When Uncertainty Becomes the Norm: An Ordinary Person’s “Anti-Cycle” Survival Manual

Original Author: @hooeem

Original Compilation: Peggy, BlockBeats

Editor’s Note: Against a backdrop of accelerating AI, geopolitical conflicts, and a high-interest-rate cycle, market discussions are shifting from “how long can growth last” to a more fundamental question: what happens when a debt-based system encounters a deflationary technological shock?

This article starts from a series of ongoing macro signals—such as rising sovereign debt pressure, energy price volatility, declining consumer confidence, and changes in employment structure—to outline a more tense scenario. On one hand, AI brings unprecedented productivity gains; on the other, this “efficiency dividend” could translate into demand contraction and default risks within a highly leveraged system, potentially amplifying systemic fragility. Simultaneously, the evolutionary paths of numerous historical asset bubbles provide a reference point for the current frenzy in AI valuations.

Within this framework, the article refocuses on the individual: when structural uncertainty becomes the norm, how should one build “counter-cyclical resilience” at the financial, professional, and cognitive levels. From cash flow defense and skill stacking to long-term asset allocation, the core is not about predicting turning points, but about enhancing survival and decision-making capabilities in an uncertain environment.

The following is the original text:

We are walking step by step into a full-blown financial crisis. It will either make you or break you.

And that depends on two things: Do you choose to ignore it, or prepare for it in advance?

First, a few disclaimers:

1. I’m not a pessimist. But some of what I’ll mention next might sound like doom-mongering. However, that’s just reality itself; I’m actually looking at all this with a relatively optimistic attitude.

2. Am I an expert? Of course not. But I put my own money where my mouth is—both in market decisions and life choices.

I’m also aware that in the short term, markets might see a relief rally, even a surge (some might quote this to mock me). But I’m not talking about this week’s action; I’m talking about longer-term trends. Because I do spend time doing deep research, trying to understand what’s happening. And right now, a lot is happening, and it’s not just the war in Iran.

But we can start with that.

Oil, Energy, and That ‘Invisible Tax’

War in the Middle East, critical infrastructure being hit, threats of further hits, escalation while pretending to ‘de-escalate,’ plus the strait issue—these factors will obviously push oil prices higher. And higher energy costs are essentially an ‘invisible tax’ that eventually works its way through the entire supply chain, raising the cost of living across the board for ordinary people.

What happens next? Interest rates go up, people’s finances get squeezed, more and more can’t afford their mortgages, fail affordability checks for refinancing, and are forced onto variable rates. Rates that are likely double what they were paying in the low-rate era (like the 1% fixed rate they locked in last December).

Yeah, it’s not pretty. In that environment, consumer spending gets squeezed, and eventually, it chokes.

Post content: The situation in the UK right now can be described as ‘utterly screwed.’ The 10-year borrowing cost has just broken out significantly higher. Chart-wise, it’s a classic ‘bullish for rates’ move, but it comes with a host of potential nasty consequences. UK debt-to-GDP is now far higher than 2008 (now around 95%), and both the government itself and the nation’s finances are in a pretty dire state. Crucially, the government’s borrowing costs are now far higher than the levels assumed in the budget less than a month ago. That Spring Budget was predicated on rates falling back towards 4%. Now, the government faces a choice between two bad options: either restart austerity (Austerity 2.0) or borrow even more to pay the interest on old debt—i.e., fall into a ‘debt trap.’ The result: less money for infrastructure and public services, people stuck on high mortgage rates for longer (the 10-year rate is a key warning signal here), disposable income falling further as mortgage and rent pressures rise, and business borrowing costs staying high… The overall picture has deteriorated across the board. You can blame this crisis on Trump’s policy triggers, but the more realistic take is: it’s the result of decades of central government mismanagement.

Oh, and right now, the US is doing everything it can to suppress this…

The core of this content is: The US is using financial means to ‘intervene’ in the crude oil market structure. Specifically, by shorting short-term crude contracts to suppress price increases (avoiding a break above $100) while buying long-term futures to hedge, thereby ‘flattening the futures curve.’ This operation can indeed stabilize oil prices in the short term, but it also raises long-term oil price expectations. Simultaneously, the US is also releasing Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) and, through long-short contract arbitrage and ‘swap’ agreements, manages to release oil now while securing more reserves in the future (releasing 1 barrel now to get back about 1.2 barrels later). Overall, this is a strategy of ‘controlling prices in the short term while shifting pressure to the long term’—stability today may mean higher oil prices in the future.

