BTC market dominance surges to 61%—Is altseason on the horizon?

Original author: Trading View

Original translation: Peggy, BlockBeats

Editor’s note: Bitcoin remains the main narrative of the current 加密貨幣 market rebound. Over the past two months, BTC has risen approximately 36% from its low of $60,000, pushing its market dominance above 61%, the highest since November last year. This indicates that while market sentiment has somewhat recovered, funds are still flowing back primarily to Bitcoin rather than altcoins.

However, the altcoin market has also started showing early signs of recovery. The proportion of altcoin trading volume on Binance has risen from 31% in March to 49%, and TOTAL3, the total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH, has rebounded to a two-month high. Meanwhile, some altcoins have reclaimed their 200-day moving averages, and their overall declines are narrowing.

But this does not yet signal the arrival of “altcoin season.” Although the AltSeason Index has recovered to 28.6, it remains far from the strong altcoin cycle threshold of 75. In other words, capital is beginning to diffuse from BTC and ETH, but the rotation is still mild.

Altcoins have not fully launched; they have just emerged from their weakest phase. The current market is still dominated by Bitcoin, while altcoins are in a recovery observation period. Whether a true altcoin rally can materialize next depends on BTC’s ability to remain stable and whether altcoin trading volumes and market caps can continue to recover.

Below is the original text:

On Wednesday, Bitcoin’s market dominance rose to 61%, reaching its highest level since November 2025. This metric has been steadily climbing from 58.44% in early April, indicating that the current upward trend is still more biased towards BTC rather than the broader crypto market.

Meanwhile, over the past two months, altcoin trading volume on Binance has also increased by 49%. Additionally, 12.6% of altcoins on Binance have reclaimed their 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

Bitcoin market dominance one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Altcoins Show Early Signs of Recovery

Crypto analyst Darkfost stated that since hitting a low of $60,000 on February 6, Bitcoin has risen 36%, pushing its market dominance to 61.3%.

Although altcoins have been under pressure for much of this period, TOTAL3, which tracks the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has risen 17% to a two-month high of $765 billion. While the recovery pace of altcoins still lags behind BTC, several indicators are beginning to improve.

TOTAL3 one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

CryptoQuant data shows that trading activity in the altcoin market is slowly recovering. Compared to the combined trading volume of BTC and ETH futures on Binance, the proportion of altcoin trading volume rose to 49% on Wednesday, up from 31% in March. This shift indicates growing market participation beyond these two major crypto assets after months of concentrated capital flow into Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Darkfost added that this capital rotation is still relatively mild, significantly different from the aggressive rotation phase seen during the previous altcoin rally in 2024.

Altcoin trading volume share. Source: CryptoQuant

交換 Volume Trends Point to Capital Rotation

市場 analyst CW8900 pointed out that the recovery in trading activity on centralized exchanges (CEXs) is another signal of improved participation beyond Bitcoin.

According to the analyst, altcoin trading volume, excluding the top five crypto assets by market cap, has been rising steadily over the past few weeks.

CEX volume share compared to top 5 crypto assets. Source: CryptoQuant

The 90-day AltSeason Index has also risen to 28.6, marking its fastest recovery pace in months. This index measures whether a majority of altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin during a specific period. Typically, a reading above 75 indicates a strong altcoin cycle. However, CW8900 added:

“This metric also shows that there hasn’t truly been an altcoin season in this cycle. The AltSeason Index peaked in early 2024, but even then, the value was relatively low compared to previous altcoin seasons.”

CryptoQuant data also reveals that the altcoin market has improved overall after months of significant underperformance relative to Bitcoin. Currently, the average altcoin price is 23.47% below its 200-day simple moving average, a notable recovery from the -44.4% level seen earlier in this cycle. Similar readings were observed around the end of the bear market in late 2022.

Average altcoin performance relative to 200-day simple moving average. Source: CryptoQuant

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