与Domer对话：如何成为Polymarket上第一交易员？

原作者：Thor Hartvigsen、Thlither、hyphin

原文翻译：LlamaC

（作品集：DAYBREAKER，关于 Tomo：eth 基金会插画师）

“Recommendation: Polymarket is a successful case in the crypto space, providing clear advantages over centralized platforms. Learn how Domer, as a top trader at Polymarket, has gained experience in adversarial gaming, stock trading, and event trading, as well as his Unique insights into trading psychology and market forecasting to achieve trading success.

介绍

Polymarket 已成为今年加密货币领域最突出的成功案例之一，吸引了数万名每日活跃用户，每月产生数亿美元的交易量。作为最大的区块链预测市场，它比中心化替代方案更受欢迎。它具有明显的优势，并证明了加密货币可以带来真正的创新。

Last week, the On Chain Times team had the pleasure of speaking with Domer, also known as “JustKen” on the Polymarket leaderboard. Domer is the top 1 trader on the Polymarket platform in terms of volume and profitability. He has participated in over 5,000 markets. Trading, with a total trading volume of nearly $300 million, has unique insights into the prediction market and election prediction field.

在采访中，Domer 谈到了他的专业背景、预测市场交易框架、交易心理等。

与 Domer 聊天

您是如何开始进行政治预测的？是什么让您决定成为一名全职政治交易员？

我偶然成为了一名在线扑克玩家。2000 年代中期，我开始玩在线扑克，那是在线扑克的黄金时代，年轻人赚钱相对容易（在美国政府关闭之前）。大学毕业后，我没干多久就决定全职玩扑克。我随意浏览了一个网站，发现除了体育，还有其他东西可以交易。这让我开始交易电影票房（同样，在美国政府关闭之前），然后很快通过一个名为 Intrade 的网站进入政治世界（在美国政府关闭 Intrade 之前）。我从小就对政治情有独钟，所以我很享受尝试预测 2008 年竞选活动的各种细节。我赢了很多（相对而言）大钱，然后我退出扑克，转而交易这些东西。预测市场基本上是慢动作的扑克，你可以通过更多的研究击败对手。这些都见诸新闻，或者至少是你关心的事情。

让我稍微扩展一下这个答案，从更大的角度来看，我有两个不同的背景，一个是扑克玩家，另一个是股票交易员。最终，我出于不同的原因从这两个领域转型。：扑克有很多变数，而股票交易的时间周期不明确，有时很长。

在扑克游戏中，你可以玩得完美，但仍然会输钱。实际上，你可以玩好几个小时，但仍然会输钱。金钱的波动可能让人感到压力，而且说实话很愚蠢。从理论上讲，扑克可以在极其无聊和极其危险之间交替进行。

然后谈到股票，你可能对一家公司完全正确，但可能需要几年时间才能看到这种判断得到证实。让我用一个简单的例子来说明：我第一次交易股票是在 2000 年代，当时我发现麦当劳拥有几乎所有餐厅所在的土地，而这些土地在房地产泡沫中迅速升值。他们有一个房地产帝国，这应该会给他们的股价增加更多的价值。这应该至少为股价带来几美分的额外价值。100% 点，甚至更多。但直到我买入几年后，华尔街才真正意识到这一点。所以，你可能对一家公司的一个方面判断正确，并因此脸色发青，但这并不意味着它会让你在股市上赚钱。短期内市场的变幻莫测可能是愚蠢和不合理的。

归根结底，我喜欢寻找优势，我喜欢交易，而预测市场是我发现的最好、最有趣的交易方式。至于美国政府，他们基本上是强迫我（暂时）离开这个国家，但看起来他们的监管政策可能即将结束，因为他们正在失去预测市场的统治。希望在空中飘荡。

您是 Polymarket 上有史以来最赚钱的交易员。您是否注意到有人不成比例地复制您的交易？逆转您的交易？寻求成为您的队友或交易对手？

对于跟单交易，答案是肯定的，但后来又是否定的。我下了很多单，也损失了很多单。我的风险承受能力很强，资金也充足。所以很多人会跟单我的交易。然后一旦我亏损了，我就放弃了。在我职业生涯的这个阶段，我想我亏损的单子可能比盈利的多一点，但我盈利的钱比亏损的多。这个谜题就留给你们自己去解吧。

