Crypto Secondary 市場 Fund MVC May Market Observations
2/ From a factual standpoint, as we analyzed regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the deep-seated balance sheet ailments of the United States have already surpassed the scope of what a single Fed chair can address. All assumptions associated with Warsh can only hold true when AI fundamentally transforms social production relations. Until that day arrives, the majority of the world’s nations that are not AI leaders (virtually all except the US and China) will be the first to experience fiscal and monetary policy collapse. By that point, who occupies the Fed chair might no longer be a relevant question.
3/ From a trading perspective, 加密貨幣 assets currently see no clear catalyst in any of the aforementioned narratives. We also observe that the 200-day moving average continues to exert strong resistance on asset price trajectories. Even if the “anything but AI” trade broadens to “anything but mines,” it will struggle to change this dynamic. In this current phase of silicon versus carbon, there is no stage for crypto, but rest assured, one will certainly emerge in the future.
Overall Market Review and Commentary on Market Trends
Beyond Hype, there is little worth commenting on in the crypto market. The lack of volume and innovation is a tired refrain, and the technical resistance remains quite evident. In fact, crypto assets might be a good tool for hedging global liquidity risks. Currently, all market attention is difficult to directly link to crypto, while inflation/stagflation caused by supply chain damage clearly has more established large-cap instruments for capital absorption, such as gold and other metals, petrochemicals, and grains. From a positioning perspective, Bitcoin also needs more time for consolidation and clearing. The gestation of this variable is critically important, and we expect this period of consolidation to last at least until Q4 2026.
Looking ahead, we believe three things will increasingly dominate future market volatility:
① In the short term, the market will closely watch whether Warsh repeats the mistakes of Bessent and Musk, turning his own stance into the next “333” plan;
② The actual severity of widespread supply chain damage and the time required for future repair are clearly underestimated by the market. In the medium term, the market will eventually realize that the scarcity of local resources and price volatility far exceed initial expectations, much like during the pandemic years;
③ Countries like the UK and Japan, which do not benefit from AI and are the first to face inflation-driven collapse, will successively experience severe fiscal and monetary policy crises. We should pray that AI substitution does not happen too quickly; otherwise, the existing credit system and national welfare fiscal systems will collapse rapidly.
One day, the market may realize that the bursting of the AI bubble could trigger contagious credit crises in certain sovereign nations. The monetary and fiscal response at that time might just be the perfect igniter for Bitcoin’s final major bull run.
本文源自網路： Metrics Ventures Market Observation: Brewing Storms
Introduction Compared to previous years, the tone of this AI Ascent was more direct: AI is no longer just a tool for improving efficiency but is beginning to enter real workflows and take over complex tasks previously only done by humans. In their opening speech, Sequoia called this the arrival of “functional AGI” – not that machines are already equivalent to humans in every dimension, but from a commercial and productivity perspective, long-horizon agents have crossed the threshold from demonstration to practical use. This is the core backdrop of the conference: when intelligence becomes cheap, callable, and scalable, the focus of AI competition is shifting from “can the model do it” to “how to connect it to the real world.” Software, services, organizations, hardware, energy, security, and physical space may…
繁體中文 
English 
简体中文 
日本語 
Tiếng Việt 
العربية 
한국어 
Bahasa Indonesia 
हिन्दी 
اردو 
Русский