The Richest Fed Chair in History, Blocked by an Absurd Political Farce

Introduction: Kevin Warsh, with a net worth exceeding $200 million and an investor in Polymarket, is 30 days and one crucial vote away from steering the Federal Reserve.

Next Monday, April 21st, 10 AM, Washington D.C.

Kevin Warsh will sit in the hearing seat of the Senate Banking Committee, facing questioning. If all goes smoothly, he will become the first Fed Chair in history to have publicly invested in Polymarket, Solana, and a Bitcoin Lightning Network startup.

But nothing will go smoothly.

Because in this hearing room, one of the 13 Republican committee members has already publicly declared: no matter what Warsh says, he will vote against him. This person is Thom Tillis, the Republican Senator from North Carolina.

His reason for opposition has nothing to do with Warsh himself. He opposes because the Justice Department is still investigating the current Fed Chair, Jerome Powell.

The cause of this investigation is the renovation cost of a building.

The $2.5 Billion Renovation Case: A Precision Strike Against Fed Independence

The story begins in 2025.

The renovation budget for the Federal Reserve headquarters building severely overran, ultimately costing approximately $2.5 billion. Powell had testified before the Senate Banking Committee on this matter. Washington D.C. federal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro subsequently initiated a criminal investigation, issuing a grand jury subpoena to the Fed, on the grounds that Powell may have made misleading statements during his congressional testimony.

Powell’s reaction was unusually fierce. He publicly stated that the true purpose of this investigation was not the cost overrun, but rather Trump’s retaliation against him for refusing to cut interest rates faster.

Tillis sided with Powell. This Republican senator, who is set to retire in 2027 and faces no pressure for re-election, made a resounding statement: “There is no room for negotiation when it comes to protecting the Federal Reserve’s independence from political interference or legal intimidation.”

His stance is clear: he will not vote to approve any Fed nominee, including Warsh, until the Justice Department concludes its investigation into Powell.

Republicans hold only a slim 13-to-11 seat advantage on the Senate Banking Committee. Losing Tillis’s vote, coupled with near-certain unanimous opposition from Democrats, means Warsh’s nomination cannot pass at the committee level.

On the other end of the investigation, prosecutor Pirro shows no sign of backing down. Federal Judge James Boasberg has already dismissed her subpoena, bluntly stating in his ruling that “the government has not submitted any evidence of fraud,” and that the primary purpose of the investigation appears to be to pressure Powell. Pirro announced she will appeal and publicly dismissed Tillis’s obstruction as “white noise.”

“I don’t know, and I don’t care. I’m proceeding through legal channels; I don’t care what they say.”

A three-way stalemate. Warsh is caught in the middle.

After May 15th, Who Sits in the Fed Chair’s Seat?

Powell’s term as Chair expires on May 15th. This is a hard deadline.

However, his term as a Fed Governor does not end until January 2028. This means that even after his Chair term ends, he legally remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Powell has made it clear: if Warsh is not confirmed by May 15th, he will continue to steer the Fed as “Acting Chair.” New York Fed President John Williams publicly supported this stance, stating the Federal Open Рынок Committee (FOMC) could “operate as usual” without a separate vote.

This creates an unprecedented situation: Trump has nominated a new Chair, but the old Chair refuses to leave, with both sides simultaneously claiming the right to sit in that seat.

The White House clearly does not want this scenario. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters last week: “We want Warsh in place as soon as possible.” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett was more optimistic, saying he was “highly confident” Warsh would be in place before Powell’s term ends. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott predicted that “the Justice Department will conclude its investigation in the coming weeks, and Tillis will ultimately vote yes.”

But these are hopes, not facts. The facts are: from the April 21st hearing to May 15th, there are only 24 days. Within these 24 days, three steps must be completed: the hearing, committee vote, and full Senate vote. Under normal circumstances, this process takes weeks to months.

And Tillis’s words to CNN today leave no room for ambiguity: “I won’t spend five minutes asking Warsh about his qualifications, because he is qualified. I will spend five minutes talking about that bogus investigation, and until it’s over, I will vote no.”

$192 Million in a 69-Page Document: The Wealth Portfolio of the Next Fed Chair

As the political battle intensifies, Warsh submitted a 69-page OGE 278e financial disclosure form on April 14th. This document is not only a prerequisite for the confirmation process but also a mirror reflecting who this potential next Fed Chair really is.

First, the scale. Assets in Warsh’s personal name range from approximately $131 million to $209 million. His wife, Jane Lauder (a member of the Estée Lauder founding family, with an estimated net worth of around $1.9 billion according to Forbes), holds several hundred million dollars in additional assets. If confirmed, he would become the wealthiest Fed Chair in history, far surpassing Powell (assets estimated between $19.7 million and $75 million), previously considered the “richest Fed Chair.” Core holdings include two investments in Juggernaut Fund LP, each exceeding $50 million, related to the Duquesne family office of legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller. Warsh received $10.2 million in consulting fees from Duquesne, $1.55 million from GoldenTree Asset Management, $750,000 from Cerberus Capital, and $750,000 from Brevan Howard—all institutions with deep involvement in криптовалюта and macro trading.

