BTC encounters resistance at the $80,000 mark three times, while HYPE signals a new high with signs already appearing | Special Analysis

Last week’s short position operation successfully realized a 2.78% gain, once again validating the “signal-driven, discipline-observing” trading logic. However, a single profit never means the direction is necessarily correct—the market always holds possibilities beyond expectations.

The core variable this week remains the battle between the 78,500～79,500 USD resistance zone and the 73,500～75,000 USD support zone. We leave the outcome to the market to decide.

Summary of Key Trading Views for This Week:

• BTC multi-cycle trend structure analysis. (Detailed explanation in Part 1)

• BTC market forecast and medium/short-term trading strategy for this week. (Detailed explanation in Part 2) 

• HYPE hourly level trend structure analysis. (Detailed explanation in Part 3)

• HYPE market forecast and short-term trading strategy for this week. (Detailed explanation in Part 4)

Pasar Validation of Last Week’s Trading Strategy and Key Views:

• BTC Short-term Trading Effectiveness: Bitcoin completed a short-term short position operation (1x leverage) last week, successfully realizing a gain of approximately 2.78%. (Detailed explanation in Table 1)

• Pasar Validation of BTC Trend Forecast: In last week’s article, we pointed out that if the price effectively breaks below the 78,500～79,500 USD support zone, it would likely test the support strength near 75,000 USD. The current market movement has validated our previous forecast.

I. Bitcoin Multi-cycle Trend Structure Analysis

1. BTC Daily Level Trend Structure Analysis

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart:

Figure 1

• As shown in (Figure 1), since establishing a significant low near 60,000 USD on February 6, 2026, the Bitcoin daily chart has formed and maintained a structurally clear ascending channel: its lower boundary is formed by connecting the lows of February 6 and March 29, while the upper boundary is drawn parallel to the lower boundary through the high of March 17.

• In our April 27 Weekly Review, we stated: “The price is currently facing dual resistance from the channel’s upper boundary and the 79,500 to 80,600 USD resistance zone, making a breakthrough difficult,” a judgment subsequently validated by market action. Despite nearly 20 days of struggle between bulls and bears, and even creating a new rebound high of 82,850 USD on May 6, the price failed to break through this zone effectively, subsequently beginning a volatile decline.

• Observing the current structure, the price has pulled back from the upper channel boundary to the channel’s middle area. If the price fails to find effective support near the middle boundary and resume its upward trend, the probability of seeking support at the lower channel boundary in the future is increasing.

2. In-depth Analysis of BTC Hourly Level Trend Structure

Bitcoin 4-Hour K-line Chart

Figure 2

As shown in (Figure 2), since the May 6 high of 82,850 USD, the adjustment has continued to date; 

• On the 4-hour chart, this can be subdivided into an 8-segment adjustment structure: segments 27-28 through 34-35. Consolidation Zone D: Segments 28-29, 29-30, and 30-31 overlap each other, forming Consolidation Zone D.

• Based on the 4-hour structure, segment 34-35 is about to rebound into the 78,500～79,500 USD zone. If the price faces pressure and falls back in this area without a valid breakout, the market will likely continue the current volatile adjustment pattern, potentially retesting the core support zone of 73,500～75,000 USD.

II. Bitcoin Market Forecast and Trading Strategy for This Week

1. BTC Market Trend Forecast for This Week:

Core View for This Week: Focus on the outcome of the battle between bulls and bears over the 78,500～79,500 USD resistance zone and the 73,500～75,000 USD support zone.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

    • First Resistance Zone: 78,500～79,500 USD area (near the upper/lower boundaries of the two consolidation zones)  

    • Second Resistance Zone: 83,500～84,500 USD area (previous dense trading volume zone)3. Key Support Levels:

    • First Support Level: 73,500～75,000 USD area (significant previous support level)   

    • Second Support Level: 69,500～70,500 USD area (significant previous support level)

4. Trading Strategy for This Week (excluding unexpected news impacts)

①. Medium-term Strategy:

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 3

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 3), based on trading rules, the medium-term market direction is not yet clear. The medium-term strategy for this week is to maintain a waiting position with no trades.

