The Block Research Predicts: IPOs Will Outperform Token Launches, Forecasting Markets to Launch Their Own Chains

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As the new year begins, the renowned 加密貨幣 research firm The Block Research has released its annual predictions report as usual. As one of the earliest established professional research teams in the industry, The Block Research is highly influential within the circle due to its in-depth data analysis and reliable market insights. This year, their analyst team has made several bold predictions: Bitcoin will surge to $140,000, stablecoin market cap will surpass $500 billion, Polymarket and Base will launch tokens and enter the top ten, and several crypto companies will go public via IPO, among others. Interestingly, the analysts’ views are not entirely aligned; some are optimistic about a minor bull market in 2026, while others believe the market will continue to diverge.

This predictions report is a compilation of each individual’s independent viewpoints. Let’s see what the industry’s top researchers have to say; remember to come back at the end of the year to see whose predictions were off the mark!

Steven’s Predictions

Bitmine, under Tom Lee, will conduct its first ETH sell-off before the end of Q1 2026. This sell-off will act as a catalyst, prompting more Digital Asset Trust (DAT) treasuries to follow suit with sales, further dampening market sentiment.

Bitcoin’s market dominance will remain above 50% throughout the year.

Polymarket and Base are set to launch tokens, with their fully diluted valuations potentially entering the top ten by market cap.

The Base ecosystem will see a surge in mobile-first crypto applications. The market will experience several small-scale hype rotations similar to 2025, including: the RWA (Real World Assets) sector, the prediction markets sector, and mobile-focused projects.

Tether, in collaboration with other institutions, will launch a cryptocurrency exchange in the United States.

Robinhood will list cryptocurrency perpetual contracts.

Eden’s Predictions

The velocity of stablecoin circulation is set to explode, primarily driven by regulated payment institutions beginning to adopt stablecoins for clearing and settlement. The total stablecoin market cap will exceed $400 billion, but USDT’s market share will decline. The number of stablecoins with a market cap over $1 billion will reach 20. The total value of non-stablecoin RWAs will surpass $30 billion. Beyond gold, other commodities will also be tokenized and gain some market acceptance.

Decentralized perpetual contract exchanges will launch stock and commodity perpetuals, generating significant trading volume. The trading volume ratio between DEXs and CEXs will stabilize around 20% for both spot and perpetuals. RFQ-based DEXs will begin to gain prominence.

Polymarket and Kalshi’s annual trading volume will at least triple, and the two will engage in fierce competition for exclusive partnerships. At least one of them will launch its own blockchain.

Plasma will become a top-four public chain by TVL (Total Value Locked) based on genuine on-chain activity, standing as one of the few enterprise-grade blockchains with real organic growth. Base and MetaMask will issue native tokens. Multiple leading crypto firms like Kraken, BitGo, and Consensys will initiate IPOs, re-attracting mainstream capital attention. Strategy and BitMine will not sell their BTC and ETH holdings.

Bitcoin will break through $140,000. Although Bitcoin’s dominance will decline, it will not fall significantly below 50%.

Bitcoin will set a new all-time high in Q2.

NFT and memecoin launchpads will not make a comeback.

The privacy narrative will gradually fade from the market.

The four-year cycle theory will be debunked by year-end.

Gabriel’s Predictions

DATs will continue to trade below their modified Net Asset Value (mNAV), forcing many funds to sell assets. As crypto ETFs become increasingly convenient to trade and offer better risk-reward ratios, the DAT narrative will gradually lose its appeal.

Massive token unlocks combined with weak market sentiment will lead to sustained selling pressure on tokens issued in this cycle. Short-sighted buyback-and-burn strategies will become a burden for projects when market sentiment deteriorates and cash reserves dwindle.

Funding valuations will be significantly lower than this year’s levels. Many VCs will learn from their high-valuation investments—while seemingly cheaper than previous cycles, valuations will continue to adjust downward as the industry matures and hype subsides.

Network-native tokens will struggle to attract buyers because stablecoins are becoming the most attractive and widely used asset class in DeFi, and on-chain activity is accelerating its shift from being priced in ETH and SOL to being priced in USDC.

Ivan’s Predictions

2026 will see a K-shaped recovery pattern: low-quality projects will lose market attention, while capital and focus will concentrate on high-quality projects with real paying users.

Outperforming sectors will include decentralized perpetual contract exchanges and prediction markets.

Crypto projects will generally begin to delay token launches, opting instead for the IPO route. Similarly, high-quality DATs will continue to explore on-chain use cases, while other funds will be forced to sell tokens under pressure from continuously shrinking NAV.

Due to altcoins struggling to maintain their market position, Bitcoin’s dominance will rise in 2026, with capital flowing into listed crypto companies. Crypto stocks will continue to perform strongly, benefiting from business diversification (miners pivoting to AI compute, exchanges launching stock trading, etc.). Despite volatility, Bitcoin will outperform the Nasdaq in 2026. In non-crypto areas, US gold sales will mark a bottom for the US Dollar Index.

