The Truth Behind “Tokens Are Dead”: Money Hasn’t Left, It Just Changed Lanes

اصل تالیف: ٹیک فلو

TechFlow Introduction: This DWF Ventures report makes one thing clear with data: money hasn’t left کرپٹو, it’s just changed tracks. In 2025, over 80% of tokens traded below their initial offering price, while crypto IPO fundraising surged 48x to $14.6 billion, and M&A reached a five-year high of $42.5 billion. This isn’t just a market sentiment issue; it’s a systemic migration of capital structure, with a wave of IPOs including Kraken, Ledger, and Animoca on the horizon for 2026.

Key Conclusions

The old playbook for token launches is over. High valuations and declining liquidity have dampened investor confidence, and we are seeing capital flows shifting towards equity.

ٹوکنs and equity offer similar upside potential but have vastly different risk profiles: tokens peak faster (within 30 days) and face greater volatility; equity tends to see steadier gains over a longer timeframe.

Equity commands a higher valuation premium than tokens: this premium can be attributed to institutional accessibility, potential for index inclusion, and the richer array of trading strategies supported by equity.

Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratios provide a useful benchmark for evaluating companies, but the dispersion in valuations reflects the importance of other factors, including regulatory moats, revenue diversification, shareholder value, and sector sentiment.

M&A activity hits a five-year high, accelerating consolidation: Acquiring capabilities is proving faster than building them, and regulatory compliance is driving strategic acquisitions.

The State of Token Launches

The crypto industry has reached an inflection point. Billions are flowing in, institutional interest is at a peak, and regulation is becoming more favorable—yet for builders and users, everything feels gloomier than ever. The widening gap between institutional inflows and crypto-native community morale is part of a larger issue—the original spirit of decentralization and cypherpunk experimentation seems to be fading as centralized entities flood in with immense influence.

Crypto has also thrived in a high-risk, casino-like environment, which is slowly being stripped away as token performance plummets. This is also driven by extractive events that significantly impact retail investors, leading to liquidity being pulled from the market.

According to a report by Memento Research, over 80% of tokens launched in 2025 are currently trading below their TGE price. Projects have been severely impacted by high volatility and a general lack of token demand—due to high valuations that are difficult to justify and sustain. Upside is also scarce, with most tokens facing immense selling pressure from TGE—stemming from early profit-taking, lack of substantive confidence in the product, or poor tokenomics (airdrops, CEX listings, etc.). This has dampened investor and retail interest, and events like 10/10 have further exacerbated crypto outflows, casting doubt on the industry’s core infrastructure.

The Rise of IPOs

Meanwhile, in traditional markets, IPOs are gaining strong traction among crypto companies—2025 saw many notable listings, with more companies filing for upcoming IPOs. Data shows crypto IPO fundraising grew 48x compared to 2024, raising over $14.6 billion in 2025. M&A deals have seen similar acceleration, with leading core companies seeking to diversify, as we explore further below. Overall, the strong performance of these companies demonstrates robust market demand for digital asset exposure, a momentum that may further accelerate into 2026.

Where Liquidity is Flowing

Over the past year, we’ve seen high-profile IPOs and ICOs both raise significant capital. The table below shows the fundraising amounts and initial valuations for each company.

From this, we observe that IPO and ICO valuations are relatively close. Some ICOs, like Plasma, were specifically priced below valuations offered to institutional investors, aiming to provide greater upside and participation opportunities for retail investors. On average, IPOs have a public float between 12% and 20%, while ICOs have a public circulation between 7% and 12%. World Liberty Finance is a clear outlier, offering over 35% of its total supply for sale.

Analyzing the performance of ICOs and IPOs, tokens are associated with greater short-term volatility and shorter time to peak (within 30 days). On the other hand, equities tend to record steady gains over a longer timeframe. It’s worth noting that despite this, their upside potential is similar.

CRCL and XPL are exceptions, experiencing massive gains from the start, offering investors 10x to 25x upside. Nonetheless, their performance followed the aforementioned trend—XPL retraced 65% from its peak within two weeks, while CRCL climbed steadily over the same period.

Revenue: Assessing the Equity Premium

Delving into revenue figures, stocks generally command a higher premium than tokens, with P/S ratios in the ranges of 7x to 40x and 2x to 16x, respectively. This can be attributed to enhanced liquidity from several factors:

Institutional Access: Despite growing positive sentiment for holding digital assets on balance sheets, this remains limited to funds with securities-only mandates (particularly pensions or endowments). Opting for an IPO allows companies to tap into this pool of institutional capital.

Index Inclusion: The tailwinds for growth in public markets are far stronger than on-chain. Coinbase joined the S&P 500 in May 2025 as the first crypto company, which may have contributed to buying pressure from index-tracking funds/ETFs accumulating positions.

Alternative Strategies: Compared to on-chain tokens, equities can run a much wider variety of institutional strategies, including options and leverage, whereas on-chain tokens often lack liquidity and counterparties.