②. Short-term Strategy: Use 30% of capital with a stop-loss set, looking for “spread” trading opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Using 30-minute/60-minute chart as the operating cycle).

③. For short-term operations, to dynamically respond to complex market changes, we prepare two specific operation plans in advance: A/B.

 • Plan A: Rebound Meets Resistance, Sell High.

    • Entry: When the price rebounds to the 78,500～79,500 USD zone and encounters resistance, combined with a top signal from the quantitative model, establish a short position using less than 30% of capital.

    • Risk Management: Initial stop-loss set above 80,600 USD.

    • Exit: When the price corrects near a key support level combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profit.

• Plan B: Valid Breakdown Below Support, Follow Trend Short.

    • Entry: When the price effectively breaks below the 73,500～75,000 USD support zone combined with a top signal from the model, establish a short position using less than 30% of capital.

    • Risk Management: Initial stop-loss set above 76,500 USD.

    • Exit: When the price drops to a key support level combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profit.

III. HYPE Trend Structure Analysis

HYPE 4-Hour K-line Chart

Figure 4

1. As shown in (Figure 4), the upward trend for HYPE that began from the May 14 low of 38.14 USD can be divided into five segments on the 4-hour chart: 40-41, 41-42, 42-43, 43-44, and 44-45.

2. Our proprietary “Spread Trading Model” indicates that endpoint 45 has triggered a top warning signal (white dot).

3. According to the “Momentum Quantification Model,” the upward segment (44-45) has shown waning upward momentum near 65 USD.

4. If the price forms a momentum top divergence at “endpoint 45” and this coincides with the “Spread Trading Model’s” top warning signal, forming a resonance, the probability of the price establishing a short-term high at this point significantly increases.

 IV. HYPE Market Forecast and Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week

1. HYPE Market Trend Forecast for This Week:

Core View on HYPE This Week:

• Observe whether “endpoint 45” can form a short-term high since the rally began on May 14.

• If a short-term high is formed, look for short-term buying opportunities when the price pulls back to a key support zone (e.g., 47.5 to 50 USD) and shows clear signs of stabilization.

2. HYPE Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week: (Buying Support)

Currently, the strategy should be “avoid blindly chasing rallies, buy on dips.” If the price pulls back to the 47.5 to 50 USD area, stabilizes and shows signs of firming, combined with bottom signals triggered by the two models, consider a small test long position. Position size must be controlled under 30%, and stop-loss discipline must be strictly adhered to.

V. Operation Review

1. Short-term Operation Review: (See Table 1)

We strictly followed the operation plan. Based on trading signals from our proprietary “Spread Trading Model” and “Momentum Quantification Model,” we completed one short-term short position operation last week, achieving a trading profit of 2.78%.

①. Bitcoin Short-term Trading Details Summary: (Leverage 1x)

Table 1

②. Short-term Trade Review: (See Figure 6)

• Entry Strategy:

a. When the price rebounded near 78,500 USD and encountered resistance, forming a bearish “top divergence” K-line pattern;

b. The “Spread Trading Model” triggered a top warning signal (white dot), and the “Momentum Quantification Model” formed a momentum top divergence signal.

Therefore, we established a 30% short position at 77,782 USD.

• Exit Strategy:

a. When the price fell near 75,000 USD and stabilized, forming a bullish “bottom divergence” K-line pattern;

b. The “Spread Trading Model” triggered a strong bottom warning signal (red dot + white dot), resonating with a bottom signal from the “Momentum Quantification Model.”

Therefore, we closed all positions near 75,616 USD.

• Summary: This trade successfully yielded a profit of approximately 2.78%.

BTC 30-Minute K-line Chart: (Momentum Quantification Model + Spread Trading Model)

Figure 5 (Short-term Trade Illustration)

VI. Special Reminders:​​

 1. Upon entry: Immediately set the initial stop-loss.

 2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.

 3. When profit reaches 2%​​: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.

 4. Continuous tracking: For every subsequent 1% profit increase, move the stop-loss up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in profits.

Financial markets change rapidly; all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustments. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, serving solely as a personal trading journal, and do not constitute any investment advice or trading basis. Market risk exists; invest with caution. Do not make decisions based on this.

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