Then comes the more intriguing part: through DCM Investments 10 LLC and the AVF series of funds, Warsh holds equity in a string of crypto and blockchain companies. These include the Ethereum L2 network Blast, the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, the Bitcoin Lightning Network payments company Flashnet, the Ethereum development platform Tenderly, the DeFi investment platform SkyLink, the blockchain social networks Arena and DeSo, and the crypto-focused investment firm Polychain. He has also previously invested in Bitwise, which manages a spot Bitcoin ETF.

Under OGE rules, these positions without specified amounts mean each is valued at less than $1,000. The scale is minuscule. But the signal is extremely strong.

This is not someone who passively bought some spot Bitcoin ETF in a brokerage account. His holdings actively traverse the entire crypto ecosystem, from L1 to L2, from DeFi to prediction markets, from payment infrastructure to developer tools, systematically positioning in over a dozen cutting-edge projects. Every sector he has touched is precisely the area most directly impacted by the Fed’s regulatory and monetary policy decisions.

Warsh has pledged to divest all assets that could pose conflicts of interest upon confirmation. OGE certifying official Heather Jones confirmed that after completing the divestments, he will comply with the requirements of the Ethics in Government Act.

But the question is not whether he will sell these positions. The question is: What does it mean for someone with such a deep understanding of crypto infrastructure to sit in the Fed Chair’s seat?

Two Paths, Two Worlds

The market now faces a classic binary game.

Path A: Pirro withdraws the investigation, Tillis switches to a yes vote, Warsh assumes office in mid-May.

This is the scenario the White House is betting on. Scott Bessent publicly said, “Let’s wait for the new Chair Warsh to lead the next rate-cutting cycle,” implying that Warsh might quickly push for rate cuts upon taking office. While Warsh himself has historically been a hawk (he warned of inflation risks even during the 2008 financial crisis recession), recent signals show he leans towards supporting rate cuts. For the crypto market, a Fed Chair who simultaneously understands the crypto ecosystem and favors easing liquidity is the most favorable combination one could imagine.

Path B: Pirro insists on appealing, Tillis does not relent, Powell continues to lead as Acting Chair.

This is a scenario full of uncertainty. Powell has clearly stated he will not leave the Fed Board before the investigation concludes. If he continues to chair FOMC meetings and set interest rate policy in an acting capacity, Trump will face a Fed Chair who is “nominally retired but effectively still in power.” This constitutional-level debate about Fed independence could be decided in the Supreme Court, which has yet to rule on whether Trump has the authority to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

For the market, Path B means persistent uncertainty. The direction of monetary policy will depend on the outcome of a legal tug-of-war, and no one can predict the timeline of that legal battle.

What Does This Have to Do with Bitcoin? Everything.

On the surface, this is a Washington palace intrigue drama about Fed personnel. But for those in the crypto market, every variable points directly to asset prices.

Interest Rate Path. Warsh taking office implies a rise in rate cut expectations. Bessent is already publicly calling for “letting Warsh lead the next cycle.” Rate cuts are a definitive positive for risk assets. If Powell continues as Acting Chair, he is highly likely to maintain a “pause” stance given inflation risks from the US-Iran war, potentially delaying cuts until the second half of the year or later.

Regulatory Signals. The impact of a Fed Chair who has invested in Polymarket, Tenderly, and Polychain versus a Jerome Powell who once publicly said, “If I were the government, I would shut down cryptocurrency,” on the crypto regulatory environment is worlds apart. Warsh has called Bitcoin “the good cop of policy,” believing Bitcoin’s price can tell policymakers when they are doing right and when they are doing wrong. This cognitive framework suggests he is unlikely to support hostile regulation of the crypto industry.

Stablecoin Legislation. Warsh’s confirmation timeline highly overlaps with the stablecoin legislative window currently advancing in Congress. A crypto-friendly Fed Chair could significantly accelerate this process.

At next Monday’s hearing, Tillis will likely spend his five-minute questioning time not asking Warsh a single question about monetary policy, but instead using all of it to blast Pirro’s investigation. This scene itself will become a headline for global financial media.

The real suspense is not at the hearing. It lies in: Will Pirro withdraw the investigation before May 15th? What is Tillis’s bottom line? If neither gives in, will Trump directly intervene with the Justice Department?

There are 30 days left until Powell’s term ends. Who sits in the Fed Chair’s seat 30 days from now will redefine the rules of the game for the global capital markets in the second half of 2026.

For the crypto market, the weight of these 30 days may be heavier than that of any FOMC meeting.

Эта статья взята из интернета: The Richest Fed Chair in History, Blocked by an Absurd Political Farce

Related: Shift in Market Sentiment: On the Eve of the FOMC Meeting, Discussions of Rate Hikes Emerge

Although the Federal Reserve itself appeared restrained at its final meeting last year, hinting at only a symbolic interest rate cut for the entire year, Wall Street clearly has its own analytical framework. Established institutions like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America almost unanimously offered a more “aggressive” forecast: at least two rate cuts. Citigroup and some Chinese securities firms were even more hawkish, betting on three cuts. Beyond economic data, analysts’ consensus was also driven by political considerations: the US mid-term elections in November. For those in power, votes are lifeblood, and to secure votes, the economy needs to heat up. Interest rates are the most direct thermostat, but monetary policy takes time to take effect. Doing the math, if the Trump administration wants to see results…