Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (August 2–9, 2024): Has recession arrived? U.S. non-farm payrolls in July fell f

Recession has arrived? US non-farm payrolls in July fell far short of expectations

이미지 출처: https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227

The US non-farm payrolls report for July surprised the market, with the number of new jobs hitting a three-and-a-half-year low and the unemployment rate rising to a three-year high, triggering the Sams Rule, a recession indicator with 100% accuracy. Panic spread rapidly, and traders began to bet on the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, and predicted that the rate cut this year would exceed 110 basis points. This week, both US stocks and Bitcoin rebounded after a significant decline.

• The Sahm Rule is an indicator proposed by economist Claudia Sahm to predict economic recessions. The rule is based on changes in the unemployment rate and has a trigger condition: if the three-month moving average employment rate is 0.5 percentage points lower than the highest employment rate in the past 12 months, then the indicator is triggered, indicating that the economy may be about to or has entered a recession.

There are about 40 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (September 19, 2024)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

시장 기술 및 정서 환경 분석

감정 분석 구성 요소

기술 지표

Pr얼음 Trends

BTC price fell -5.61% and ETH price fell -16.26% in the past week.

위 사진은 지난주 BTC 가격 차트입니다.

위 사진은 지난주 ETH 가격 차트입니다.

지난주 가격변동률을 보여주는 표입니다.

가격 분포 차트(지지 및 저항)

In the past week, BTC and ETH fell to a low level and formed a new dense trading area before rebounding.

위 그림은 지난주 BTC의 밀집된 거래 지역 분포를 보여줍니다.

위 그림은 지난주 ETH 밀집 거래 지역의 분포를 보여줍니다.

표는 지난주 BTC와 ETH의 주간 집중 거래 범위를 보여줍니다.

거래량 및 미결제약정

In the past week, both BTC and ETH had the largest trading volume when they fell to 8.5; the open interest of BTC and ETH both fell sharply.

위 사진의 상단은 BTC의 가격동향, 가운데는 거래량, 하단은 미결제약정, 하늘색은 1일 평균, 주황색은 7일 평균을 나타냅니다. K라인의 색상은 현재 상태를 나타내고, 녹색은 가격 상승이 거래량에 의해 뒷받침됨을 의미하고, 빨간색은 포지션 청산을 의미하며, 노란색은 포지션이 천천히 축적되는 상태, 검은색은 혼잡한 상태를 의미합니다.

위 그림의 상단은 ETH의 가격 추세를 나타내고, 가운데는 거래량, 하단은 미결제약정, 연한 파란색은 1일 평균, 주황색은 7일 평균을 나타냅니다. K라인의 색상은 현재 상태를 나타내고, 녹색은 가격 상승이 거래량에 의해 뒷받침됨을 의미하고, 빨간색은 포지션 청산, 노란색은 포지션이 서서히 축적되고 있음, 검은색은 혼잡함을 의미합니다.

역사적 변동성과 내재된 변동성

This past week, historical volatility for BTC and ETH was highest at 8.5, while implied volatility for both BTC and ETH increased.

노란색 선은 과거 변동성, 파란색 선은 내재 변동성, 빨간색 점은 7일 평균입니다.

이벤트 중심

The non-farm data of the past week was significantly lower than expected, which pushed the m일체 포함nstream currencies to continue to decline for several days after the data was released.

감정 지표

모멘텀 감정

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, gold was the strongest, while Bitcoin performed the worst.

위 그림은 지난주 다양한 자산의 추세를 보여줍니다.

대출금리_대출심리

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 11.1%, and short-term interest rates remained at 12.1%.

노란색 선은 USD 금리 최고가, 파란색 선은 최고가 75%, 빨간색 선은 최고가 75%의 7일 평균입니다.

표는 과거 보유일별 USD 이자율의 평균 수익률을 보여줍니다.

펀딩비율_계약 레버리지 감정

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 5.8%, and contract leverage sentiment was gradually declining.

파란색 선은 바이낸스의 BTC 펀딩 비율이고, 빨간색 선은 7일 평균입니다.

표는 과거 보유일별 BTC 수수료의 평균 수익률을 보여줍니다.

시장 상관관계_합의적 감정

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week was around 0.95, and the consistency between different varieties rose to a high level.

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx , imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx , sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

시장폭_전반적인 심리

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 6.3% of them were priced above the 30-day moving average, 12% were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 9% were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 10% were less than 10% from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market maintained a downward trend.

The picture above is [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot , icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator

요약하다

In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) fell sharply on August 5, when the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies reached a peak. The volume of open contracts decreased significantly, while the implied volatility increased simultaneously. Bitcoins funding rate continued to decline, which may reflect the weakening interest of market participants in its leveraged trading. Market breadth indicators show that the prices of most cryptocurrencies fell, and the entire market continued to be under pressure. In addition, the non-agricultural data was significantly lower than expected, which pushed the mainstream currencies to continue to decline for several days after the data was released.

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This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (August 2–9, 2024): Has recession arrived? U.S. non-farm payrolls in July fell far short of expectations

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