Crude Oil Soars 25%, Hyperliquid’s 100x Leverage Life-or-Death Game

“Friends shorting crude oil are completely fired up.”

When on-chain analyst Ai Yi posted this tweet on the morning of March 9, WTI crude oil touched $108 per barrel. The floating loss for the account at the top of Hyperliquid’s leaderboard was approaching $3.4 million, with the liquidation price set at $120.76.

As of writing, the WTI crude oil contract price has reached an intraday high of $119.5 and is currently trading at $114.5, representing a cumulative increase of over 25% from last Friday’s closing price.

Crude Oil Surges Over 40% in a Week Due to a Strait

The story begins with Iran’s Strait of Hormuz.

By March 9, the Strait of Hormuz had been almost completely blocked for the seventh consecutive day. The shutdown of this critical chokepoint, which handles about 20% of the global oil supply, triggered severe market shocks. By March 9, the price of WTI crude oil had skyrocketed within a single week, setting a rare volatility record in recent years, with a cumulative increase of over 40% compared to pre-conflict levels.

The shockwaves spread rapidly. The Nikkei index fell 5.4% in a single day, its largest drop since the tariff disputes; South Korea’s KOSPI plummeted 7%; Germany’s DAX fell over 3%. Bitcoin was not spared either, dropping below $66,000, with $120 million in کرپٹو market liquidations within an hour. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 12, pushing the market into the “Extreme Fear” zone.

But on Hyperliquid, another war is raging.

Three Stories of Shorting Crude Oil

In the on-chain circles, CBB (@Cbb0fe) is not an unfamiliar face. A few months ago, he publicly formed a team specifically to “hunt” another whale, @qwatio. This time, he himself became the prey.

https://x.com/lookonchain/status/2030817006107369727

According to Lookonchain monitoring, CBB shorted 127,175 xyz:CL (WTI crude oil mapping contracts) at an average price of $78.37, with a notional value of approximately $13.78 million. As oil prices soared, his floating loss reached $3.81 million, with a liquidation price hanging at $120.76.

There’s only a fraction of a dollar left before that number is reached. But no one knows when the situation in Iran will cool down.

The situation of another account, “2 frères 2 fauves,” is equally perilous. He entered a short position at $78.36 and currently holds 12,717 CL contracts with a notional value of about $13.37 million, making him the top holder of CL contracts on Hyperliquid. His floating loss is $3.4 million, with the same liquidation price of $120.76.

Even more dramatic is the experience of whale 0x8Af7. He shorted 72,179 CL contracts (approximately $7.8 million). As oil prices rose, his entire short position was forcibly liquidated, resulting in a loss exceeding $1.55 million.

However, within a few hours of the liquidation, he immediately reopened a position—a new short of 60,166 contracts with a notional value of $6.48 million.

Was it a misjudgment or an unchangeable gambling nature? Perhaps both. But this choice itself illustrates a certain ethos of on-chain high-leverage trading: liquidation is not the end, just the conclusion of the previous round.

There Are Also Winners: The Other Side of a Sky Co-founder

On the same Hyperliquid, during the same period, Sky (formerly MakerDAO) co-founder Rune Christensen was watching the storm from the other side with a smile.

On-chain analyst EmberCN disclosed that RuneKek (Rune’s on-chain account) went long on approximately $7.82 million worth of crude oil contracts, with an entry cost around $93. As of today, with oil prices touching $109, his floating profit has exceeded $1.36 million.

More noteworthy is his portfolio strategy: while going long on crude oil, he also shorted some ETH and XYZ100 (a US stock index mapping contract). This makes his strategy resemble a hedge logic targeting geopolitical conflict—crude oil benefits from war premiums, while stocks and کرپٹوcurrencies are pressured by risk aversion sentiment. By positioning on both sides, he hedges the risk of a one-sided bet.

Rune Christensen, a DeFi protocol founder, constructed a macro hedge portfolio using on-chain perpetual contracts. This fact itself is more noteworthy than how much money he made.

On-Chain Commodities: New ٹولs, Old Lessons

This round of crude oil price action has brought a previously inconspicuous topic to the forefront: on-chain commodity trading.

The crude oil contract on Hyperliquid was launched by the Felix protocol (the HIP-3 market deployer on Hyperliquid) on January 9, 2026, roughly two months ago. The initial parameters were a maximum of 5x leverage and an open interest cap of $2.5 million, representing a small-scale early launch. Trading volume truly exploded only after Iran blocked the strait.

Platforms like Phantom have also successively launched perpetual contracts for traditional commodities like crude oil and gold. In theory, anyone with just a wallet can trade crude oil futures like trading Bitcoin, without needing to open a traditional futures account or a broker.

This is genuine financial democratization. But the other side of the coin is equally real.

Traditional commodity futures markets have strict margin systems, circuit breakers, position limits, and are backed by risk control teams from brokers constantly monitoring the markets. The rules for on-chain perpetual contracts are much simpler: when the position value falls to the liquidation line, the system automatically liquidates—no phone calls, no manual intervention.

The liquidation prices for CBB, 2 frères 2 fauves, and others are all clustered around $120.76—this number isn’t random; it’s the “safety margin” calculated when they initially built their positions. Under normal oil price fluctuations, with over $50 of room from their entry price of $78, it seemed quite ample.

But what they didn’t anticipate was that a geopolitical crisis could push crude oil prices up 50% within 72 hours.

This isn’t a strategy error; it’s a black swan event. The problem is, on-chain, there’s no mechanism to give you a breather when the black swan lands.

When DeFi Meets Hormuz

The connection between the crypto market and traditional geopolitics is unfolding faster than anyone anticipated.

Hyperliquid users now need to keep an eye on the latest developments in Iran’s Strait of Hormuz; while DeFi OGs are using on-chain derivatives to hedge war risks.

As the variety of on-chain commodities and on-chain US stock mapping contracts continues to expand, on-chain players will only be increasingly exposed to macro risks. In the traditional financial world, this is called “global macro strategy,” requiring professional teams and robust risk control systems. On-chain, it’s called “one person’s position.”

یہ مضمون انٹرنیٹ سے لیا گیا ہے: Crude Oil Soars 25%, Hyperliquid’s 100x Leverage Life-or-Death Game

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