Bitcoin Tidak Akan Jatuh Di Bawah $60,000 Lagi: PlanB

Bitcoin kembali mencuri perhatian dengan melonjak ke level tertinggi baru sepanjang masa di $73,760 pada 14 Maret 2024.

This figure marks a significant milestone in BTC’s journey, especially as it approaches the much-anticipated halving. PlanB, a prominent figure within the crypto community, shared insights into this phenomenon, providing a prediction about Bitcoin’s future valuation.

$200,000 Adalah Target Konservatif untuk Bitcoin

At the heart of PlanB’s Bitcoin price prediction is the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. It anticipates significant price movements in conjunction with halving events by comparing the current supply of Bitcoin against the flow of new BTC entering the market. These are periods when the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is halved, thus reducing the supply of new coins.

According to PlanB, BTC’s alignment with the S2F model’s projections, especially before a Bitcoin halving, is a critical indicator of its future performance. The transition from “blue to red” dots in PlanB’s model marks the shift into new phases of the market cycle, with red indicating a bull market.

Pergeseran ini diperkirakan akan terus berlanjut berdasarkan pola historis, sinyal pertumbuhan, dan momentum bullish yang berkelanjutan.

PlanB menunjukkan bahwa meskipun pasar akan menghadapi volatilitas, dengan potensi penurunan sebesar 20-30%, secara keseluruhan trennya masih mengarah ke atas.

“We will have a steep increase in price from here, [potentially] $100,000 this year. [But] note that this model jumps in April to roughly $500,000, which is the average price level in this halving period. It [may] take a couple of months or almost a year to reach that level, so the next top will not be this year, but in next year, 2025,” PlanB explained.

Regarding the next market top, some anticipate Bitcoin reaching $200,000. However, according to PlanB, such a figure might actually fall short of expectations. From an S2F perspective, he is looking at a target significantly above the average, possibly exceeding $500,000, to align with the model’s projections.

Baca selengkapnya: Prediksi Harga Bitcoin 2024/2025/2030

Faktor utama yang mendukung prospek optimis ini adalah perilaku indikator on-chain, seperti harga realisasi dan harga realisasi dua tahun, yang menunjukkan pertumbuhan luar biasa selama pasar bullish. Harga realisasi lima bulan, khususnya, menetapkan level support baru yang kuat di $60,000.

“The five-month realized price, that’s the short-term holder price, is at $60,000 right now. That would be the aggressive floor because if we look at previous bull markets then you see Bitcoin price doesn’t go below [the five-month realized price]. So that’s my personal aggressive floor that I think we will not go below again,” PlanB added.

Lebih lanjut, indikator kekuatan relatif (RSI) menyajikan narasi yang menarik. Saat ini, pada level tertinggi sebelum halving, RSI menunjukkan bahwa Bitcoin memasuki fase ini dengan kekuatan yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya. Penyimpangan dari pola keuntungan yang semakin berkurang pada siklus sebelumnya dapat mengindikasikan adanya pergeseran ke arah pertumbuhan eksponensial.

Singkatnya, Bitcoin berada pada momen penting, didukung oleh serangkaian indikator yang menunjukkan pertumbuhannya masih jauh dari selesai.