Macro Landscape
The Trump Trade Playbook: We’re Now at Step Nine
According to the Trump trade playbook, every major confrontation within the Trump framework ultimately concludes with a narrative of “maximum pressure in exchange for concessions.” The potential market impact of this development cannot be ignored.
The Kobeissi Letter points out that Step Ten—the market’s violent repricing following the official announcement of an agreement—will arrive in the coming weeks. At that point, investors who have long held defensive positions will face pressure to rapidly close their positions, potentially triggering a sharp rally in stocks, while oil prices could plummet as expectations for the reopening of shipping lanes solidify.
Don’t Bomb Oil Fields, Bomb the Charts: The Economics of Trump’s Threats
Rather than using deadlines to force Iran’s hand, Trump seems more intent on using them to set the rhythm for the international news cycle and the global energy market.
Trump often reuses a four-step dance: maximum threat, critical withdrawal, opening of negotiations, and ritualized climax. Each step in between is priced by the media and markets as an independent event, and each step’s pricing is reset by the next.
20% Shortage, 100% Collapse: The True Logic of an Energy Crisis
The issue isn’t whether oil is already insufficient, but that once enough people begin to believe it might become insufficient, the system will prematurely enter a phase of contraction and revaluation. Strategic reserves can only buy time, not provide answers; and this window is closing rapidly.
Mid-to-late April will become a critical juncture. By then, the market will need to confront not “whether it will happen,” but “when it will be confirmed.”
The Market Awaits War’s End, But Oil Prices Are Pricing in a Protracted Conflict
As the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed, the global crude oil supply system is being forced to reconfigure—Asian buyers are shifting en masse to U.S. crude, with WTI surpassing Brent, signaling structural changes in pricing mechanisms and trade flows. Short-term price differentials can be explained by contracts, but the deeper issue is “who can still supply.” The market’s key misjudgment lies not in price, but in time.
The futures curve still implies a premise: the conflict will end shortly, and supply will recover. However, the more likely path is a long war of attrition. This means elevated oil prices are no longer a temporary shock but will evolve into a more persistent structural state, with the range potentially shifting upward to $120–150. Under this framework, crude oil is no longer just a commodity; it becomes the “upstream variable” for all assets. Its repricing will transmit layer by layer through interest rates, exchange rates, stock markets, and credit markets.
Into the Lion’s Den: A Field Report from the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is not simply in a state of being open or closed. The reality is one of hot war and commercial diplomacy running in parallel: the U.S. is conducting military operations, while its allies (such as France, Japan, Greece) are actively negotiating transit rights with Iran.
This is a classic symptom of a multipolar world.
Investment & Entrepreneurship
Q2 looks more like a quarter of high volatility, strong divergence, and structural opportunities, with limited beta returns at the index level. However, alpha hasn’t disappeared; instead, it will be more concentrated, more selective, and more reliant on understanding the evolution of key themes than in Q1.
The key themes for U.S. stocks in Q2 are: AI Infrastructure 2.0, Finance & Cyclicals, Aerospace & Commercial Space, the ‘Seven Sisters’ and Software Repair, Precious Metals & Resource Security.
Gold Returns to $4,800: Where’s the Top This Year?
Prediction markets indicate prices may fall below $4,200 before June, with a potential peak exceeding $6,000 within the year; Institutional view: Gold will still reach new highs, with prices around $5,200 by the end of June.
A 400% APY ‘Free Lunch’? The Truth Behind Trade.xyz’s Negative Perpetual Funding Rate for Crude Oil
A rare phenomenon has appeared on Trade.xyz’s WTIOIL-USDC crude oil perpetual contract: the annualized funding rate has stabilized between -300% and -400%. This means any trader willing to go long at this moment can receive profits equivalent to 1% of their principal daily from the shorts. The market doesn’t give away money for free.
Three common strategies are as follows: Short the crude oil contract on Trade.xyz at the current price while going long on the far-month contract on CME; Short the far-month futures contract and go long on the near-month contract on Trade.xyz, closing the position before the rollover begins; Short the funding rate of the Trade.xyz contract on Boros before the rollover begins.
Relay services selling “low-cost APIs” remain undervalued: Using کرپٹوcurrency (Crypto ٹوکن) to directly purchase AI ٹوکن is a structural entry point that hasn’t been fully exploited; Bundling and selling domestic models like Qwen, Kimi, GLM, Minimax to overseas users is a “reverse export” path not yet mainstream.
However, before this business can truly take off, one must squarely face—capital requirements, resource channels, and legal compliance.
In a Money-Losing Bear Market, Who’s Quietly Making a Fortune?
First, interest rate spreads. Essentially, this is acting as a “capital intermediary.” The core logic is to absorb funds at a relatively low cost while deploying them at a relatively high yield, using time to gradually accumulate the difference between returns and costs. The profit from such businesses depends on the scale and duration of capital accumulation—the larger the scale and the longer the duration, the higher the profit.
Second, transaction taxes (fees). This type of business is easier to understand. Whenever transaction-related activities (including token creation) occur, the business entity can “tax” each activity in the form of fees. The profit from such businesses depends on the transaction size per activity and the frequency of activities—the larger the size and the higher the frequency, the higher the profit.
Five and a Half Months into the Bear Market: A Crypto Market Health Check
If the total market cap decline matches the relative peak-to-trough decline from 2018 to 2022, we might see the total کرپٹو market cap fall 62% from its peak to $1.67 trillion (a further 30% drop from current levels). In the 2022 bear market, the decline accelerated 5 months after stablecoin supply peaked and began to fall. We are in a similar phase of the cycle today, as stablecoin supply hit a local high on March 16th, roughly 5 months into the bear market.
