Macro Landscape
Has a Global Economic Recession Quietly Begun?
The author redefines recession from an “economic outcome” to a “strategic state.” It not only constrains growth and employment but also weakens a nation’s bargaining power, capital attractiveness, and external credibility, causing it to lose initiative in global competition. Precisely because of this, governments are resorting to fiscal, diplomatic, and even geopolitical tools to replace monetary instruments, essentially buying time for the growth slowdown and avoiding being forced to negotiate during a recession.
Under this framework, the market’s core focus is no longer the interest rate path itself, but rather “who can break free from constraints, and who remains trapped.”
This divergence is first reflected in foreign exchange and interest rate markets, and then further transmitted to asset prices and capital flows. When valuations continue to rise amid slowing growth, the underlying reason may not be improving fundamentals, but policy expectations that “a recession will not be allowed to happen.”
Sold Apple too early, but not buying now either.
Will not bottom-fish the U.S. stock market at this moment.
The most dangerous situation is when the person with the nuclear button is about to die or facing immense disgrace. In such a predicament, no one can predict what decision a person might make. Within the next hundred, maybe two hundred years, nuclear weapons will be used.
$700 Billion Poured into AI, Americans Taste the Bitter Fruit of Inflation First
The more AI investment, the higher the inflation, the further away rate cuts become, the higher the financing costs—yet investment continues to accelerate.
The arms race among tech giants cannot be stopped. A single data center consumes as much electricity as an entire state.
$700 billion is pouring into AI infrastructure. Whether this money is a cause of inflation or a prelude to a productivity revolution depends on a question no one can yet answer: Will the models running in these data centers actually make the economy more efficient?
It’s not that gold hit a new high; it’s that fiat currency is hitting a historic low.
The average age of first-time homebuyers in the U.S. has already been pushed back from 28 to 40.
We are facing a generational inflection point where money is separating from the state. Stablecoins are highly likely to take half of bank deposits within a decade. Bitcoin has already reached escape velocity.
Investment & Entrepreneurship
Interviewing 10 Dubai Workers: Some Were Asked to Sign a “Life-or-Death Waiver”
On a practical level, Dubai is already in the midst of a battlefield.
Some Web3 workers have fled, some are holding firm, and others have signed life-or-death waivers (company disclaimer) to return to Dubai, hoping to achieve high career returns amidst high risks.
The ‘Ebb Tide’ of the ve ٹوکن Model: Why Are Three Major Protocols Voluntarily Abandoning Their Former Trump Card?
The reason is not a theoretical error, but a failure in execution: low participation rates, captured governance rights, emissions flowing into unprofitable pools, and token prices plummeting despite growth in usage.
Meanwhile, Curve’s veCRV and Aerodrome’s ve(3,3) continue to develop healthily. However, this model only works where the emissions used for bootstrapping can create real economic demand for liquidity.
At the same time, other protocols are choosing revenue-supported buybacks, deflationary supply mechanisms, or liquid governance tokens as alternatives to the ve token model.
Tiger Research: Analysis of the Current State of Retail Investors in Nine Major Asian بازارs
Tiger Research covers the nine largest user markets in Asia, analyzing retail investor entry barriers and exchange coping strategies. Core findings: بازارs like South Korea, Japan, and Vietnam have structural differences in entry barriers, and exchange localization strategies are a key variable for success. Valuable reference for projects looking to expand into Southeast Asia.
Also recommended: “Odaily Interview with SharpLink: Ethereum’s ‘Productive Capitalist’“.
Web3 & AI
What Exactly Are AI Agents Doing? Complete Analysis of the Claude Code 500k Line Leak
The competitive moat for AI products may not lie in the model layer, but in the engineering layer.
For AI products, model inference costs might not be the most expensive layer; failed cache management is.
Chased AI ٹولs for a Year, Zero Output: Reflections from a Serial Entrepreneur
Don’t mistake “trying new tools” for “building something yourself.” When everyone can use the same models, the only moat is taste and depth, and taste can only be earned through real consequences and sustained focus.
