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SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240903): BTC Stress Resistant Month

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SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240903): BTC Stress Resistant Month

SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240903): BTC Stress Resistant Month

Bitcoin ended August with a drop of 8.6%, and as September began, the market began to discuss seasonal trends. Statistics show that BTC has fallen an average of 4.5% in the past six Septembers. If this trend continues, BTC may fall to $55,000, but strong support is expected around $54,000.

Judging from the local pr얼음 changes, BTC fell to its lowest point in a week the day before yesterday and was supported around US$57,000. It rebounded to around US$59,000 during the day. The change in implied volatility was negatively correlated with the price. After the price rebounded today, the term structure steepened, and the front end gave up 2-3% of the vol increase, which was slightly lower than the median of the past three months, basically the same as Hourlys RV, and there are not many opportunities in VPR.

SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240903): BTC Stress Resistant Month

Source: Deribit (as of 2 MAY 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240903): BTC Stress Resistant Month

Source: SignalPlus, term structure steepens

From the perspective of Vol Skew, the long-term bullish sentiment m일체 포함ntained a high level, and the positive correlation trend between the mid-to-front-end Risky and the price was significant. However, it was worth noting that the increase in BTC and ETH yesterday was quite different. From a macro perspective, the massive outflow of funds from BTC ETF, the selling pressure implied by the negative Coinbase premium index, and the dilemma of declining profits faced by miners cast a shadow on the market sentiment. From the perspective of Flow, ETHs short-term bullish demand helped push up the Risky premium. Although there are still long-term bullish buys on BTC, the selling on the front-end Top Side Wing caused by this round of price increases has undoubtedly suppressed the increase in its Skew.

SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240903): BTC Stress Resistant Month

Source: SignalPlus, Risky rebound

SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240903): BTC Stress Resistant Month

SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240903): BTC Stress Resistant Month

Data Source: Deribit, BTC ETH transaction distribution comparison

SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240903): BTC Stress Resistant Month

Source: SignalPlus, Block Trade

SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240903): BTC Stress Resistant Month

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