Odaily Editors’ Tea Talk (June 17)

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial members. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising nor constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is solely to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to manufacture consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram Group, X Official Account) to discuss, question, and joke around with us.

Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Bio: Still learning the ropes

Sharing: 1. My trading frequency has picked up slightly compared to a while ago. On the Crypto side, I bought some on the dip a few days ago (mainly BTC), but my entry points were generally on the high side (6.2-6.6k), so there’s basically no profit yet. On the US stock side, I added a small position in HOOD; the logic was covered in an article I wrote a couple of days back. Also, I’m playing the World Cup on prediction markets, combining small, high-frequency copy trading (trying out a new tool, seems decent so far, will recommend in a few days) with larger, low-frequency manual orders.

2. HYPE has been performing well lately, but I increasingly feel that “the more expensive HYPE gets, the worse it is for Hyperliquid”. The reason is that Hyperliquid’s most promising narrative previously was building a multi-asset trading ecosystem around HIP-3. However, trade.xyz has become dominant among HIP-3 projects, with Felix and Ventuals shutting down one after another… The excessively high HYPE price is actually becoming an obstacle to expanding the HIP-3 blueprint (building a custom market based on HIP-3 requires staking 500,000 HYPE, which is over $35 million at current prices). The market’s previous vision was “Hyperliquid + countless custom markets,” but the current reality is more like “Hyperliquid + trade.xyz.” If the upper-layer market solidifies into just one player, trade.xyz, it clearly doesn’t match the market’s earlier expectations in terms of user reach and future potential.

Suzz (@aidongshoupai)

Bio: Just sold SK Hynix too early

Sharing: The market never lacks opportunities, but it always lacks calm capital and composure. The capital market is perpetually fluid; the market doesn’t end just because you missed one opportunity. The short-term moonshots missed today, the hot sectors missed, the bottom-fishing opportunities missed – they are just insignificant specks in the ocean of market chances. The market operates day in and day out. New and old themes rotate, cycles of ups and downs repeat. If you miss this train, the next one will arrive soon. Investing doesn’t require catching every single move. We only need to seize opportunities within our circle of competence and acceptable risk. Obsessing over lost opportunities and being swept away by anxiety is itself the biggest trap in investing. Instead of draining yourself over missing the boat, it’s better to settle down, improve your knowledge, and wait for your own moment.

Beyond that, reviewing my past trading history, I discovered a very interesting phenomenon: Looking back with hindsight, you can easily see high-quality opportunities everywhere. Looking back at the market from last year, last month, or even a few weeks ago, we can clearly see which assets were at lows, which tracks were about to explode, and which moves were worth going big on. It seems like profitable opportunities were everywhere for the taking. But this is the “rearview mirror thinking” trap – seeing the market clearly after the fact, yet feeling lost and clueless in the present. Actually, this phenomenon proves a core truth: History had countless opportunities, and the present never lacks them either. The opportunities of the past didn’t disappear; we just lacked the knowledge and had a restless mindset, unable to identify or seize them. Similarly, the market right now is still filled with countless investment opportunities at different levels and risk profiles.

golem (@web3_golem)

Bio: Golem’s wild ideas

Sharing: On June 16th, SpaceX announced the acquisition of Anysphere, the parent company of AI coding tool Cursor, for $60 billion. This acquisition is essentially a mutually beneficial exchange. Musk needs Cursor’s developer data to train his AI model, Grok. Anysphere needs the vast computing power behind SpaceX to train its own AI model, Composer, to compete against the models from its former partner, Anthropic.

But beyond the strategic significance for both parties, an easily overlooked detail of this acquisition is its impact on SpaceX’s stock price. Because Musk didn’t actually spend a dime; the entire acquisition of Cursor was paid for using SpaceX’s Class A common stock.

According to SEC filing documents, SpaceX implemented the merger through its wholly-owned subsidiary X67 Inc., which merged into Anysphere. Cursor, as the surviving entity, became a wholly-owned subsidiary of SpaceX. Upon completion of the merger, all common and preferred stock of Anysphere will be converted into SpaceX Class A common stock, with the exchange ratio calculated based on the volume-weighted average price over the seven consecutive trading days prior to the closing.