Tiger Research: What AI Services Do Crypto Companies Offer?
Adoption motivations vary across different sub-sectors: exchanges aim to prevent user churn; security firms aim to fill audit blind spots; payment infrastructure targets the emerging agent economy.
The “FOMO” and competitive pressure in the AI field are accelerating its adoption far beyond actual demand. Both genuine need and competitive anxiety are at play.
Distinguishing between value-creating adoption and mere label-sticking adoption is the key issue.
Prediction Markets
Only 43% Return on $1, Why Are 87% of Polymarket Players Losing Money?
“Longshot bias” is one of the most expensive mistakes in prediction markets. Traders often systematically overestimate low-probability events, paying too high a price for seemingly cheap contracts.
Traders who consistently outperform prediction markets in the long run are not necessarily those with the “most accurate judgment,” but those who can adjust their judgment the fastest and most reasonably when new evidence emerges.
The Bayesian method essentially provides a scale for this “adjustment speed.”
Stop Betting on Gut Feeling: AI is ‘Picking Up Money’ on Polymarket
The article introduces a method to identify arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket and execute them systematically: use Perplexity to complete research, locate discrepancies between data and market pricing; use Claude to build trading logic, control risks, and automate execution; finally, complete the trade and realize profits on Polymarket.
For ordinary participants, a more realistic path is to first find certainty through research, then amplify returns with a system.
Also recommended: “Polymarket Smart Money Panorama: 26 Long-Term Trackable Addresses (Broken Down by Sector)“.
CeFi & DeFi
Stripe Ascends, PayPal Descends: The New King of Payments is Crowned
Stripe’s judgment is straightforward: when AI Agents start making purchasing decisions for humans, whoever controls the payment channels seizes the core lifeline of the AI economy first. Stripe’s forward-looking vision puts it ahead of the entire payments industry.
Meanwhile, PayPal stumbles. PayPal’s business model relies on “transaction fees from fund flows,” while the stablecoin business model relies on “earning treasury interest on deposited assets.” There is an inherent conflict between these two logics—every time PayPal promotes a PYUSD stablecoin payment, it is, to some extent, cannibalizing its own traditional fee revenue. This is a difficult problem to solve within PayPal’s existing business framework.
BTC is Dying, Why is HYPE Surging 20% Against the Trend?
The RWA trading market of Hyperliquid, empowered by HIP-3, provides new value support.
The overall market is in a downtrend, yet HYPE has shown remarkable stability. The important reason is undoubtedly Hyperliquid’s strong fundamentals, its focus on generating revenue, and its continuous use of profits to buy back HYPE.
HIP-3 (the perpetual contract market deployed by builders) has already revealed a clear pattern: when infrastructure is permissionless and already market-proven, liquidity tends to gravitate towards stronger teams, regardless of whether they receive additional ecosystem support.
The same logic will apply to HIP-4. HIP-4 focuses on “outcome trading,” which will introduce prediction markets and certain types of options to Hyperliquid—products that can provide non-linear payoff outcomes without liquidation risk.
No protocol in the past has been good enough to truly bring sustainable options trading into the کرپٹو world. Hyperliquid has done it, and its approach is different from every other platform. This platform has no investors, is free from external pressure, and Jeff can freely decide what the company wants to do. In this regard, Hyperliquid is a lot like Telegram—it doesn’t need to spend much on marketing; the key lies in the belief itself. If the product is good enough, people will come to use it eventually.
Hyperliquid has a chance to capture the entire کرپٹوcurrency options market.
Winners will build products truly oriented towards the real world, embedding cryptocurrency as an underlying implementation detail; losers will cling to the old narrative of “crypto for crypto’s sake” and expect the world to adapt to them.