Brandon’s Predictions

The rise of bank-issued deposit tokens in 2026 will lead to fragmentation of institutional liquidity across proprietary ledgers of different banks (e.g., competition between JPM Coin and Citi Coin). As global banks are structurally unable to hold large amounts of their competitors’ liabilities, USDC will become the dominant neutral bridging asset. Much of its growth in 2026 will stem from its value as a settlement tool between isolated banking networks.

Agent-to-Agent trading will become standardized on the x402 protocol and account for a significant share of global on-chain activity.

Cryptocurrency “Greek letter” derivatives, such as implied volatility products (e.g., BTCVOL-PERP) or funding rate swaps, will gain market favor in 2026.

Alessandro’s Predictions

2026 will start slowly, trading within a range in the first half. High-risk premiums and selective capital will favor blue-chip cryptocurrencies. The consistent winners will be products with real users and sustained usage, especially wallets and trading platforms, which will continue to acquire users even if their tokens perform weakly. The second half will be generally bullish, with a few ecosystems and projects attracting most of the incremental capital. The strongest buying will come from novel consumer products that combine risk with solid fundamentals.

Cross-chain interoperability will become the main theme of the year, with improvements in cross-chain routing and chain abstraction allowing “super apps” to gain market share. RWAs will make progress through tokenized stocks, equity perpetuals, and credit products, while traditional finance continues to advance internal or permissioned Distributed Ledger Technology. This will exacerbate the divergence between “true crypto” (as a high-risk testing ground for new mechanisms and markets) and enterprise-grade DLT settlement systems.

Better execution, tools, and automation will further concentrate arbitrage opportunities among professional institutions. Stablecoin supply growth will accelerate, with the USD still dominant, but the Swiss Franc and Singapore Dollar showing the strongest growth from a small base. Prediction markets will see compound growth during the US midterm elections, while the risk of a messy insider trading investigation also rises.

Simon’s Predictions

Bitcoin’s dominance will stay above 50%. Total cryptocurrency market cap will not break $4 trillion. ETF flows for all coins will remain net positive throughout the year. Non-BTC and non-ETH ETF trading volume will reach $20 billion. Stablecoin adoption will continue to grow, with traditional enterprises launching new stablecoins and existing ones continuing to expand.

Prediction markets will be the fastest-growing crypto application in 2026, with open interest reaching $500 million and trading volume accounting for 3% of total CEX volume. These platforms will issue tokens to aggressively attract users. Thanks to technological advancements, decentralized derivatives trading volume will continue to grow, reaching 25% of centralized derivatives trading volume.

NFT will not revive in 2026, and NFT 市場 trading volume will continue to shrink.

Tiago’s Predictions

Prediction markets will continue to be one of the strongest narratives in crypto, while other concepts that dominated the market in the past two years, such as memecoins and various launchpads, will lose momentum.

Even as ETFs and other financial instruments continue to attract institutional and retail attention, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies will struggle to set new all-time highs against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions.

Stablecoins will remain the strongest narrative for attracting new users into crypto, with major players either launching their own stablecoins or establishing partnerships with established institutions like Circle and Tether.

Ian’s Predictions

Most DATs will collapse in 2026 as their share prices fall below NAV, breaking the equity issuance model that supported their growth in 2025. Crypto ETFs offer better liquidity and lower fees, further squeezing DATs’ survival space. Strategy and a few large institutions will survive due to their scale and brand advantages, but smaller DATs face liquidation, acquisition, or forced transformation.

Stablecoin supply will surpass the $500 billion mark, with transaction volume exceeding the US ACH system in Q3. Growth will accelerate on two fronts: continued expansion in emerging markets and integration into corporate payment flows in developed markets. Enterprises will shift from passive holding to practical application, migrating part of cross-border supplier payments, international contractor salaries, and intra-group settlements to the stablecoin rail. At least one major card network will settle 5-10% of its cross-border merchant payments via stablecoins by year-end. B2B payment platforms will increasingly integrate stablecoin options for international invoices.

Prediction markets will experience explosive growth during the US midterm elections, with Polymarket’s trading volume quadrupling compared to 2024. The industry will diverge: Polymarket and Kalshi will dominate cultural and political markets, while specialized DeFi platforms focus on leveraged financial products. 85% of copycat platforms will shut down due to an inability to gain users. The legal framework for sports betting and prediction markets will remain unclear until year-end, but user growth will still accelerate due to the market’s large size and attractiveness.

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Related: Grayscale Decryption 2026: Ten Trends Reshaping the Industry Ecosystem

Original author: Grayscale research team Original translation by Peggy, BlockBeats Editor’s Note: After years of high volatility and narrative-driven cycles, crypto assets are entering a distinctly different phase. Rising uncertainty in the fiat currency system, the gradual formation of regulatory frameworks, and the advancement of legislation and institutional allocation for spot ETPs and stablecoins are reshaping how funds enter the crypto market. Grayscale’s core assessment in its “2026 Digital Asset Outlook” is that the dominant force in the crypto market is shifting from retail cycles to institutional capital. Prices are no longer primarily driven by emotional, explosive price increases, but rather by compliant channels, long-term funds, and sustainable fundamentals, and the “four-year cycle” narrative is weakening. This article systematically outlines the top ten investment themes that may shape the market…