Clearly, Musk got the better end of the deal in this acquisition. Paying with SpaceX stock allows Musk to leverage the company’s currently high valuation to complete the acquisition with a relatively smaller equity dilution. Therefore, the actual cost of the acquisition is much lower, essentially paying mostly with “bubble” value…

Now, here’s the key point: As of June 16th, when both parties signed the merger agreement, only three trading days had passed since SpaceX’s IPO. Therefore, the earliest stock delivery between the parties will happen next week. To complete the acquisition cheaper and with fewer shares, will the “Musk interest group” actively work to stabilize SpaceX’s trading volume and keep its market cap high?

Of course, there’s no strong causal link here; this is just an analytical guess regarding the impact on SPCX’s stock price.

The current price of SPCX is mainly driven by market sentiment. According to recent data from Vanda Track, SpaceX remains the most sought-after stock by retail investors, topping the net inflow chart for US individual stocks for several consecutive days. But retail enthusiasm inevitably fades; “faith” has its price. When that happens, institutions will need to take over as the baton and become the main force stabilizing SPCX’s price.

Wenser (@wenser2010)

Bio: Tea-filler assistant, 加密貨幣 soy sauce player, media observer

Sharing: 1. BTC has rebounded slightly, and the US-Iran situation has eased. I’m still bullish for now, but I’ll consider opening short positions to test the waters at $68k-$69k.

2. SpaceX’s IPO is over, but the closing price on the first day didn’t hold a $2.2 trillion market cap. Lost 10U on it. But once it enters the Nasdaq in July, I see it going above $250.

3. Dabbling in the World Cup with small positions. There were quite a few upsets and draws in the first two days of the group stage, especially the Spain vs. Cape Verde 0-0, which probably caught a lot of people. The win rate for strong teams has been picking up lately. Currently favoring France, Argentina, Germany, and Norway; worth paying attention to going forward.

4. Japanese and Korean stock markets continue to surge. The trend of the strong getting stronger remains evident. The next milestone events are likely the Fed rate hike or the Anthropic/OpenAI IPO. Personally, I think Anthropic has the potential to be the next ‘biggest IPO in history’ after SpaceX, with its market cap potentially jumping to the $2-3 trillion range. I saw a post shared by a group member saying “the AI industry is a capital-intensive industry just like real estate,” and I think it makes a lot of sense. So, positioning in defensive investments like selling picks and shovels seems like a good strategy.

Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng888)

Bio: Options enthusiast, Meme bag holder

Sharing: In terms of operations, last week I went long on HYPE when it dipped to around $56, and gradually sold off after it hit $70. Selling wasn’t because I’m bearish; I just think a major breakout is unlikely in the short term. However, in the long run, the $50-$60 range is likely to become a significant support zone. I plan to continue buying at this level. Two reasons for this: First, for this wave of traditional assets coming on-chain for trading, Hyperliquid has basically captured the biggest share of the benefits. Transaction fees have been soaring, and HYPE buybacks have surged. Over the past six months, the average monthly buyback has exceeded $60 million. It’s worth noting that 97-99% of Hyperliquid’s platform trading fee revenue is directly used to buy back HYPE on the open market. No other exchange is doing this right now, and this is its greatest growth flywheel. The second reason is that since the launch of the HYPE spot ETF, cumulative net inflows have reached $180 million, with an average daily net inflow of $7.5 million. The strong preference of traditional capital for HYPE is evident, treatment that other 加密貨幣 ETFs haven’t received since their launch.

Regarding ETH, there’s a bizarre situation in the market right now. Pure crypto investors are thoroughly disappointed with ETH – its price performance over the past few years has been very lackluster, leading to significant opportunity costs. Conversely, traditional investors, especially Wall Street figures like Tom Lee, are consistently adding real money to ETH, viewing it as an undervalued “Amazon.” Neither side can convince the other, so we’ll leave it to time to decide. Personally, I think ETH has really fallen to a “dirt cheap” price right now. Your entry cost now is lower than Bitmine’s.

本文源自網路： Odaily Editors’ Tea Talk (June 17)

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