Bitcoin Maintains Bearish Dominance, HYPE Consolidates for Next Move | Guest Analysis
Last week, our market predictions for HYPE and BTC were once again validated by the market—HYPE stopped falling and rebounded near the low point of Wave IV, while BTC maintained a wide-range consolidation pattern, with the price action highly consistent with our previous judgment.
This week, the market has reached a juncture requiring patience rather than impulse. We will continue our analysis focusing on HYPE and BTC, with a key emphasis on this week’s entry timing and operational strategies.
Welcome to join our Odaily بازار Insights & Discussion Group. I will share daily market commentary and short-term trading ideas within the group, engaging in real-time discussions on market dynamics with everyone.
Summary of This Week’s Core Trading Views:
• Multi-timeframe structural analysis of HYPE’s price action.
• Full-cycle tracking of HYPE’s market dynamic evolution.
• This week’s HYPE market forecast and short-term trading strategies.
• Analysis of BTC’s current price structure.
• This week’s BTC market forecast and medium/short-term trading strategies.
بازار Validation of Trading Strategies and Core Views:
• HYPE Short-term Trading Performance: Last week, we completed two short-term long trades (1x leverage) on HYPE, achieving a cumulative return of approximately 9.02%. (Details in Table 1)
• Market Validation of HYPE Price Action Forecast: In last week’s article, we pointed out that HYPE’s Wave IV correction might end near the April 2nd low of $34.44, followed by an upward trend. Our core task last week was to capture the right-side long entry point. The current market action validates our previous view, with last week’s rebound reaching a high of $43.18.
• Validation of BTC Medium-term Trading Performance: Bitcoin followed the established medium-term strategy last week, continuing to hold the short position established at $89,000 (1x leverage). As of last week’s close (approx. $70,742), the profit is about 20.51%, with a maximum profit during the period of about 32.58%. (Details in Part Six)
• Market Validation of BTC Price Action Forecast: In last week’s article, we indicated the market would maintain a wide-range consolidation pattern. The current market action validates our previous forecast.
I. HYPE: Price Structure Analysis
1. HYPE Daily Chart Price Structure Division: (Based on price action evolution since January 21)
HYPE Daily Candlestick Chart
Figure 1
As shown in (Figure 1):
• Wave I (Impulse Wave): From the January 21 low of $20.46 to the February 3 high of $38.41, lasting 14 days, with a maximum gain of 87.73%.
• Wave II (Corrective Wave): From the February 3 high of $38.41 to the February 24 low of $25.60, lasting 20 days, with a maximum decline of 33.35%.
• Wave III (Main Impulse Wave): From the February 24 low of $25.60 to the March 18 high of $43.78, lasting 23 days, with a maximum gain of 71.02%.
• Wave IV (Corrective Wave): From the March 18 high of $43.78 to the April 2 low of $34.44, lasting 15 days, with a maximum decline of 21.33%.
• Potential Wave V (Impulse Wave): From the April 2 low of $34.44 to present, has run for 10 days, with a maximum gain of 25.38%. As the current price has not yet broken the Wave III high ($38.41), this movement is still considered part of the potential Wave V phase.
2. Full-Cycle Tracking of HYPE Market Dynamic Evolution
• February 23 Weekly Review: First indicated HYPE might be entering an investment window, noting the price was in a Wave II correction phase and forecasting the potential start of a Wave III main impulse.
• March 3 Weekly Review: Determined the February 24 low of $25.60 could be the Wave III starting point, confirming a potential trend reversal location.
• March 9 Weekly Review: Noted the price had effectively broken through multiple moving average resistance on the daily chart, entering a consolidation phase, with expectations for a rapid rise after completion.
• March 16 Weekly Review: Indicated the price was in a Wave III trend, constructing an upward consolidation zone (i.e., Zone B). Forecasted a high probability of wide-range consolidation after completion.
• March 30 Weekly Review: Noted the overall market structure remained in a daily uptrend, with the price undergoing a retest and confirmation of the breakout above the Wave I high/low ($38.41), i.e., the Wave IV correction phase.
• April 6 Weekly Review: Indicated the Wave IV correction might have ended at the April 2 low ($34.44), with a potential Wave V rise to follow.
3. In-depth Deconstruction of HYPE’s Current Price Structure (Using 4-hour as analysis timeframe)
HYPE 4-hour Candlestick Chart
Figure 2
• Structural division of the potential Wave V upward movement based on the April 2 low of $34.44.
• As shown in (Figure 2), the potential Wave V can be subdivided into: the upward structure from pivot point 28 to pivot point 30, consisting of segments 28-29 and 29-30.
• The market is currently in segment 29-30. The chart shows that, according to our proprietary Spread Trading Model, pivot point 29 triggered a top warning signal (green and white dots in the chart), indicating technical indicators are in overbought territory, suggesting short-term consolidation/correction is needed.
II. HYPE: This Week’s Market Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategy
1. HYPE This Week’s Market Forecast:
• This Week’s Forecast: As shown in (Figure 2), HYPE has risen for 10 consecutive days since the April 2 low, approaching the previous Wave III high of $43.78. From the 4-hour chart, short-term technical indicators show overbought signals, posing a risk of volatility early this week. Investors are advised to avoid blindly chasing highs, patiently wait for low-entry opportunities after the shakeout ends and the trend stabilizes, and strictly set stop-losses.
2. HYPE This Week’s Short-term Trading Strategy:
• Based on the overall uptrend forecast, the strategy should follow “trade with the trend, buy on dips”.
• Using signals from our proprietary quantitative models, with 30-minute/60-minute as operational timeframes, utilize 30% position size to capture long entry opportunities.
