Cobie’s Latest Interview: Crypto Market Experiences a “K-Shaped Divergence”

Video Author: Thread Guy

Compilation: Peggy, BlockBeats

Editor’s Note: This article is compiled from a long conversation between mật mã trader Cobie and content creator Thread Guy.

Cobie (@cobie) is one of the representative market narrators in the crypto community and co-hosted the well-known podcast, UpOnly. Known for his understanding of market cycles, trading experience, and a relatively restrained yet incisive communication style, he has established a stable influential voice in the industry. In 2025, his platform Echo was acquired by Coinbase.

Thread Guy is active at the intersection of content and products within the crypto ecosystem, operating projects including CounterpartyTV, Phantom, and Polymarket, playing a dual role as both a content creator and a builder.

This conversation garnered significant attention in the community, being frequently praised as a “long-overdue high-quality long-form interview.” The discussion didn’t stop at market trends or short-term trading judgments but pivoted to a more fundamental question: as the crypto industry’s technological capabilities and institutional expectations gradually materialize, why does the market still lack growth momentum? And within this structural disconnect, how should individuals reposition their own paths?

This conversation can be understood on three levels.

First, structural divergence. Cobie introduces a key judgment running throughout: the crypto industry is experiencing a clear “K-shaped divergence.” On one hand, applications like stablecoins, prediction markets, and on-chain trading are integrating into the real economy, with use cases and user scale continuously expanding. On the other hand, the token assets accessible to average retail investors are weak and suffering from declining demand.

This disconnect—where “applications grow but assets underperform”—causes a split between industry fundamentals and market sentiment, becoming the core source of current low morale. For investors, the issue isn’t “whether progress exists,” but “whether that progress belongs to them.”

Second, the repetition of paths. Looking back at the crypto market’s expansion over the past decade, a highly consistent cycle emerges: from altcoins in 2013, ICOs in 2017, DeFi and NFT in 2021, to recent meme coins. Each wave of user influx relies on the same mechanism: ordinary people making significant gains in a short time, creating a diffusion effect.

Narratives change, but the driving force remains stable. From this perspective, the current rise of AI isn’t a competitor to crypto but rather a continuation of the same mechanism: a new technological narrative + lower barriers to entry + the imagination of “getting rich quick.” The migration of capital and talent is essentially a natural flow of the cycle, not a failure of any single track.

Third, the restructuring of distribution. Beyond cycle and sentiment fluctuations, a deeper change is occurring in the value distribution structure. As companies like OpenAI and SpaceX accumulate massive value in private stages, ordinary investors find it increasingly difficult to participate in the real wealth creation process. Public markets are gradually degenerating into liquidity exit points rather than starting points for value creation. Against this backdrop, crypto’s once-promised “open participation” narrative faces the risk of being absorbed or even restructured by the traditional system.

However, Cobie also points out a potential path: if the current on-chain airdrop mechanism is expanded into a more universal “user value return” system—where users gain equity distribution by participating in products and contributing to growth—crypto could still become an institutional experiment to counter this trend.

Beyond all the structural discussions, Cobie’s conclusion is surprisingly direct: if you no longer believe in the long-term value of this industry, you should leave; if you still see its importance in five to ten years, allocate your assets based on that judgment, rather than being repeatedly drained by short-term volatility.

The crypto market has never been a stable wealth generation system; it’s closer to a series of endlessly repeating experiments. Each narrative and each cycle restructures the way participants and returns are distributed. When the short-term path is unclear, the question is no longer “what happens next,” but: do you still believe this system will be worth participating in at some future point?

The following is the organized content of the conversation (edited for readability):

Tóm lại

• Current crypto is in a state of “misalignment.” Truly valuable applications (stablecoins, prediction markets, on-chain trading) are developing rapidly, but ordinary investors can’t gain corresponding return exposure, leading to extremely low sentiment.
• Historically, every wave of user influx essentially stems from the same mechanism—ordinary people making money in a short time. From 2013 altcoins, 2017 ICOs, 2021 NFTs to meme coins, narratives differ, but the underlying logic is consistent.
• The market has seen a “K-shaped divergence”: on one side, applications and infrastructure are becoming more real and important; on the other, assets like tokens, memes, and governance tokens show weak price performance, worsening investor sentiment.
• The most overlooked risk currently is: crypto’s value might be “captured” and privatized by the traditional financial system, preventing ordinary people from participating in real wealth creation (e.g., OpenAI, SpaceX).
• Counter-intuitively, crypto often performs best during “the worst of times”, and when all good news materializes (regulation, ETFs, institutional entry), it often resembles a cyclical top.
• For individuals, if you no longer believe in crypto’s long-term value, you should leave instead of draining yourself here; if you believe it will still be important in 5-10 years, allocate assets based on that judgment, rather than trying to get rich quick in the short term.
• Those who are truly successful in the long run are not the most aggressive traders, but those with independent judgment, continuously iterating cognition, and the ability to “be content.”
• Crypto still has a potential long-term value: it could become a new distribution mechanism where users get rewarded for creating value (similar to an “on-chain equity/airdrop economy”).
• Final conclusion: Crypto is not a short-term wealth tool, but a cyclically repeating systemic experiment. As long as it can create wealth and narratives, people will return.

