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Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

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Trump assassination drives Bitcoin surge

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

The rising probability of Trumps victory has made risky assets such as Bitcoin popular. In particular, the Republican Party mentioned in its latest camp人工智慧gn platform that if Trump takes off, it will end the suppression of cryptocurrencies, which has greatly boosted confidence in the cryptocurrency market.

The “Trump deal” is a hit.

After Trump was attacked over the weekend, a series of Trump-related assets such as U.S. Treasury yields and Bitcoin soared. This is all thanks to the fact that he survived the assassination attempt, and the American peoples support for Trump has soared.

Among them, Bitcoin rose for six consecutive days, with a total increase of 11.59% this week, reaching a high of US$66,000.

There are about 11 days until the next Fed meeting (August 1, 2024)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

市場技術與情緒環境分析

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

情緒分析組件

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

技術指標

價格走勢

In the past week, BTC prices rose 11.59% and ETH prices rose 10.55%.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

上圖是近一周BTC的價格走勢圖。

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

上圖是近一周ETH的價格走勢圖。

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

表格顯示了過去一週的價格變化率。

價量分佈圖(支撐位和阻力位)

In the past week, BTC and ETH formed a new intensive trading area as they rose to high levels and increased in volume.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

上圖為近一週BTC密集交易區域分佈。

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

上圖為近一週ETH密集交易區域分佈。

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

表格顯示了過去一週BTC和ETH的周密集交易區間。

成交量和持倉量

In the past week, BTC and ETH had the largest trading volume when they rose from July 15 to 16; the open interest of BTC and ETH both fell slightly.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

上圖上方為BTC的價格走勢,中間為交易量,下方為持股量,淺藍色為1日均線,橘色為7日均線。 K線的顏色代表當前狀態,綠色表示價格上漲受到成交量的支撐,紅色表示平倉,黃色表示慢慢累積倉位,黑色表示擁擠狀態。

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

上圖上方為ETH的價格走勢,中間為交易量,下方為持倉量,淺藍色為1日均線,橘色為7日均線。 K線的顏色代表當前狀態,綠色表示價格上漲受到成交量的支撐,紅色表示平倉,黃色表示慢慢累積倉位,黑色表示擁擠。

歷史波動率與隱含波動率

In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was the highest when it rose to 7.16; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH rose synchronously.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

黃線是歷史波動率,藍線是隱含波動率,紅點是其7日平均值。

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

事件驅動

There were no major data releases in the past week.

情緒指標

動量情緒

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, Bitcoin was the strongest, while Nasdaq performed the worst.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

上圖為近一周不同資產的走勢。

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

貸款利率_貸款情緒

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 8.9%, and short-term interest rates rose to 12.6%.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

黃線為美元利率最高價,藍線為最高價75%,紅線為最高價75% 7日均線。

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

表格顯示過去不同持有日美元利率的平均回報

資金費率_合約槓桿情緒

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 4.4%, and contract leverage sentiment remained at a low level.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

藍線是BTC在幣安上的資金費率,紅線是其7日平均值

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

The table shows the average return of BTC fees for different holding days in the past.

市場相關性_共識情緒

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week remained at around 0.9, and the consistency between different varieties increased significantly.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx , imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx , sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

市場廣度_整體情緒

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 78% of the prices were above the 30-day moving average, 37% of the prices were above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 33% of the prices were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 67.7% of the prices were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicators in the past week showed that most of the coins in the overall market rebounded and rose.

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

The picture above is [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot , icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator

Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.12-07.19): Trumps assassination drives Bitcoin up

總結

In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) rose for 6 consecutive days, while the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies reached the highest level when they rose on July 16. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum is declining. In addition, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has also risen in tandem. Bitcoins funding rate remains at a low level, which may reflect the continued low leverage sentiment of market participants towards Bitcoin. Market breadth indicators show that most cryptocurrencies have rebounded and risen, indicating that the overall market has rebounded from lows in the past week.

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