关于队友——我得到了很多自私的建议。我有一群我信任并与之交谈的核心人。对大多数人来说，我可能看起来像是独自坐在那里交易，但实际上我几乎一直在与其他人讨论我的事件交易订单以获得反馈。我很聪明，但并非总是如此，我绝对不是最聪明的人，所以与聪明人交谈并接受现实检查很重要。交易作为一种职业是一种非常像浪人的存在。但你也需要与其他浪人交谈，否则你的职业生涯不会持续太久。哈哈。

在您关于 EIGEN 可转移性的帖子中，您提到您一直以 20 美分的价格购买，因为您认为成功的几率接近 50/50。您能更详细地解释一下您是如何得出这个结论的吗？这是一个纯粹的定性判断，还是您在心算中考虑了其他更具体的数据？

我认为事件交易是一个过程。通常它们从直觉开始。我经常做很多小的直觉交易。但是当你转向更大的交易时，你需要依靠的不仅仅是直觉，有时你没有太多时间去做。所以在那种情况下，我在看 CZ 将面临什么。我和一些专家谈过。根据我的研究，我认为他会在 10 月初出狱。但通常你会看到以前从未见过的情况。CZ 是世界上入狱的最富有的人（我想）。你不能用 Jimmy Walnuts 从当地自助洗衣店骗取 $500 来作为 指导 预测 $500 亿人的未来在刑事司法系统中会发生什么。所以这是一门非常不精确的科学。他最终比我预期的早了大约一周入狱，所以他比 EIGEN 早了几天，我失去了事件交易合同。但即使我输了，这也是一笔了不起的交易。

对于大额头寸，流动性既是机遇，也是制约因素。Polymarket 上的市场流动性会影响您的交易决策吗？如果会，是如何影响的？您是否曾遇到过流动性限制您进入或退出头寸的能力的情况？条件？

Liquidity is interesting, and I guess I don’t think about it too much anymore, except in certain specific situations.

As for exits – if there is a slippage on a trade, for a small, intuitive bet, I wouldnt care about liquidity. For a large, well-researched trade, I wouldnt care if I wanted to exit, so I don’t care about liquidity. This might apply to situations where I’m making a medium-sized trade where I think I might have an edge but I’m not entirely sure, and I might be hesitant to over-invest if liquidity is low. New information comes out and you could be stuck in illiquid markets. The answer is “it depends.”

至于入仓——我想每个人都希望有无限的流动性来入仓，哈哈。是的，有限的流动性对于我想要进行的几乎每笔交易来说都是一个挑战。但我会说是的，如果你最终交易量超过你的预期，那么高流动性可能是一件坏事。所以要意识到，市场中的高流动性可能会诱使你过度投资。我可能因为高流动性而过度投资，我可能错了。

看起来你每天要进行数百甚至数千笔交易。你的交易中，自动交易和手动交易的比例各占多少？

“No one believed me, but it was all manual. I had a large order book, so most of my trades were my orders being matched, rather than me manually entering new trades.”

您交易的预测类别范围很广，从政治到宏观经济。您是否发现某些类型的市场比其他市场更可预测或更有利可图？您的策略在不同类别之间有何不同？

这是个好问题。我应该考虑一下。我确实对自己擅长什么有一个模糊的概念。

但总的来说，我喜欢关注世界，所以我喜欢在各种各样的活动中下订单。我也喜欢涉足我不熟悉的新事物。因为如果我不熟悉它，很可能其他人也一样。不熟悉。所以我们都是从知识很少开始的，试图看看谁能最好地解决问题。这有点像比赛和拼图的结合。

To digress a little and talk about people’s “familiarity” with things, I’ve found that sometimes super experts in a field are actually very bad at predicting the things they’re experts in. This is because they overestimate their expertise.

