技術指標預示比特幣大幅回檔——比特幣會在新年前下跌嗎？

加密貨幣市場開始降溫，比特幣價格未能突破當前價格之上的頑固阻力。而且，先前週期出現的技術訊號也顯示局部頂部已經形成。

12 月 27 日，鏈上分析供應商 CryptoQuant 報告了 Puell Multiple 指標歷史阻力對比特幣市場的重要性。

比特幣價格回檔迫在眉睫？

分析師指出，他們看到普埃爾倍數達到了前幾年的重大阻力值。他們補充說，該技術指標在 2012 年、2016 年和 2019 年尤其出現。

“These periods were marked by a significant reversal in Bitcoin prices,” they stated.

普埃爾倍數是用來評估比特幣是否超買或超賣的技術指標。

它將 BTC 的每日發行量（開採的比特幣數量乘以價格）與發行量的 365 天移動平均值進行比較。

像目前的水平一樣，較高的普埃爾倍數表明比特幣已經超買，因為礦工正在以高價出售大量比特幣。這表明價格可能即將調整。

這些普埃爾多重模式在前兩個週期中期頂部出現，隨後出現了大幅回檔。 CryptoQuant 分析師指出：

“This consistency over time suggests that the Puell Multiple can serve as a valuable indicator for investors, alerting to potential market reversals when it reaches these specific resistance levels.”

閱讀更多：透過 BTC 價格預測增強您的投資能力

該指標由 David Puell 於 2014 年創建，被加密貨幣交易者用來幫助確定波動的比特幣市場的入場和出場時間。一般來說，普埃爾倍數高於 4 被視為超買區域，低於 0.5 則被視為超賣區域。

其他回調訊號

The Puell Multiple isn’t the only thing signaling a market correction. Earlier this week, BeInCrypto reported that the Korean “kimchi premium” was also at high levels.

此前，這被視為市場過熱、即將回檔的指標。當韓國交易所的 BTC 價格因當地的 FOMO 而高於全球現貨價格時，就會發生這種情況。

Not all were predicting a correction, however. Analyst “CrediBULL Crypto” is convinced that the peak of the bull market will come in 2024, with 2025 entering another bear market.

“In the coming months I expect further continuation upwards, at a more aggressive pace than we have seen thus far, as we build up to what will be a blow-off top for the books to conclude this multi-year cycle.”

‘Ramen Panda’ said, “I don’t think Bitcoin will drop much. It may not even break 41k,” before adding that it will then “chop for a long time.”

BTC 在當天下跌 1% 之後，目前交易價格為 $42,437。