarized her bottom judgment as approximately $50,000.

On-chain analyst Willy Woo, using traditional on-chain models like CVDD in March, placed the potential bottom range at $46,000–$54,000. The CVDD floor was approximately $45,500 at the time, rising gradually. He also cautioned that these models have only experienced four complete bear markets, and the actual price could fall deeper if the macro environment deteriorates significantly.

Jiang Zhuor, founder of Lvbit Mining Pool, predicts Bitcoin could fall to $42,000–$44,000 in Q4 2026. His assessment references Strategy’s market cap to Bitcoin net asset value ratio, combined with the four-year cycle and the characteristic of declining Bitcoin volatility cycle by cycle.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes Bitcoin could drop to around $40,000 over the next six months. He has hedged downside risk using options structures but states he remains structurally long Bitcoin. Therefore, $40,000 represents his medium-term risk assessment, not a long-term bearish target.

KOL WolfyXBT stated they are still waiting for Bitcoin at $35,000, representing the more pessimistic view among some traders regarding this cycle’s drawdown.

According to Biteye, crypto investor Tony Ling expects Bitcoin could enter the $30,000–$40,000 zone in Q4 2026, believing the market could subsequently be affected by a prolonged Nasdaq bear market and an AI bubble burst. As his original full post has not been found, this view should be qualified with the source “as compiled by Biteye.”

Technical analyst Tony Severino maintains a long-term target of approximately $34,500, corresponding to a ~72% drawdown from Bitcoin’s all-time high. He expects the cycle low to occur around October.

Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers the most pessimistic assessment. He believes that if Bitcoin cannot reclaim the $75,000 level, prices could still drop to $10,000 in an extreme scenario. It must be emphasized that this represents McGlone’s personal analysis, not an official Bloomberg institutional forecast, and is not part of the current mainstream market expectations.

Consensus on a $44,000–$46,000 Bottom Has Not Yet Formed

Synthesizing all views, it is currently not possible to conclude that “institutions generally believe this cycle’s bottom is in the $44,000–$46,000 range.”

Standard Chartered Bank believes $59,000 may already constitute the cycle bottom; CryptoQuant, NYDIG, Citibank, and 10x Research’s key zones are mainly in the $50,000–$55,000 range; Galaxy Research, Bitfinex, and Arthur Hayes place the deeper risk zone at $40,000–$46,000. Predictions below $30,000–$40,000 are largely based on assumptions of a deep bear market, macro recession, or further deterioration of technical structures.

The core disagreement among predictions stems not only from the different models used but also from differing assumptions about the future macro environment. Whether spot ETFs resume inflows, whether digital asset treasury companies like Strategy continue selling BTC, Fed policy and the US dollar trend, and whether investor funds continue rotating towards AI assets, all could influence the final bottom.

Therefore, the $40,000–$46,000 range can be considered a currently prominent second-tier support level and the baseline bottom range for some institutions, but it cannot be described as a unified consensus already formed by the market.

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