作为 Polymarket 上最大的交易者，您对交易活动的产生有着独到的见解。距离美国总统大选不到 6 周，Polymarket 将面临两个新的压力：1）他们需要安全结算超过 $1 亿的交易，2）他们需要在选举市场结束后建立一个新的主导市场。您如何看待这两个挑战？在我们迈向这一时刻时，您希望 Polymarket 提供什么？

I don’t really see settlement as a stressor. Polymarket has settled tens of thousands of markets totaling billions of dollars. The US election market is going to be huge and potentially very contentious, but at the end of the day someone will be sworn in as the next president. I don’t think the settlement mechanism itself is a source of stress for a president (if no one is sworn in and a civil war breaks out, the world probably has bigger problems to worry about than Polymarket settlement). By the way, if you’re worried about settlement , you can always sell your winning shares to someone like me for $0.999!

In terms of the next big market, the U.S. presidential election is by far the biggest market in prediction markets. It is one of the largest team sports in the world, with hundreds of millions (billions?) of people at least loosely rooting for a particular So you certainly can’t replicate that kind of volume with a single market.

But there is no doubt that prediction markets in general are exploding. I remember the first “big” market after joining Polymarket in early 2021. It was the ship stuck in the Suez Canal. It blocked the passage of world trade. Almost all of the world Everyone on the site was placing orders like crazy. Reports were written about this market on Polymarket. And the total volume? Not even $500,000. If the same situation happened today, If a new ETF were to occur, the volume in the same market could easily exceed $50 million, or even more.

打个比方，2021 年的时候，Polymarket 就像一个小沙坑，里面有几个小孩在玩耍，现在它已经变成了一个有几千人聚集的大海滩，再过几年，它可能会变成一个有很多沙滩的岛屿。

有趣的新兴市场层出不穷，世界各地都在举行选举，而且你知道吗，2028 年的竞选活动将在下任总统就职后立即开始。我听说万斯将成为共和党的热门人选。

对于那些涉足股票/期权/加密货币但从未交易过二元事件合约的交易者，您会给出什么建议？您会如何向刚入门的人解释您的 Polymarket 策略？

首先，试一试。存入 $10 或 $100，或任何你想要的金额。最糟糕的情况是你玩得开心或兴奋，然后输光了。如果这是最糟糕的情况，那么你其实还不错，哈哈。

The second point I want to make is that you don’t have to be forced to predict any market or trade any single thing. Just because everyone is trading the presidential election doesn’t mean you need to be in it. There are hundreds of markets on the site right now. A variety of topics are covered. Look for areas where you think there might be an advantage. Try to find an advantage. If you find one, great, order it! If not, thats ok, you dont need to do anything, keep looking around for other Chance.

没有看到你喜欢的东西，但是有一个有趣的想法想要订购？加入我们的 Discord 群组并推荐你想要的市场。

至于策略，我建议你在下单时遵循这个一般准则：根据你的优势下单。如果你没有发现优势，就不要下单，除非你是为了好玩而故意下单（比如在你正在观看的比赛中下注）。如果你发现了优势，但不确定它是否真的有效，那就少下一点注。如果你认为你发现了很大的优势，那就下大注。这听起来可能很简单，甚至有点傻，但它是一个强大而重要的概念。很多人下了太多的订单，却没有任何优势。

我非常喜欢阅读您关于委内瑞拉总统大选的 X 帖子。它让我学到了很多关于发生的事情，但作为一名事件合约交易员，它教会了您什么？它是否改变了您处理似乎可能发生的事件的方式？市场是否会采取有争议的方法？

在 Polymarket 上，几乎所有市场都没有任何争议。超过 99.5% 的市场都没有任何问题或只有少数无关紧要的争议。

但有些罕见的争议却极具争议性。争议很棘手。它们既有趣又愚蠢，既引人入胜又令人紧张。新用户应该像躲避瘟疫一样避开它们，除非他们是受虐狂或知道自己将陷入什么境地。我在争议中经历过失败和胜利，但我记得失败的程度比胜利的程度要清晰 100 倍。