The Interview Content

Thread Guy:

Yo, what’s up?

Cobie:

I actually messed up a bit just now. I was scrolling Twitter and thought you were hosting a Space (maybe I’m getting old), so I wanted to listen in. But I clicked and found you were live streaming. I didn’t even know Twitter could do that. I thought, man, a nearly 40-year-old guy watching Thread Guy’s stream.

Thread Guy:

A lot of people are watching, not just you. Rich people too. So how have you been? You’ve been pretty quiet.

Cobie:

I’m not as funny anymore (laughs). But overall, okay, not bad.

Thread Guy:

Everyone’s asking when UpOnly is coming back. What have you been up to these past few months?

Note: UpOnly was a crypto podcast co-hosted by Cobie and Ledger from 2020 to 2022. The show focused on interviews, market narratives, trading experiences, and industry insights. It had significant influence during the 2021 bull run and was considered an important discussion platform in the crypto community.

Cobie:

Work, real work.

Thread Guy:

The kind where you go work at Coinbase?

Cobie:

Honestly, I’m doing more work now than I have in a long time. Actually, a few years ago, I wanted to join Coinbase, even offered to work for free, but they didn’t want me. In my view, there are some “high-leverage” things in this industry that can change the overall trajectory, and making Coinbase a success is one of them, so I wanted to give it a try.

Plus, I’ve been on Twitter for 10 years. I need to do something more challenging and exciting than just coming up with jokes all day.

Note: Cobie tried to join Coinbase in his early years without success, but after his platform Echo was acquired by Coinbase in 2025, he re-entered this core institution by being “integrated into the system.”

Thread Guy:

I have a ton of questions, but let’s start with the crypto market. The state of things is honestly not that interesting right now. Recently, issues with Arbitrum, Aave, LayerZero, and Drift have really hit sentiment. How do you see crypto, especially DeFi, right now? Where is it heading?

Cobie:

I think we might be on the verge of DeFi 2.0.

For me, the most worrying thing right now is that some models like Anthropic’s (or that type of AI) seem capable of “participating” in these systems. This makes DeFi kind of a “financial hunting ground.” But conversely, once these models are more widely distributed – not just for attackers, but for those building the systems – the situation will be completely different. So I think this is an inflection point. The future version of DeFi is actually quite exciting.

Sentiment in DeFi is really low right now. Aside from a few projects like Hyperliquid and Trade.xyz, there’s not much interesting going on. But these examples themselves are very cool – really cool.

Thread Guy:

Are you trading crude oil now?

Cobie:

You’re trading crude oil? That’s great. I’m happy for you if you’re making money.

Thread Guy:

Did you see the bear behind me?

Cobie:

You’re setting up the background now, getting that American vibe.

Thread Guy:

Yeah, crude oil trading.

Cobie:

So you moved to New York to become a crude oil trader? That’s an interesting life path.

K-Shaped Divergence: Applications Grow, Assets Underperform

Thread Guy:

Speaking of DeFi 2.0 and AI, a lot of people even think you’re AI right now (laughs). But getting back to the main point, why are you still willing to invest in Coinbase? Haven’t you become cynical about crypto’s future? A lot of people feel that way – including me. I’m trading crude oil, looking at stocks, doing various traditional assets.

Cobie:

You’re basically using crypto infrastructure to trade non-crypto assets, right?

I think crypto is undergoing a “K-shaped divergence.” On one side, “crypto-native applications” are exploding, more successful than ever, but this success isn’t reflected in the asset prices that ordinary investors can buy.

For example, Polymarket is doing extremely well. Prediction markets have become a real track, now forming a duopoly with Kalshi and Polymarket. Stablecoins are starting to be widely used; even Doordash is using stablecoins to pay drivers. These things are happening in the real world and are important.

But the problem is, as an investor, you can’t buy these things. You can’t buy Stripe equity – it’s still private. You can’t buy Polymarket. You can’t buy the things that are actually doing well. Meanwhile, the demand and attention for crypto assets themselves are declining. So you feel frustrated, because you ask yourself: “What exactly am I supposed to buy?”