• Entry Strategy: HYPE faces correction needs early this week. If the price retraces to the key support zone of $37.5～$38 and shows confirmed signals of holding above support, combined with bottom buy signals from both models, consider entering long positions, with strict stop-losses set.
III. Bitcoin: Analysis of Consolidation Price Structure
Bitcoin 4-hour Candlestick Chart
Figure 3
1. Based on price action evolution since the March 30 low of $65,000.
2. As shown in (Figure 3), BTC initiated a volatile upward movement from the March 30 low. From pivot point 18 to pivot point 22, it consists of a 4-segment structure: 18-19, 19-20, 20-21, 21-22.
3. Currently, segment 21-22 is in progress. The chart shows that, according to our proprietary Spread Trading Model, areas near pivot point 21 triggered top warning signals (green and white dots in the chart), indicating technical indicators are in overbought territory, while facing the key resistance level of $74,500. Therefore, the market has short-term needs for a downward correction/consolidation.
IV. Bitcoin: This Week’s Market Forecast and Trading Strategy
1. BTC This Week’s Market Forecast:
• Core View for This Week:
This week is expected to maintain wide-range consolidation within the $65,000～$74,000 range. The current price is retesting support near the range’s midline and key support level of $69,500. If this support holds, the market will maintain a strong consolidation structure: if support is effectively broken, the consolidation structure weakens, and the price may further test the key support near $65,000. Currently, the market is news-driven, sentiment is sensitive, and direction is unclear. Investors are advised to adopt a wait-and-see approach for now.
2. Key Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Zone: $74,500～$76,000 area (near the April 2025 low)
• Second Resistance Zone: $79,000～$80,600 area (near the November 2025 low)
3. Key Support Levels:
• First Support Level: Near $69,500 (previous important support level)
• Second Support Level: $65,000～$66,000 area (near the lower boundary of the consolidation range)
• Third Support Level: $60,000～$62,500 area (near the February 6 low)
4. This Week’s Trading Strategy (Excluding Sudden News Impact): (04.13～04.19)
① Medium-term Strategy:
Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)
Figure 4
Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 4), the current price is below the Bull-Bear Ribbon (yellow), with the bearish trend continuing. Following strategy rules, we continue to hold the 60% short position established at $89,000 (January 28).
• If the price rebounds and effectively breaks above and stabilizes above the Bull-Bear Ribbon, all medium-term positions will be closed.
② Short-term Strategy: Utilize 30% position size, set stop-loss points, and look for “spread” trading opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Using 30-minute/60-minute as operational timeframe).
③ Based on the forecast of a medium-term bearish market trend, the current operational principle should be “trade with the trend, go short”. To dynamically respond to complex market evolution and combined with signals from our proprietary trading models, we have formulated three short-term operational plans: A/B/C:
• Plan A: Short on rallies encountering resistance.
• Entry: When the price rallies to the $74,500～$76,000 zone, triggers resistance signals, and combines with model top signals, establish a 30% short position.
• Risk Control: Initial stop-loss set above $76,500.
• Exit: When the price falls near important support levels combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.
• Plan B: Small Position Breakdown Short.
• Entry: When the price effectively breaks below the key support near $69,000, combined with model top signals, follow the trend to establish a 30% short position.
• Risk Control: Initial stop-loss set above $70,500.
• Exit: When falling to support levels combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.
• Plan C: Large Position Breakdown Short.
• Entry: When the price effectively breaks below the key support near $65,000, combined with model top signals, follow the trend to establish a 60% short position.
• Risk Control: Initial short stop-loss set above $66,500.
• Exit: When falling to support levels combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.
V. HYPE: Trading Review
1. Short-term Trading Review: (See Table 1)
We strictly followed the operational plan, based on trading signals from our proprietary Spread Trading Model and Momentum Quantitative Model, completing two short-term (long) trades last week, achieving a cumulative trading profit of 9.02%.
2. HYPE Short-term Trading Details Summary: (Leverage*1x)
Table 1
3. First Short-term Trade Review: (See Figure 5)
• Entry Strategy: Based on the judgment that the market’s Wave IV correction ended near $34.44, combined with bottom divergence signals from the Momentum Model and the Spread Trading Model being at a bottom position, we formulated a plan to buy on dips. Therefore, when the price retested this level and showed signs of stabilization, we established a 30% long position at $36.39.
• Exit Strategy: When the price rose near $40 and encountered resistance, while the Spread Trading Model triggered strong top warning signals (green dot + white dot), we closed all positions near $38.59.
• Summary: This trade successfully achieved a profit of approximately 6.04%.
3. Second Short-term Trade Review: (See Figure 5)
• Entry Strategy: When the price broke through the key resistance at $39.5 and successfully retested it, while the candlestick formed a “bottom reversal” pattern, combined with synchronized upward signals from both models. Therefore, we established a 30% long position at $40.51.
• Exit Strategy: When the price rose near $43 and encountered resistance, while the Spread Trading Model triggered strong top warning signals (green dot + white dot), we closed all positions near $41.72.
• Summary: This trade successfully achieved a profit of approximately 2.98%.
HYPE 30-minute Candlestick Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)
Figure 5 (Short-term Trading Illustration)
VI. Special Notes:
1. When opening a position: Immediately set the initial stop-loss level.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry price (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
4. Continuous Tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit in price, move the stop-loss up by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking
یہ مضمون انٹرنیٹ سے لیا گیا ہے: Bitcoin Maintains Bearish Dominance, HYPE Consolidates for Next Move | Guest Analysis
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