In the case of Venezuela, the opposition candidate may well have won the election, but the president in power manipulated the results and declared himself the winner. I suspect this happens at least semi-regularly around the world, with the ruling party manipulating elections to If that were all, the ruling party would be marked as the winner on Polymarket. But this time things get really interesting because the opposition anticipated electoral fraud and made a huge effort to prove it. They won the election, recruited thousands of volunteers and kept the proof of vote counts. They effectively proved they had won the election. The ruling party was caught off guard and quickly produced a spreadsheet of the real results. , but botched it, exposing the numbers they had just presented as impossible and fabricated. Ultimately, the UMA made a very controversial ruling that the evidence was sufficient to show that the opposition had won, despite the unlikely Let them take power (we’ll see, loose negotiations are ongoing). If it weren’t for the extremely strong chain of evidence and the obviously faked spreadsheet, this dictator would probably win on Polymarket.

Regarding my approach to controversy, unfortunately, since I’m invested in a lot of markets, I have to be involved in it. But after being hurt multiple times by UMA (my main criticism is that they don’t care about what they’re doing, and people who don’t care usually don’t care about what they do), I try to strictly limit the time I spend on debate. There is a group of users on Polymarket who are dedicated to trying to convince UMA in the dispute process, which involves a lot of nepotism and backroom dealing. It is all very unseemly and ridiculous. , even bordering on fraud, but I’ll leave that aside for now. However, keep this in mind when I answer questions about tokens later.

您如何看待 Kalshi 或 PredictIt 等非区块链平台？您使用它们吗？还是您的大部分交易量都在 Polymarket 上？您是否经常为同一事件在不同市场之间寻找套利机会？

I have used Kalshi and PredictIt in the past and would recommend them! But I don’t use them as much anymore because Polymarket has grown so big and it has become a full-on adventure platform for me.

我经常寻找套利机会，但如今很多人都在这样做，而这些机会很快就会消失。

You have to be careful with arbitrage and make sure there aren’t very subtle and nuanced differences between the markets, otherwise you could theoretically lose money on both platforms.

像 Polymarket 这样的预测市场正变得越来越受欢迎，尤其是在预测重大政治和经济事件方面。展望未来，您认为这些市场将如何发展？您是否认为它们有潜力变得足够有影响力，以至于它实际上可以影响现实世界的结果，而不仅仅是预测它们？

我认为这些市场将成为一类重要的金融合约，被广泛引用和参考，以致于变得司空见惯和司空见惯。

One of the largest markets on Polymarket that doesn’t get a lot of attention is the Fed’s actions. These markets are currently trading tens of millions of dollars because it is both unpredictable and very important. There is already a similar “prediction” in financial markets. 市场s” and is often cited – CME (and its FedWatch chart). You’ll see these numbers all over the financial web and in news articles. What you hear less (but this will change) are the likes of Polymarket and Kalshi The traders in these markets are more accurate than the CME. Yes, amateurs are more accurate than professionals. In forecasting, accuracy is key, so you will see media quotes evolve over time to reflect this. a little.

至于影响现实世界事件，我认为这更像是一个哲学问题。就我个人而言，我来自扑克背景，扑克规则之一是不要敲玻璃。如果桌上有一个坏玩家，如果你是一条鱼，你就不要让他知道他是一条鱼，否则他可能会改变他的行为（比如离开，或者学习更多）。从这个意义上讲，我不同意试图通过影响事件来解决市场问题。我认为两者之间应该有一堵墙。退出哲学问题——不影响世界事件是否现实，我不知道。尾巴可能开始摇狗了。

目前您最喜欢被忽视的 PM 合约是什么？为什么？哪些新市场需要尽快推出？

好吧，如果有一份被忽视的合同，我可能会尽可能悄悄地购买尽可能多的股份，所以我无论如何都不会分享这些信息（现在确实有市场！）。但我给你一个迂回的答案：

I think people have become accustomed to the assumption that the US election will be close, and I think a savvy trader might find opportunities to bet against the conventional wisdom that “it’s going to be very close!” if Trump or A surprise victory by Kamala would net them a nice profit, a realistic possible outcome, even if it didn’t seem that way from media coverage.