Overall, P/S ratios show a company’s valuation based on trailing 12-month revenue, helping to gauge whether a company is undervalued or overvalued relative to its peers. However, factors beyond the numbers that reflect investor sentiment are not captured. Some considerations when evaluating stocks/tokens include:

Moats & Diversification: This is crucial in the fast-evolving digital asset industry. The market is paying a premium for licenses and regulatory compliance, while diversified business models strengthen the value proposition of the core business beyond pure revenue numbers.

For example, Figure launched its own RWA lending pool open to retail and institutional investors and became the first to receive SEC approval for a yield-bearing stablecoin ($YLDS). Bullish is a regulated exchange that also owns other businesses like CoinDesk, enhancing its value beyond pure trading services. These factors likely contribute to their higher premiums.

In contrast, eToro has an extremely low P/S, appearing “undervalued” on the surface, but deeper analysis reveals its revenue growth climbing in tandem with costs, which is suboptimal. Furthermore, the company is purely focused on providing trading services with little differentiation and low margins. This indicates that building defensible moats and diversifying business lines are also key considerations for investors.

Shareholder Value: Returning capital to investors via buybacks is common in both stocks and tokens, especially for high-revenue companies.

For example, Hyperliquid has one of the most aggressive buyback programs, with 97% of revenue used for repurchases. Since genesis, the aid fund has repurchased over 40.5 million HYPE tokens, representing over 4% of the total supply. Such aggressive buybacks impact price, boosting investor confidence as long as revenue remains stable and the sector has room for growth. This leads to a higher P/S ratio but doesn’t necessarily mean the token is “overvalued,” as strong support from the team itself is real.

Sector Sentiment: High-growth sectors driven by institutional or regulatory dynamics naturally command a premium as investors seek exposure.

For example, Circle’s stock price soared shortly after its June 2025 listing, with its P/S ratio peaking at around 27x. This may be attributed to the passage of the GENIUS Act—a framework dedicated to legitimizing stablecoin adoption and issuance, introduced shortly after Circle’s listing, which would make Circle a primary beneficiary as a leading player in stablecoin infrastructure.

M&A: The Great Consolidation

According to the report, crypto M&A activity hit a five-year high in 2025—driven by massive entry from TradFi institutions, coupled with more favorable regulatory sentiment. Following the Trump administration’s rollout of a series of crypto-friendly policies, the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) frenzy emerged, making holding digital assets on balance sheets less controversial. Companies also shifted focus to acquisitions as a more efficient way to obtain specific licenses for better compliance. Overall, the introduction of appropriate regulatory frameworks laid the groundwork for accelerated M&A.

Looking back over the past year, we see a clear rise in deal volume across categories. The following three categories have become priorities for institutions:

Investment & Trading: Encompassing trade settlement, tokenization, derivatives, lending, and DAT infrastructure;

Brokers & تبادلہs: Regulated platforms centered around digital assets;

Stablecoins & Payments: Covering on/off-ramps, infrastructure, and applications.

These three categories together accounted for over 96% of 2025 deal value, totaling over $42.5 billion.

Top acquirers include Coinbase, Kraken, and Ripple, all involved in multiple categories. Among them, Coinbase’s strategy is particularly notable, showcasing its ambition to become a “one-stop super app,” with a core focus on bringing on-chain to the masses through acquisitions of both traditional and innovative DApps. This is driven by intensifying competition among exchanges and the quest for all-in-one traffic portals.

Companies like FalconX and Moonpay have deepened their presence within their own categories, building comprehensive service capabilities through complementary acquisitions.

The Next Step for Token Launches

Despite the current market environment and sentiment, we believe 2026 will continue to bring significant tailwinds to the digital asset space. We expect more companies to go public, which is a net positive for the industry overall—it provides access to a larger pool of capital and investors, growing the pie for everyone.

The next wave of IPO candidates includes:

Kraken: Filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC in November 2025, with strong expectations for an IPO in early 2026;

Consensys: Reportedly working with Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan to prepare for a mid-2026 listing;

Ledger: Targeting a $4 billion valuation, working with Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and Barclays on its IPO;

Animoca: Plans to list on Nasdaq in 2026 via a reverse merger with Currenc Group Inc.;

Bithumb: Aims to list on Korea’s KOSDAQ in 2026 with a $1 billion valuation, underwritten by Samsung Securities.

The path forward is not a choice between TradFi validation and crypto-native innovation—it’s convergence. For builders and investors, this means prioritizing fundamentals and building useful products that generate real, sustainable revenue. A shift towards a long-term mindset may cause some turbulence, but those who adapt will capture the next wave of value creation.

Tokens are dead. Long live crypto.

یہ مضمون انٹرنیٹ سے لیا گیا ہے: The Truth Behind “Tokens Are Dead”: Money Hasn’t Left, It Just Changed Lanes

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