Matrixport Research: Why Is the Altcoin Bull Market Absent? Supply Pressure and Token Unlocks Emerge as Key Variables

Sustained Supply Pressure: Altcoin Upside Momentum Remains Constrained

Since October 2025, although Bitcoin has experienced periodic pullbacks, its market dominance has not declined significantly and has recently trended higher again. This market movement appears more like a Bitcoin-led rally, with altcoins following intermittently. Meanwhile, an increasing number of companies adopting treasury allocation strategies continue to accumulate Bitcoin, maintaining its structural demand.

In contrast, altcoins face more pronounced supply pressure. Continuous selling by early investors, coupled with new circulating supply from token unlocks, frequently caps price rebounds with selling pressure. Since August 2024, approximately $99 billion worth of tokens have been unlocked and entered circulation, creating a persistent supply shock for the market.

As retail enthusiasm cools, the impact of supply-side factors has gradually become a key variable dominating price trends. This also explains why, in the bull market from 2024 to 2025, altcoins not only underperformed Bitcoin but also failed to reach their previous cycle highs in terms of total market capitalization.

Unlock Windows and बाज़ार Structure: Periodic Rebound Opportunities May Still Arise

Historical experience shows that large-scale token unlocks often improve market liquidity in the short term and boost trading activity. In many cases, altcoins experience periodic rebounds around unlock windows. This is driven by both increased absorption capacity due to higher trading volume and capital reallocation within the sector.

Next week is expected to see approximately $4.7 billion in token unlocks, making it the third-largest unlock week since August 2024. Historical data indicates that during similar-scale unlock windows, the क्रिप्टो market often rallies in the weeks leading up to the unlock, with total market capitalization peaking shortly after the unlock event.

However, the current rebound appears to have started only about a week in advance, suggesting its influence may be weaker than in previous instances. This round’s unlock volume is concentrated in a few protocols, with the vast majority coming from the WhiteBIT Coin (WBT), the platform token of the European crypto exchange WhiteBIT. Although the token’s Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) is around $16.6 billion, its average daily trading volume is only about $74 million. This implies that relatively limited trading activity could still have a disproportionate impact on price volatility.

Synthesizing historical experience, a practical market indicator is the deviation of the total altcoin market capitalization from its 90-day moving average. When the total market cap exceeds the 90-day moving average by more than 50%, the market typically enters a period of overheating. Conversely, when it falls below the 90-day moving average by about 30%, tactical rebounds are more likely. Current market structure suggests that selling pressure on altcoins may be gradually approaching an overextended zone.

Overall, the altcoin market is at a critical juncture. Structurally, the sector still faces dual pressures: on one hand, overall retail demand remains weak; on the other, token unlocks and early investor selling continue to suppress the supply side. This structural characteristic has significantly weakened the traditional transmission path of “Bitcoin’s rise driving a catch-up rally in altcoins” during this cycle.

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Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be highly risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.

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