BIT Research: Why Is Bitcoin Outperforming Traditional Assets Amid Escalating Geopolitical Conflicts?

Based on current pricing, the market still tends to view this round of shocks as a temporary inflation disturbance, with the implied assumption that the impact on energy and shipping is relatively controllable and will ease within a reasonable timeframe. However, as risks continue to accumulate, the interplay between energy, interest rates, and risk appetite is intensifying, and the macro narrative is shifting from a “short-term inflation shock” to a “potential growth shock.” In this process, Bitcoin’s performance is beginning to show structural characteristics distinct from traditional assets.

Inflation Shock Dominates Pricing: Energy and Rates Reshape Risk Asset Performance

The core driver in the first stage of this shock remains the inflationary pressure stemming from rising oil prices. Higher Brent crude prices are pushing up inflation expectations, tightening financial conditions, and putting pressure on risk assets. In this stage, neither stocks nor Bitcoin can fully avoid adjustment pressures.

However, compared to traditional risk assets, Bitcoin possesses a key difference: its price has already experienced a significant correction, leaving relatively limited potential for passive selling pressure in the market. This “positional advantage” allows it to demonstrate stronger resilience under equivalent macro shocks. Simultaneously, in a high oil price environment, real interest rates remain elevated, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Bitcoin, lacking physical holding costs, gradually gains a comparative advantage.

As the shock persists, the market may enter a second stage, transitioning gradually from inflation concerns to growth concerns. Weakness in industrial commodities like copper begins to reflect suppressed demand, with marginal weakening in global growth expectations. In this stage, pure inflation logic will no longer suffice to explain market movements, and the macro pricing framework begins to change.

From Growth Concerns to Policy Response: Liquidity Expectations May Become the Key Variable

If the shock further extends, the market is highly likely to enter a third stage: the policy response phase. When growth pressures intensify and financial conditions remain tight, policymakers often intervene through fiscal or monetary measures, including price controls, subsidies, or broader liquidity injections.

The key change in this stage is that market pricing will shift from being “inflation-dominated” to “liquidity expectation-dominated.” Historical experience shows that in environments where liquidity is re-injected, Bitcoin often benefits from its non-sovereign asset attributes, demonstrating stronger resilience.

Meanwhile, the structure of global capital flows is also changing. Since the freezing of the Russian central bank’s reserves, market trust in the “neutrality” of reserve assets has been shaken. Resource-exporting countries are adjusting their asset allocation structures, gradually shifting from U.S. Treasuries and stocks towards gold and other assets. This change compresses the global liquidity space, pushes up long-term interest rates, and makes the macro environment more complex. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s relative performance depends not only on risk appetite but is also closely related to its position within the liquidity cycle. Once the market begins pricing in expectations of policy easing, Bitcoin’s relative advantages may further strengthen.

Overall, the evolution path of this macro shock is gradually transitioning from an “oil price-driven inflation shock” to a “growth shock under energy constraints,” and may ultimately enter a “policy intervention-dominated liquidity phase.” In this process, traditional assets face dual pressures from interest rates and growth, while Bitcoin, having already undergone a certain degree of price adjustment and possessing higher sensitivity to liquidity, is demonstrating relative resilience.

For investors, the key at the current stage lies not in the short-term volatility itself, but in identifying the phase shift of the macro narrative. Once the market shifts from an inflation logic to a liquidity logic, Bitcoin may transform from a passively pressured asset into a relative beneficiary in the new round of pricing.

The views above are partly sourced from BIT on Target. お問い合わせ to obtain the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.

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