Sovereign Debt Death Spiral

US national debt just surpassed $39 trillion. That number alone is sobering enough.

Meanwhile, the government brings in about $5.4 trillion annually but spends nearly $7 trillion. Roughly 120% of revenue is eaten up by boomer entitlements, interest on historical debt, and defense spending.

You can see all this in real-time on @USDebtClock_org.

It only gets worse from here. If the government cuts spending, GDP contracts, which makes the ‘deficit-to-GDP ratio’ look even worse. It’s a trap with no clean exit.

So, what have governments historically done when debt becomes mathematically unpayable? Either ‘print money’ (create currency out of thin air) or start a war to distract, sometimes both.

Across the pond, your old friend the UK is already slipping into a ‘vicious cycle’: public sector wage rises above inflation, forcing the government to raise taxes; higher taxes suppress growth; weak growth requires more ‘money printing.’ Rinse and repeat. Meanwhile, UK 30-year gilt yields have risen to their highest since 2008, with the bond market effectively questioning the UK government’s creditworthiness.

Globally, the narrowing spread between US 10-year Treasuries and Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), coupled with a weakening yen, is a textbook ‘sovereign debt death spiral’ warning signal.

AI Deflation / Bubble Threat

AI represents the fastest technological acceleration in human history. Massive productivity gains are coming. That sounds great until you realize the problem.

We live in a debt-based economic system. In a highly leveraged economy, massive ‘deflationary productivity gains’ don’t lead to prosperity; they can blow the whole system up. The white-collar class is loaded with mortgages, car loans, and non-dischargeable student debt. AI doesn’t need to replace all jobs to trigger a crisis; even a small percentage of job losses can set off a chain reaction, eventually turning into systemic defaults at the banking level.

Read that again. “What if AI itself is a bubble?” The flip side is: AI could also be a bubble, and bubbles never pop gently.

History has shown similar paths:

1929: People borrowed to the max to buy stocks and durable goods, banks lent out every penny; when the music stopped, there was no cushion.

2000: Any company with ‘.com’ in its name got billions thrown at it—no revenue, no plan, didn’t matter, until the funding dried up.

2008: Banks gave mortgages to the unemployed, rating agencies slapped ‘AAA’ on toxic assets like handing out gold stars in kindergarten, and 20 million jobs globally were wiped out.

And today? Some analysts looking at AI company valuations are starting to feel the same unease. The whole system essentially runs on a credit bubble.

Austrian school economists have warned about this for decades: either pop the bubble voluntarily (at the cost of a severe recession) or destroy the currency itself (leading to hyperinflation).

You get to pick your poison.

Early Warning Signals

These aren’t predictions; they’re signals happening right now: Consumer confidence is at historic lows; the consumption engine is sputtering.

Anomalies in the Treasury market look more like signs of ‘capital flight’ typically seen in emerging markets.

‘Survival signals’ in daily life are becoming more obvious: people using Klarna to buy fast food and groceries; military recruitment surging; graduate school enrollment skyrocketing (translation: can’t find a job).

Pressure is also showing at the corporate level: tech companies are replacing domestic workers with overseas labor or directly with AI.

Don’t believe it?

Data shows that over the past 6 months, 60% of people have reduced food intake or meal sizes; 53% rely on credit, installments, or high-interest loans to buy food; 40.5% have delayed paying bills to afford food. Overall, it points to a conclusion: many are already ‘barely getting by,’ living on the edge of collapse, and one-off subsidy policies cannot fundamentally solve the problem.

In 2025, US Army recruitment hit a record high and completed its annual target 4 months early. In a macro context, this is often interpreted as: when economic opportunities shrink and the job market tightens, more people choose the military as a stable path.

The core of this content is: The US economy is showing contradictory signals of ‘data versus lived experience.’ On one hand, consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest level since 2014; on the other, GDP growth has exceeded expectations. Behind this ‘economic paradox’ lies a decoupling of growth from employment and persistent anxiety from high prices—meaning macro data looks okay, but the actual experience of ordinary people is worsening.

Alright, enough evidence. So what do we do? Sit there complaining about fate, sighing? Of course not.

What we do is first acknowledge its existence, then prepare for it, and survive.

How to Respond (Action Plan)

Treat the following as an actionable checklist.