尽管代币的利润丰厚，但人们一直在争论项目是否真的需要发行自己的代币。 代币 生成事件 (TGE)。您认为原生代币是否会改善 Polymarket 的用户体验？什么会变得容易？什么会变得更加困难？

This may offend some people, but I am not a proponent of cryptocurrency. At least not yet. I feel that most of the cryptocurrency is just potential and does not really take advantage of blockchain/ledger technology. Unfortunately, A lot of crypto is hype, scams, hacks, and people trying to make a quick buck. Ive spoken to two people who have been in jail for ridiculous crypto crimes. Ive been paying close attention to airdrops (because theyre popular on Polymarket). Market! ), but it is completely unclear why many projects are issuing tokens, which is ridiculous. I won’t name them!

Against the backdrop of my skepticism towards cryptocurrencies and my skepticism towards airdrops, I will say that I strongly support Polymarket Token. And it’s not because I’m biased! Let me explain.

I think the potential of cryptocurrency, in my opinion, is in the form of something like Polymarket. This is the largest prediction market ever built with smart contracts, and every transaction is on-chain. Your money is not Instead of being sent to some company, your money is stored in a wallet that you control. The determination of the results is decentralized (well, mostly, but I’ll get to that later). All of this is a big deal. In my opinion, Polymarket is a huge innovation in multiple ways. I may be biased, but I think it is the first killer app built on the blockchain.

If someone asked me if they should get involved in crypto, I’d probably ask “What part of crypto?” and “…are you sure?” But if someone asked me if they should get involved in Polymarket, I’d say “Yes.” , I will help you get started! 」

So the beauty of having a token for this is that this prediction market has thousands of markets that need to be solved. As I discussed before, 95% of the solutions are simple, but sometimes confusing and difficult. Token holders with a vested interest in success should be the ones to decide on solutions to unclear markets. Currently, UMA votes on disputes, but I think their interests are somewhat aligned with Polymarket, but not completely aligned, and if interests If there is not complete agreement, then the voters themselves may lose interest. This is indeed the case. What is disappointing is their lack of interest. UMA’s ownership of the tokens itself is also somewhat centralized, so you will find that very few people Many of these disputes are decided by the decentralized exchange. This undermines what could otherwise be a fully decentralized exchange. A token that can help smooth the dispute resolution process would solve many problems. If Polymarket is a killer app, then the killer app needed is The function is the process of resolving disputes.

我看到您在推荐书籍中列出了卡尼曼的一本书——启发式、风险/损失规避心理学和双系统思维都在赌博中发挥作用。您认为卡尼曼会怎么看待这个问题？多元市场？他的哪些教义经常浮现在您的脑海中？

It’s no exaggeration to say that I think about what Kahneman and Tversky wrote about bias every day. Their findings are simple — and a little obvious in some ways — but also very profound. Some of the things I think about include: Price anchoring, endowment effect, loss aversion, availability bias. There are many others. If you want to be a top trader or a top trader in any field, you should have a deeper understanding of the biases that try to control your brain. learn.

丹尼尔·卡尼曼 (Daniel Kahnemann) 会喜欢 Polymarket。他是预测市场的倡导者。

最后，我想说，偏见很难摆脱，你必须保持警惕，防止因偏见而亏损。我喜欢说（并且相信）在预测市场赚钱很容易。未来是不可预测的，但并非不可预测。你可以很容易地找到可以赚钱的市场。但预测市场真正困难的部分是避免在愚蠢的事情上损失大量资金。因为虽然预测市场很容易赚钱，但赔钱更容易。阅读卡尼曼和特朗普我试图通过我的书避免其中的一些陷阱，因为许多愚蠢的交易只是在事后才被交易员视为愚蠢的。而这不一定是后视偏差的情况！

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本文来源于网络：对话Domer：如何成为Polymarket第一交易员？

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