Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

Bitcoin falls as Fed remyapay zekans on hold

Since inflation has fallen less quickly than expected, the Federal Reserve has kept its interest rate target range between 5.25% and 5.5% since the end of July last year, the highest level in 23 years. After the interest rate meeting, Bitcoin fell to as low as $62,300 and then rebounded.

As the third quarter draws to a close, most market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. If the fight against inflation continues to make good progress, a rate cut could be announced as early as this years September meeting. This could be a positive factor for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Historically, a lower interest rate environment is good for cryptocurrencies as investors tend to seek higher-yielding assets. Despite the uncertain economic outlook, the prospect of looser monetary policy has boosted positive sentiment toward Bitcoin. However, investors need to be mindful of the risk of prbuz volatility in the short term.

There are about 47 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (September 19, 2024)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

Piyasa teknik ve duyarlılık ortamı analizi

Duygu Analizi Bileşenleri

Teknik göstergeler

Fiyat eğilimi

BTC price rose -0.68% and ETH price rose 0.88% over the past week.

Yukarıdaki resim BTC'nin geçen haftaki fiyat tablosudur.

Yukarıdaki resim ETH'nin geçen haftaki fiyat tablosudur.

Tabloda geçtiğimiz haftadaki fiyat değişim oranları gösterilmektedir.

pctChange1Day3Day5Day7Daybtc_pctChange1.12% -2.14% -3.74% -0.68% eth_pctChange-0.91% -3.44% -1.4% 0.88%

Fiyat Hacim Dağılım Grafiği (Destek ve Direnç)

In the past week, BTC and ETH broke down from the concentrated trading area and then rebounded.

Yukarıdaki resim, geçtiğimiz hafta BTC'lerin yoğun işlem alanlarının dağılımını göstermektedir.

Yukarıdaki resim, geçtiğimiz hafta ETH'lerin yoğun işlem alanlarının dağılımını gösteriyor.

Tablo, geçen hafta BTC ve ETH'nin haftalık yoğun işlem aralığını gösteriyor.

Hacim ve Açık Faiz

In the past week, the trading volumes of both BTC and ETH increased after the August 1 interest rate meeting; the open interest of both BTC and ETH increased slightly.

Yukarıdaki resmin üst kısmı BTC'nin fiyat eğilimini, ortası işlem hacmini, alt kısmı açık pozisyonları, açık mavi 1 günlük ortalamayı, turuncu ise 7 günlük ortalamayı göstermektedir. K çizgisinin rengi mevcut durumu temsil eder, yeşil fiyat artışının işlem hacmi tarafından desteklendiğini, kırmızı pozisyonların kapatıldığını, sarı yavaş yavaş biriken pozisyonları, siyah ise kalabalık durumu ifade eder.

Yukarıdaki resmin üst kısmı ETH'nin fiyat eğilimini, ortası işlem hacmini, alt kısmı açık pozisyonları, açık mavi 1 günlük ortalamayı ve turuncu ise 7 günlük ortalamayı göstermektedir. K çizgisinin rengi mevcut durumu temsil eder, yeşil fiyat artışının işlem hacmi tarafından desteklendiğini, kırmızı pozisyonların kapandığını, sarı yavaş yavaş pozisyonların toplandığını ve siyah ise kalabalık olduğunu gösterir.

Tarihsel Volatilite ve İma Edilen Volatilite

Historical volatility for BTC and ETH was highest this past week at 8.1; implied volatility for both BTC and ETH fell.

Sarı çizgi tarihsel oynaklığı, mavi çizgi ima edilen oynaklığı, kırmızı nokta ise 7 günlük ortalamayı gösteriyor.

Olay odaklı

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged this past week, and after the interest rate meeting, Bitcoin fell to a low of 62,300.

Emotional indicators

Momentum Duyarlılığı

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, gold was the strongest, while Bitcoin performed the worst.

Yukarıdaki resim farklı varlıkların geçen haftaki eğilimini göstermektedir.

Borç Verme Oranı_Kredi Verme Duyarlılığı

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 8.3%, and short-term interest rates rose to 12%.

Sarı çizgi USD faiz oranının en yüksek fiyatı, mavi çizgi en yüksek fiyat olan 75%, kırmızı çizgi ise en yüksek fiyat olan 75%'nin 7 günlük ortalamasıdır.

Tablo, geçmişteki farklı elde tutma günlerinde ABD doları faiz oranlarının ortalama getirisini göstermektedir

Fonlama Oranı_Sözleşme Kaldıraç Duyarlılığı

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 7.9%, and contract leverage sentiment is gradually recovering.

Mavi çizgi BTC'nin Binance'teki fonlama oranı, kırmızı çizgi ise 7 günlük ortalamasıdır

Tablo, geçmişteki farklı tutma günleri için BTC ücretlerinin ortalama getirisini göstermektedir.

Piyasa Korelasyonu_Konsensüs Duyarlılığı

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week was around 0.5, and the consistency between different varieties fell from a high level.

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx , imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx , sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

Pazar Genişliği_Genel Duygu

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 42.5% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 16.5% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 20% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 35% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market maintained a downward trend.

The picture above is [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot , icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator

Özetle

In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) fell after the interest rate meeting, while the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies increased after the interest rate meeting on August 1. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased slightly. In addition, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has decreased simultaneously. Bitcoins funding rate has rebounded slightly from a low level, which may reflect the gradual recovery of market participants leverage sentiment towards Bitcoin. Market breadth indicators show that most cryptocurrencies have retreated, indicating that the overall market has continued to fall in the past week.

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