In reality, crypto is doing a lot of what it originally promised. Things like Hyperliquid, Trade.xyz, various on-chain markets – these are very cool. You can even predict Monday’s opening price within tens of basis points. This is a “real market,” running on-chain.

But the issue is the disconnect between market performance and real progress. Meme coins aren’t rising. Governance tokens aren’t rising. So everyone thinks everything is terrible. But it’s just because you can’t get “exposure” to the truly good things.

From a broader macro perspective, I’m still bullish on crypto. If more and more capital flows on-chain, then sooner or later, another manic cycle will come – with excitement, bubbles, and a bit of “dumbness.” But it’s inevitable.

Thread Guy:

You sound optimistic now, which is unusual (laughs).

Cobie:

I’ve always been relatively optimistic. Honestly, I’ve had many pessimistic times in my life, but I’ve never really profited from it.

Maybe if I had been more pessimistic about FTX back then, I wouldn’t have lost so much. Maybe if I had been more pessimistic about those NFTs in 2021, I wouldn’t have bought them.

But generally speaking, pessimism hasn’t made me more successful.

Thread Guy:

Alright, let me ask a more realistic concern. Bitcoin’s performance compared to gold and other assets hasn’t been that strong. People were supposed to be discussing its value and risk-resistance, but now the market only talks about how much Bitcoin Saylor and MicroStrategy hold.

Do you think this is a real risk?

Cobie:

I wasn’t worried at all until I went to the dentist. My dentist asked me: “Do you buy stocks?” I said I don’t really know much about investing. He said: “Have you heard of MicroStrategy?” I freaked out a bit (laughs).

He’s probably in his 70s and said he only owns two stocks: 80% in MicroStrategy and 20% in Palantir. I thought to myself: damn, I might need to find a new dentist.

That was the first time I realized this thing had “gone mainstream.” Before, the people caring about MicroStrategy were mostly in the crypto sphere or on Twitter. But now, it’s entered the real world.

Sometimes I even wonder if crypto exists at all, or if it’s just a figment of my imagination. It wasn’t until that moment that I realized, no, it’s real, and other people know about it too.

Of course, maybe my dentist is a hallucination (laughs).

Thread Guy:

So are you actually starting to worry about Saylor and his strategy?

Cobie:

Not particularly worried, but it does feel like it’s becoming a “sword of Damocles.” Before, people thought Saylor was a buyer, a positive catalyst. Now it feels more like a factor to be wary of.

But this sentiment is very price-dependent. When prices drop, people say “oh, Saylor is providing support.” When prices rise, it’s “bullish, Saylor!” Think back to the last peak, maybe six months ago. Chợ sentiment then was totally different from now.

I’ve always thought one of the magical things about crypto is that current sentiment feels incredibly real, making you think “there’s no other way to feel.” But looking back three months, you realize the sentiment was the exact opposite.

Personally, I’ve always found pessimism unhelpful, so I tend to zoom out and maintain some optimism. Maybe I’m wrong, but at least it’s my consistent approach.

Thread Guy:

Have you ever met Saylor in real life?

Cobie:

I recorded a podcast with him, about two and a half hours. Beforehand, a friend texted me: “What are you guys going to talk about?” I said: “We’ll just ask one thing – is Bitcoin good? Then Saylor will talk for three hours himself.”

And that’s exactly what happened. We barely said anything; he talked for hours. But it was fun (laughs). I even tried to invite him to my New Year’s party, but I didn’t end up going myself.

Thread Guy:

Are you basically agoraphobic now?

Cobie:

Honestly, I almost never go out. If I did go out, maybe I would, but most of the time I just stay home.

Thread Guy:

Are you one of those people who is completely “terminal online”?

Cobie:

Not completely, I go for walks sometimes – in my own garden. Mainly to avoid encountering other people (laughs).

Why Did UpOnly Stop?

Thread Guy:

Is that why UpOnly isn’t coming back? Everyone really wants to know.

Cobie:

You know the “sophomore album curse”? Like some bands hit it big with the first album, but the second one flops. It’s very common. I feel like I’m in that state now.

Every time I think about restarting the podcast, I start doubting everything: I don’t know if I can be as interesting anymore; I don’t know what to talk about; I don’t know who to invite; and a lot of past guests ended up in jail (laughs), so now I have to think twice about inviting people.

More importantly, UpOnly happened during the “best market phase”: everyone was stuck at home during the pandemic; Bitcoin went from $4,000 to its peak; Ethereum went from $80 to $4,000; followed by the NFT bull run. It was a time when everyone was making money and sentiment was extremely optimistic. So people remember UpOnly as being great, not just because of the show itself, but because it happened during the market’s most favorable period.

Now, the market is colder, sentiment is worse, people are more anxious and prone to attacking each other.

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