ایئر ڈراپ Opportunities & Interaction Guides
Popular Interaction Collection | Abstract’s New Badge Task; Noise Beta Version Launched (April 2nd)
میم
The Gen Z Earning A7 Monthly, Trapped Between Three Screens
Odaily interviewed Meme P enthusiasts who are still achieving significant results in 2026, and former Meme diamond hands, to understand their money-making strategies and work-life balance.
بٹ کوائن
Losing $19k Per Mined Coin, Bitcoin Miners Collectively Defect to AI
The latest mining report from CoinShares shows that the weighted average cost for listed mining companies to mine one Bitcoin has risen to about $80,000, while BTC’s current price is $68k-$70k—a loss of $19k per coin mined.
The Bitcoin mining industry is undergoing its most fundamental transformation since inception. The clearest signal is not hash rate or difficulty adjustments, but balance sheets, and the way out is a full pivot to AI infrastructure.
When Bitcoin Miners Fly to Space
For currently operating Bitcoin mining companies, space mining doesn’t pose an immediate competitive threat in the short term. However, numerous startups continue to attempt it, indicating that the substantial cost reduction potential it represents still holds great attraction and imagination for the industry. This also reflects, from the side, that the entire industry is facing structural cost pressures.
The logic of space mining is an ultimate extrapolation of the above trend: if cheap electricity on the ground will eventually narrow due to demand competition, then go to where energy is most abundant—the cosmos.
سیکورٹی
Google’s Major Quantum Computing Breakthrough, The Crypto World Needs to ‘Change Locks’ Early
The Google Quantum AI research team, led by world-renowned quantum circuit expert Craig Gidney and others, has recently made two significant moves.
First, on March 25th, Google formally proposed its post-quantum cryptography (PQC) migration timeline, targeting 2029. Second, on March 31st, Google Quantum AI specifically released a research report for the cryptocurrency industry, stating directly that, based on the latest research, future quantum computers will require far fewer resources than previously believed to crack the elliptic curve cryptography protecting cryptocurrencies.
The industry’s past judgment on timing needs to be revised. Google has set its own migration target for 2029, and Google Quantum AI mentioned in the article that it is collaborating with institutions like Coinbase, the Stanford Blockchain Research Institute, and the Ethereum Foundation to responsibly advance according to the 2029 timeline.
For every crypto project, this signifies a new security watershed. Those who can acknowledge the problem earlier, promote upgrades, and complete the “lock change” will have a better chance of preserving their security boundaries in the next era.
Also recommended: “Odaily Interview with Yu Xian: How Does the Leak of Anthropic’s Nuclear-Level New Model Affect Crypto Security Offense and Defense?“.
Weekly Hot Topics Recap
Policy & Macro Markets
U.S. Congressional Office plans to release a stablecoin yield clause draft next week; industry preparing counter-proposal;
CFTC clarifies 5 major enforcement priorities: “Crackdown” on insider trading and market manipulation in prediction markets;
Opinions & Statements
ٹرمپ: Negotiations have made significant progress; Trump threatens to strike Iranian energy facilities, oil prices continue to rise, U.S
یہ مضمون انٹرنیٹ سے لیا گیا ہے: Weekly Editor’s Picks (0328-0403)
The following sections will present this week’s market forecast, operational strategy suggestions, and a review of last week’s trade executions to help readers navigate direction and make precise decisions in a complex market. Core Summary of the Trading Weekly Report: • HYPE Short-term Trading Performance: Completed one short-term long position (1x leverage) last week, successfully achieving a profit of approximately 4.41%. (Details in Part Two) • BTC Short-term Trading Performance: Completed one short-term short position (1x leverage) last week, successfully achieving a profit of approximately 5.37%. (Details in Part Four) • HYPE This Week’s Forecast and Operational Strategy: See Parts One and Two for details. • BTC Market Trend Forecast and Medium/Short-term Operational Strategies: See Parts Three and Four for details. • Core View Validation: Bitcoin remained in a bearish…
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