BTC dominance typically declines during bear markets (it was 38% at the 2022 bottom). Currently, it stands at 57%. We expect its decline to be more moderate in this bear market cycle.
Prediction بازارs
Prediction Markets Mired in Major Controversy Again: Are You Trading Facts or Rules?
Recently, two highly controversial events occurred in prediction markets—Polymarket: The U.S. rescue of a U.S. military pilot in Iran was ruled as a U.S. invasion of Iran; Predict.fun: Polymarket issuing a stablecoin was ruled as a token launch.
Some high-probability events may look like “sure bets,” but they aren’t without risk; they might even be potential “total loss” scenarios. Many reversals happen precisely in these overlooked details. Rather than blindly betting, taking a closer look at the rules is more useful than complaining after losing money.
Also recommended: 《The Eight-Year Startup Journey of Kalshi: A Boxer in a Suit Steps into the Ring》.
CeFi & DeFi
Data Study: How Big is the Liquidity Gap Between Hyperliquid and CME for Crude Oil?
Currently, Hyperliquid indeed cannot match CME in absolute metrics like liquidity depth or slippage, with overall liquidity being less than 1%.
Hyperliquid’s difference lies in the significant growth in trading volume for its crude oil contracts during weekend hours. This indicates that besides retail speculators on weekends, traders seeking crude oil exposure or hedging operations before Monday are also trading on Hyperliquid. This trend is becoming increasingly apparent, giving Hyperliquid price discovery capabilities for commodities.
However, for institutional investors, the high transaction costs on the Hyperliquid platform compared to CME remain a major obstacle to its expansion in commodity trading. If Hyperliquid does not promptly improve its ability to handle institutional-grade orders, it can only serve as a temporary weekend trading venue for traditional traders, ultimately becoming a minor supplement to the traditional financial landscape.
ایئر ڈراپ Opportunities & Interaction Guides
Popular Interaction Collection | Cascade Private Beta is Live; KARPAK SBT Minting (April 10th)
Step-by-Step Guide to Participating in Circle’s Own Public Chain Arc Community Activities
میم
If You’re Over 25, You’re Already Too Old for Meme Coins
Meme has become a global competition for capturing hype. The top players in this game are approaching the skill level of professional esports athletes. Moreover, actual esports athletes have joined the game. The difficulty of standing out and winning prizes in this game has far exceeded our imagination.
سیکورٹی
Anthropic Has Built the Most Powerful AI Model in History, But Dares Not Release It…
Mythos, the next-generation AI model under development by Anthropic, is the first model in human history to surpass the ten-trillion parameter mark (in contrast, mainstream models currently range from hundreds of billions to one trillion parameters). Its training cost reached a staggering $10 billion, and it scored significantly higher in tests for software coding, academic reasoning, and cybersecurity.
The company dares not release the model publicly directly, fearing malicious exploitation by hacker groups. Instead, it plans to first allow leading tech giants to trial and vet it through the “Project Glasswing” initiative, patching potential vulnerabilities in advance.
Weekly Hot Topics Recap
Policy & Macro بازارs
U.S.-Iran temporary ceasefire, بی ٹی سی surges past $72k, future outlook uncertain;
Iran plans to levy a transit fee on oil tankers during ceasefire, $1 per barrel payable in Bitcoin (تجزیہ);
Russia announces brief ceasefire;
SEC Chair: Crypto safe harbor proposal submitted to White House for review, would allow crypto projects to raise funds without immediate registration;
Hong Kong’s First Stablecoin Licenses awarded to HSBC, Standard Chartered, stablecoin launch expected as early as mid-year;
Views & Voices
Bitwise: Institutions see current period as good entry point, Bitcoin could hit $95k by year-end;
Caixin: Polymarket’s use of USDC for settlement and delivery poses a significant legal risk for participants within China;
CZ’s Autobiography “Freedom of Money” released (Highlights + Review), details in book spark online debate between CZ and Star;
Institutions, Large Companies & Leading Projects
SpaceX plans to publicly release its IPO prospectus by end of May;
تجزیہ: Bank of New York Mellon (BNY) selected as the U.S. government’s designated financial agent to manage initial accounts; Robinhood will partner with BNY, serving as broker and initial trustee for the “Trump Account”;
پولی مارکیٹ plans comprehensive trading engine upgrade and launch of native stablecoin Polymarket USD (تجزیہ);
Fox News partners with Kalshi to introduce prediction markets to enhance reporting accuracy;
سولانہ launches Agent Skills, enabling AI agents to interact on-chain;
یہ مضمون انٹرنیٹ سے لیا گیا ہے: Weekly Editor’s Picks (0404-0410)
1. CEX Hot Tokens Top 10 CEX Trading Volume and 24-hour Price Change: BTC: +6.91% ETH: +7.93% SOL: +3.97% XRP: +5.11% DOGE: +8.25% BNB: +4.01% PAXG: -0.05% MANTRA: +41.6% ADA: +4.83% ZEC: +8.88% 24-hour Gainers List (Data Source: OKX): CFG: +39.61% PHA: +28.47% ALLO: +16.45% HUMA: +11.05% RESOLV: +10% AGLD: +9.94% ZEC: +8.74% CVX: +8.5% PEOPLE: +7.83% DOGE: +7.76% 24-hour Crypto-Equity Gainers List (Data Source: msx.com): Bit Origin – MSX: +38.6% Gemini Space Station, Inc. – MSX: +33.23% Upexi, Inc. – MSX: +31.19% GraniteShares ETF Trust GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF – MSX: +28.62% STKE – MSX: +20.97% Tidal Trust II Defiance Daily Target 2x Long MSTR ETF – MSX: +20.17% Sui Group Holdings Limited – MSX: +19.51% Defi Development Corp. – MSX: +18.16% Galaxy Digital Inc. – MSX:…
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