BTC Starts the Year on a Sour Note, Plunging and Then Drifting Lower; Is the Market Bottoming?

要約

• In February, the correction in 暗号 assets widened due to rising risk aversion and insufficient liquidity, making the market more vulnerable to shocks;
• 市場 demand weakened, with negative Coinbase Premium Index, ETF outflows, and slowing stablecoin growth indicating declining institutional participation;
• Amid valuation repricing, structural trends continue to advance, with increased tokenization activity and deeper integration of on-chain infrastructure with traditional markets.

Market Performance

February began with intense volatility. During the sell-off on February 5-6, Bitcoin briefly fell below $61,000, marking one of the worst starts to a year for crypto assets in over a decade. The entire crypto asset market has been in a sustained correction from its October 2025 highs: Bitcoin has retraced nearly half its value, while Ethereum and Solana have fallen back to levels seen before the approval of spot ETFs in 2024.

Meanwhile, the performance of various asset classes has diverged sharply: gold is up 15% year-to-date, supported by safe-haven demand and its role as a non-dollar store of value amid geopolitical and tariff uncertainties. In a risk-off environment, crypto assets have traded more like high-beta tech stocks, falling alongside growth stocks, with the market reacting intensely to the rapidly evolving AI wave and shock risks.

The weakness in crypto assets appears to be more a result of receding risk appetite, low liquidity, and ongoing deleveraging, rather than a collapse in fundamentals.

Capital Inflows Retreat

Behind the correction, core demand and liquidity have deteriorated simultaneously. The Coinbase Premium Index (measuring the price difference between BTC/USD on Coinbase and BTC/USDT on Binance) is a key indicator of U.S. spot market demand. This index has been consistently negative since November 2025 and deepened further in February, indicating persistent selling pressure and a lack of institutional buying in the U.S. market. The recent recovery in the premium suggests the most intense phase of U.S. spot selling may be over, but demand remains weak.

Overlaying this with the net flows of Bitcoin ETFs shows a high degree of synchronization between the two. These two metrics measure U.S. institutional demand from different angles and both fell below zero almost simultaneously. In each downtrend, the premium often declines before fund flows, as spot prices react quickly, while ETF redemptions take longer to materialize. Year-to-date, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net outflows exceeding $4 billion, erasing a significant portion of last year’s inflows.

Thin Liquidity, Volatile Trading Volume

Market liquidity remains fragile. The depth of Bitcoin spot order books (±2% range liquidity) on major exchanges plummeted from around $40-50 million in August-October 2025 and has remained in the $15-25 million range. Liquidity contracted further in February, directly amplifying price volatility.

The growth rate of stablecoin supply has also slowed noticeably since December. The combined market capitalization of USDT and USDC has hovered around $260 billion, indicating a halt in new capital inflows rather than a wholesale capital exodus. Taken together, retreating institutional demand, insufficient order book depth, and slowing stablecoin growth mean the conditions supporting a sustained recovery remain incomplete.

On October 10 and February 5, trading volumes for spot, futures, and options spiked significantly. Total Bitcoin trading volume reached $244 billion and $235 billion respectively, with futures volume dominating at $177 billion on February 5. Although market turbulence was comparable to October’s, spot trading volume was slightly lower, consistent with increased price volatility due to low order book liquidity. Historically, such high-volume selling often coincides with the end of forced liquidation phases, suggesting the most intense part of this decline may be nearing its end.

RWA Perpetual Contracts on Hyperliquid

Meanwhile, the momentum for real-world asset tokenization and the fusion of on-chain finance with traditional finance continues to strengthen. Hyperliquid is one of the primary beneficiaries, expanding its on-chain perpetual contracts from crypto assets to commodities, stocks, the Nasdaq 100 index, and other products.

This expansion was enabled by the HIP-3 protocol upgrade, which allows permissionless creation of perpetual markets for any asset, complete with built-in oracles and fee structures.

Although Bitcoin and Ethereum remain the assets with the largest open interest, the share of HIP-3 markets on the platform continues to grow. On February 5, the total volume of HIP-3 perpetual contracts peaked at approximately $4.6 billion, primarily driven by commodities, with a single-day volume of $3.8 billion and cumulative volume exceeding $30 billion since January. Gold and silver were particularly prominent, with silver’s trading volume peaking at $3.4 billion.

Open interest (OI) grew in tandem. The total OI for HIP-3 markets increased from around $290 million in early January to a peak near $975 million on January 29, before retreating to about $830 million by late February. This indicates sustained and growing demand for on-chain exposure to commodities, stocks, and indices.

Bitcoin Enters the “Value Zone”

Bitcoin’s current decline has approached its realized price (currently around $55,000), which is the average on-chain acquisition cost of all coins. At historical cycle lows, Bitcoin has frequently traded near or below the realized price, marking the market’s transition from euphoria to capitulation, and eventually into an accumulation phase.

Concurrently, valuation metrics like MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) have compressed into historically undervalued ranges, though not yet to the extreme levels seen at the bottoms of previous bear markets. These signals suggest that a significant amount of froth has been squeezed out of the market, and it is gradually entering a value zone.

Beneath the price adjustment, multiple trends continue to drive the integration of crypto assets into mainstream financial infrastructure. Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 demonstrates how crypto trading platforms are increasingly being used to trade traditional assets. BlackRock’s introduction of its tokenized fund BUIDL to Uniswap, and Apollo’s agreement to acquire MORPHO tokens, similarly highlight how institutions are integrating DeFi liquidity and governance into their workflows.

Meanwhile, leading DeFi protocols like Aave and Uniswap are gradually moving towards clearer benefits for token holders and value accrual, shifting the industry from purely narrative and governance-driven models towards cash-flow generating assets. On the traditional finance side, CME’s launch of 24/7 crypto futures trading and the CFTC’s more positive stance towards prediction markets show that regulatory platforms and policymakers are adapting to the 24/7 operational structure of crypto markets.

結論

The February correction appears more like a stress test on capital and liquidity in a risk-off environment, rather than a collapse in fundamentals. Crypto assets are still traded as liquidity-sensitive, growth-linked assets, but their role within market infrastructure, institutional portfolios, and on-chain integration continues to deepen.

Short-term market volatility may persist, but progress on the CLARITY Act and a reversal in fund flows will be key catalysts determining whether demand can stage a durable recovery.

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