We face it with a ‘glass half full’ mindset. Take action with a pragmatic, roll-up-your-sleeves attitude, while also believing things will eventually get better. This isn’t the apocalypse. Precisely because we know this, we can take risks when it’s time to do so.

Immediate Financial Defense

Build an emergency fund covering 3 to 6 months of ‘minimum living expenses.’ This is priority number one, after minimum debt payments. If you have no savings right now, immediately save your first $1,000.

This is not optional. Don’t borrow for consumption. If a large necessary expense is unavoidable, try to lock in a fixed rate now. Variable rates will kill you in a downturn.

Pay down credit card debt aggressively. Variable rates typically rise in a downturn. Be proactive; if needed, call the bank to negotiate a lower rate—asking costs nothing, and data shows about 70% of people succeed. Or consider transferring to a 0% APR balance transfer card, but make sure you can pay it off before the rate resets.

Don’t co-sign for anyone. Nearly 40% of co-signers end up paying the debt. If you want to help someone, give cash or offer a personal loan. Either way, protect your credit score. This sounds basic, but it’s crucial.

Career & Income Protection

Hate your boss? Understandable. But without a backup plan, in an environment where hiring is at a low and jobs are being replaced, quitting impulsively just because ‘the boss sucks’—good luck.

Continuously upskill, especially learning to leverage AI. Of course, other directions work too. YouTube, Udemy, Khan Academy, coding bootcamps—mostly free or low-cost. Learn to code, learn SEO, stack skills that make you harder to replace or enable you to start a side hustle.

Start a side hustle. Freelancing, online services, handmade products—anything. On average, a side hustle can bring in about $500 per month, and that money builds a safety net while you sleep.

Investment & Wealth Strategy

Ignore media-driven panic. Economists predict a recession almost every year, and ‘doomscrolling’ will only lead you to make emotional decisions that wreck your portfolio.

In the long run, the S&P 500 goes up—it represents America’s top 500 companies, after all. If you’re prepared, this phase can be a good time to add risk assets. I will do this, while also allocating to Bitcoin as much as possible when appropriate, and dollar-cost averaging and building positions in batches before that.

Pasars always recover eventually. If you miss the 10 best days in the market, you miss most of the gains. So, when the market is already down 25%–35% (using the S&P as an example) and people are telling you it will get worse, that might be the time you should take on risk.

Trust time. A Schroders study covering 148 years of data shows: investing for 1 month has about a 40% chance of loss; for 1 year, it drops to 30%; for 20 years, it’s almost zero.

Think in longer timeframes. Maybe you don’t have to wait 20 years, but at least think in terms of cycles. Or, you can be a ‘cockroach.’

Do you know who this is?

Well, this guy was one of the richest people in human history. When he died in 1525, he controlled almost 2% of Europe’s GDP… And how did he do it? Simply put, by ‘surviving like a cockroach.’

Today, ‘being a cockroach’ probably means: cash + commodities + stocks, balanced allocation.

Such a portfolio can allow your assets to compound across different cycles. However, this is more suitable for those with larger capital; it might not make you rich quickly, but it can keep you steady.

If you have cash, I personally would still consider allocating some to the riskier end of the curve, like adding to Bitcoin when it’s down around 70%. Of course, this is just my view, not advice.

Remember: When everyone is panic-selling, those willing to take on risk have the chance to earn massive wealth returns.

Next is an often-overlooked but very important investment direction—

Personal Preparation

1) Invest in Your Health

Make yourself ‘harder to knock down.’ Start investing time and effort now to improve your physical condition, aiming for the best fitness level of your life.

An illness, surgery, or temporary inability to work can directly destroy your finances. Therefore, this is the ‘highest-return’ investment you can make.

2) Asset & Tax Planning

Do your tax planning, maximizing the use of tax-free accounts and pension allowances. Complete estate and inheritance arrangements before the tax year ends, especially with potential policy changes (like abolishing the 7-year tax-free rule or imposing capital gains tax on inheritances). Seek professional help if necessary.

3) Invest in Your Cognition & Knowledge

Don’t be mocked for paying attention to things ‘outside your field.’ Maybe the algorithm won’t reward you immediately, but those who remain genuinely curious and keep learning will ultimately benefit. Keep creating, keep learning; your capabilities and influence will gradually accumulate, and the algorithm will ‘see you’ eventually.

The 2008 financial crisis destroyed millions of jobs, but it also

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